- This topic has 391 replies, 49 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 11 months ago by
.
- Posts
Absolutely delighted with that, and I think he will be even better over
further. I’m delighted for Donnacha too, it probably won’t be too much
longer until until he has to hang up his boots with weight problems. First
one of my treble up, if Justify wins the Kentucky Derby tonight I’ll be on
tenterhooks before Soliloquy takes her place in the 1000 Guineas.Congrats to Steve who was on him early and to all that were on him. Well done
also to Nausered for going back in again at 13/2
Huge congrats to the winners! He’s so e horse that!! Couldn’t have been more wrong…
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Cracking performance that.
I still think it’s a poor crop of 3 year old milers but this fella won’t be a miler anyway. He was always a derby horse and to win this almost proves my point to beat so many that will be out and out milers.
6/4 for the Derby with skybet looks quite tempting I have to say.
Well done Nausered.
Steve.. well played Indeed. You were the first to mention him on here and credit where it’s due, he looks very very good. You’ve got a big priced double on the Guineas and Derby with him haven’t you?
Class horse – the way he acclerated to the front was impressive.
The Ballydole experiment of sending Galileo mares to Deep Impact may be a magic formula.
TipTwoWin ran a cracker; a late foal [12 May] but had the magic words ‘quickened’ in one of his races.
ITV team going well over the top imo. He’s a lovely big horse, but they’ve pretty much crowned him a superstar already. I’ll need to watch it a couple more times but verdict straight after the race for me would be workmanlike.
Workmanlike?? Tried to take a lead for longer and hit the front too soon. Was idling final furlong and probably got a bit tired having not run for a while.
Thanks everybody, it’s nice to get one to actually win for a change. I had bets at 20/1 and 16/1 for this race and I have him at 33/1 for the Derby and 66/1 for the Guineas Derby double. I’ll just let the Derby bets ride as I am a small bettor.
Delighted with that and I rate him a better and faster colt than Camelot.
Gustav Klimt ran a fairish race in 6th and the biggest disappointment was probably Expert Eye, who couldn’t beat Murillo home. Surely they will drop him in trip.
With Elarqam going up in trip now and Gustave Klimt a shade disappointing I reckon the value for the St James Palace Stakes is now Tip To Win at 33/1 with William Hill, I doubt those odds will last.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Devil’s advocate glasses on, having watched the reply several times he has won that with his change of gear from 2 out but up that final furlong he wasn’t drawing away from the chasing pack.
His dam (3rd in the 1000g) was tried over 12F once in the Oaks (5th) but then was dropped back to a mile and his full brother was tried over 12F three times but cut little ice and also reverted back to a mile afterwards.
Before the race I was firmly of the opinion that he would need 10-12F based on his RP win but the speed he showed today (off a relative slow early pace) makes me question whether 12F would be really stretching him – can’t see him being a Triple Crown Horse although you could understand why connections would be considering it as kind of ‘unfinished business’
Well done Steve, great result for you
Expert Eye didn’t reverse the form with James Garfield despite the extra distance and the only thing any of his fans can cling onto now would be Stoute does better with older horses but it looks more likely he was a quick maturing two year old perhaps
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Saxon Warrior only a saver for me – showed more speed today than he did last year. Not outstanding as Guineas go but impressive nonetheless, considering liklihood is he’s a middle distance performer. As a big horse he’s got so much scope for more improvement (a big plus for his future). If there was one to make a real top performer in today’s field, this horse was always going to be it. Only negative I can come up with is that size in conjunction with a slightly awkward action… will Epsom on a firmer surface suit? Either way, Jonibake and Steve (amongst others) have a cracking Derby bet!
Masar may be a touch below the Craven form but essentially ran his race, Craven form a bit muddling. Had won by 9 lengths but didn’t beat a great deal allowing for Roaring Lion (who ran better here) disappointing. That said, considering latter travelled well he didn’t find as much as you’d like a 12f horse to when racing over 8. Was that due to being on his own through the latter stages? Temperament issues?
Elarqam ran well enough for one having only a third run. Gustav Klimt disappointed. One surprise – Tip Two Win. Where did that come from? Seemed totally exposed. Delighted for Roger Teal’s small Great Shefford yard. Such a shame Expert Eye looks a shadow of his early two year old days. Just doesn’t have the same enthusiasm, either for soundness or temperament reasons… or both. Horses don’t go from Goodwood’s Champagne to the Dewhurst runless without there being a problem. Stoute doesn’t use appendages very often, noseband a sign of things not going well. Expert Eye highly unlikely to recover his form again.Value Is Everythingremember Tip Two Win wasn’t to far behind Elarqam last season so you cant really knock the form imo his really exciting for the future aswell
LD73, I think that the general rumblings that were coming out of Ballydoyle on the run up
to today’s race, was that he had physically come on a great deal, but whatever he did he
would probably come on for it. I think all things considered it was a very decent effort
and I think he will improve for the move up to 12f. I’m happy with the 11/2 and 13/2 I took,
but like Steve I’m even happier about the 33/1 I took some time back for the Derby. I hope
they can keep him sound.remember Tip Two Win wasn’t to far behind Elarqam last season so you cant really knock the form imo his really exciting for the future aswell
When Tip Two Win met Elarqam in the Sommerville Tatterasall it was his fifth race, Follyhoog. Also having Tangled just a short head away in third that day, make no mistake that form is not of a Guineas placed horse… And today was Tip Two win’s eighth race! In several of those races seemingly putting up performances of a similar merit. ie Tip Two Win’s form seemed established/exposed and breeding only fair… therefore unlikely to improve.
When Elarqam met TTW it was only the Johnston horse’s second run of his life where he’d improved quite a bit from first to second start. Today just his third start and has breeding to die for. So although the form Elarqam showed in the Sommervile was only a 2 1/4 lengths better than TTW, the Johnston horse was far more likely (beforehand) to improve and possibly improve loads.
Just because one horse wasn’t far behind another horse on “form”, does not mean their chance beforehand is always similar. Potential to improve needs to be taken in to account.
Of course, in practice things don’t always turn out as expected.
Value Is EverythingJust got home and…Well done Steve
What a great shout on Saxon Warrior from so far back too.I was thinking of you when Saxon Warrior stormed into the lead, he really deserved to win today and was the best looking horse in the paddock by far (even Elarqam paled in his shadow..
)
It was a great race and I was happy with my boy he tried his best today.Guess you will be retiring if Saxon wins the Derby Steve.
Well done to Nausered and anyone else on the Warrior today, O’Brien and Appleby had the day sewn up between them and I managed to find 3 out of the seven winners at very short odds though.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Elarqam ran well enough for one having only a third run. Gustav Klimt disappointed. One surprise – Tip Two Win. Where did that come from? 
What a great shout on Saxon Warrior from so far back too.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.