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Just a word for Without Parole fans.
You can back him at 12/1 for the St James Palace Stakes. The betting for that race will take a huge change depending on the Guineas result. Of course the winner might contract for Royal Ascot depending who wins but it’s more likely plenty bubbles will burst amongst those ahead of Without Parole in the St James betting at the moment.
Just a thought.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was a bit sad there’s no Ghaiyyath but NRNB was a saviour there.
I backed Klimt at 7/1 a few weeks ago, and have gone in at 7/2 again today. There’s nothing else in the race I like the look of at the prices so for the first time in a fair few years it’s just the one for me in the Guineas.
Gustav Klimt 7/1 & 7/2
Hopefully we’re in for a cracking renewal.
Very nice run down on the runners Steve. I’m with you on Saxon Warrior, he’s one
of those that could be a superstar, I’m just hoping he has the speed to take
this as he will definitely get further. If he does his Derby odds, 7/2 at the
moment, will crumble. It would be nice to have a genuine superstar, fingers
crossed he could be it
Am on GUSTAV KLIMT and HEADWAY each way but it does look tricky!!
Great write up Steve
Thanks guys.
Masar is the favourite now and Saxon Warrior a narrow second best. I did see Gustav Klimt at 15/8 during the week but he touched 5/1 this morning for a while.
I find it hard to think there won’t be money for Saxon Warrior if he looks fit and well. The late money may come for him.
Not much sign of money for Elarqam or Expert Eye and Headway seems the outsider being best backed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice one Steve, a great breakdown of the big race.
Thanks Big G, I got 13-2 from Ladbrokes after we spoke the other day, I ended up having more on than I did at 5-1. Very happy with that now, he should go off favourite today.
I fancied a good bet yesterday evening on Sharja Bridge in the first today, but being as 3-1 was a bit skinny, I placed a large win double instead on the Varian horse Spanish City at Newcastle at 5-2, with Sharja Bridge at 3-1. Atzeni ovbs went up there for the ride, and as per on the AW, a good thing drifted like an absolute barge all afternoon, before being hammered on course. I’ve ended up with quite a lot of money running onto the favourite. 3-1 still looks a bit skinny to me, but he looks by far the most likely winner to me. Anyone have any views on this 1.50 race?
Excellent write up Steve.
Open Guineas as far as no stand out candidate is concerned, but to me it’s hard to see past the first four in the market (or four and a half). I was all set to oppose Masar – who made all in the Craven – but there isn’t as much pace in the race as you might think with a 14 runner field. Murillo could of course be a pacemaker, but he can be left alone; Masar should at least be able to get a prominint posi’. Appleby in great form this season which is a massive plus for his chances this year. Ditto Elarqam/Johnston – Johnston has had other Guineas candidates before, but possibly importantly the trainer is in better form now than other years. Breeding – Frankel/Attraction – and an extremely promising two year old season, is the one potential big improver. Saxon Warrior may well be best at middle distances and will need a strong pace here, but if there’s a real top top notcher in amongst the three year olds… this is it. I wasn’t a great fan of Gustav Klimt as a juvenile, imo over-rated at that stage; but started to fulfil breeding/potential on reappearance – at a time O’Brien’s aren’t usually spot on that early in the season. Greenham form, James Garfield/Raid doesn’t look good enough. My ante-post bet is (unfortunately) Expert Eye, so impressive at Goodwood. Off course a long time before disappointing in the Dewhurst, should’ve won the Greenham – weak in the market… and didn’t. May be he needed the run – is a Stoutey after all? May be he won’t stay – entered in Commonwealth Cup? May be temperament is getting the better of him? Too many question marks at the moment. Prelims/early stages will tell a lot. Expert Eye a possible bet in running opportunity (back or lay). Will be keeping an eye on Roaring Lion for the Derby picture, but disappointed in the Craven despite being well-backed. If something was stopping him from showing his form there it’ll show in the market pre-race (nothing yet).I’ve almost given up on my Expert Eye ante-post bet.
My main bets are now Masar and Elarqam.Value Is EverythingNice work, Steve.
I backed Saxon Warrior and Exoert Eye antepost and had a fiver on Nebo the other day, but raceday value is surely Roaring Lion at 22/1? Even Gosden can get it wrong and a horse he thought “80% fit” on his debut could well have been considerably less.
When Expert Eye finished in that bunch at Newbury, my immediate reaction was that there were no Guineas winners there. But looking again at the race, he wasted plenty of energy in the first half of it and still found enough to be clawing them back at the death. Although connections seem to think his keenness could be offset by campaigning at sprint distances, the Greenham suggested that every yard of the Guineas would be wanted, and he’ll have a much better chance today of settling.
A fascinating race in prospect where I’ve backed more runners than I did in the Grand National. Good luck all.
Fascinating race. I’m so confused that I’ve decided to sit it out betting wise. Would have backed Saxon Warrior purely on the basis of not finding any significant negatives. Will be cheering Elarqam though. Good luck everyone. Can’t wait!
Well done, Steve. You spotted that one on his first run if I recall correctly. Congratulations.
OMG Triple crown attempt please what a horse this horse is a super star so happy !!!!
He showed a lot more speed than I thought he had but then he got a little unbalanced in the dip, which could be a concern for Epsom – credit to Tip Two Win who ran a blinder and turned the form around with Elarqam.
Think Elarqam needs further as I thought he would drop away when the winner just drifted slightly towards him in the dip and Crowley stop riding but he ran on again up the hill and connection may have been right when they initially thought 10F might be his trip – interesting to see if he goes for the Dante.
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