2000 guineas 2018

Please brothers advice me whom to play on Saturday. I am confused

How about each way bets on James Garfield?

AOB will be at Churchill Downs on Saturday for the KD. Back to Newmarket with Ryan for the Sunday.

Cheers Nausered, and you may well be right that Ladbrokes are just tightening the belt a bit.
It’s just dawned on me as well that the merger between Ladbrokes and Coral only went through
in March. I wonder if there is any influence from that side, Coral were the 1st to limit me
to such as 5p…..and I’m not kidding I haven’t haven’t been able to get a bet on
with them for years, and it’s not exactly as if I were clearing out their bank. A couple of
decent wins was all it took.

It’s a pity as I’ve been quite lucky of late with Ladbrokes, and the boosts are very good,
especially with anything 20/1 +. I’ve bet Saxon Warrior twice with them, and I take my hat off
to them that they gave me a good bet on Soliloquay today, 6/1 boosted to 13/2. I hope they both
come up, but they’re gonna love me if they both do as I’ve got a decent double on them too. I
could be persona non grata with them come Sunday afternoon…….I hope that I am

Nebo has been very in and out since running Gustav K to a head, but on that form alone I’ve had a fiver at 130 on Betfair.

@Botchy
We will certainly miss Aiden O’Brien at Newmarket tomorrow, fussing over all his horses in the pre-parade ring and wish him well in the Kentucky Derby. I know he can’t be everywhere all the time but the fact that he’s not going to be at Newmarket could be quite significant.

All fingers crossed for Elarqam to keep his unbeaten record and win for the not so popular Mark Johnston, I want to see him emulate his dad and be 7 lengths ahead at the The Bushes…OK I know that’s not going to happen but I’m so looking forward to being there tomorrow and cheering them home.

It’s a very open race so good luck to all with their chosen horse. Jac

Big stables and talking horses this year imho so I’m with the top jocks at long odds. James Garfield, Headway, Nebo and Cardsharp. Hoping for an exciting race up the middle of the track. Good luck everyone

Gustav Klimt was way too short. I am not convinced he beat much on his comeback. US Navy Flag and Kenya ran like drains and Imaging hadn’t looked the fastest horse in the world first time up this year. I have him to a fiver stake at 33/1 as my first dart from last season but I am hopeful, rather than confident.

I reckon that Saxon Warrior could go off favourite at 5/2 if he looks the part tomorrow. He and Elarqam are the two possible “Genie not out of the bottle yet” colts. We have seen weaknesses in most of the contenders and despite concerns about Saxon Warrior at the mile, O’Brien has always maintained that he and Ryan Moore thought the colt didn’t lack pace. In the Racing Post Trophy he got back in front of Roaring Lion well before the finishing line and maintained his advantage to the line, it was by no means a “Last stride” job.

1. CARDSHARP (Drawn 3)

A decent 2YO but he seemed caught up and surpassed by others last season. Poor on his seasonal reappearance and hard to imagine him involved in this. Cautionometer Rating 1/10

2. ELARQAM (Drawn 11)

Dream breeding and won both starts at 2YO. The Group 3 Somerville Stakes he won has seen some good winners but none went on to lift the Guineas. The form of that race has not worked out well though and it’s a while since the trainer has tasted Classic success despite reporting strong confidence in a few of his contenders coming in. Cautionometer Rating 7/10

3. EXPERT EYE (Drawn 4)

Looked a bit special on his second start and went into the Dewhurst as warm favourite for both it and the Guineas. A complete flop that day and a big drifter for this race in the aftermath. Not a bad run in the Greenham, staying on after racing a bit free early, he may just find this a tougher stamina test and he does need to come on from Newbury by a fair bit to score here. Cautionometer 7/10

4. GUSTAV KLIMT (Drawn 5)

Just an average effort on debut but he was much better on his next start, showing a good burst to take his race nicely. 33/1 for the Guineas looked worth taking and after meeting with trouble in running in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting he came again to get back up and shorten for the Guineas. A setback meant we never saw him again and although he made a winning reappearance this season, it was on heavy ground and against three horses who either under-performed badly or didn’t look the strongest of contenders coming in. May come on again though and a contender given the trainer’s record. Cautionometer 8/10

5. HEADWAY (Drawn 6)

Decent record at 2YO without quite looking top class. Won easily on his return to the track this year but the runner up was stone last in the Free Handicap next time and after starting at 5F as a 2YO his stamina is a question for me in this better company. Trainer has been starved of success in Classics for a while now and hard to see this horse changing that. Cautionometer 5/10

6. JAMES GARFIELD (Drawn 7)

Speedy 2YO who had a good level of talent to go with it. Successful in the Greenham at Newbury when Expert Eye was a very uneasy favourite for the traditional Guineas trial. The big questions are whether the mile will suit Scott’s colt and everything logically pointing towards Expert Eye gaining revenge this time. Trainer is just 1 from his last 20 runners and that 1 was James Garfield himself. Cautionometer 6/10

7. MASAR (Drawn 14)

Some very nice bits of form last season,including a third place behind Happily and Olmedo in the Group 1 Lagardere, when the soft ground might not have suited. Was out to 33/1 for this race after an awful effort when odds-on in Dubai, running to a RPR of 22. Couldn’t have won more impressively than he did in the Craven, bounding away to thrash the field 9 lengths and more. That is visually the best effort in this race but Roaring Lion stank the place out, running 20 lbs short of his best on RPRs. Has to be respected greatly on that one effort but just a nag that the rest of his form may just come up short. Cautionometer 8/10

8. MURILLO (Drawn 8)

Third in the Coventry at Royal Ascot but never really built on that with only one more run afterwards. It seems he’s clearly here to make the pace for O’Brien’s other two, as the sacrificial lamb. Name your price on him. Cautionometer 1/10

9. NEBO (Drawn 13)

Managed to finish 2nd to Gustav Klimt in the Superlative Stakes but he was hugely flattered after the O’Brien horse had a troubled passage and did very well to get up again and win it. That seems ages ago and more relevant form is Nebo’s effort in the Free Handicap where he was 6th, beaten more than 8 lengths. That’s well short of what is needed here and he’s not sure to be suited by the mile on what is his 10th start. Cautionometer 2/10

10. RAID (Drawn 2)

Very lightly raced and experience is a question here. Won a late season maiden at Doncaster on soft ground quite nicely and then not disgraced in the Greenham when 4th. You wouldn’t be 100% sure he will stay and the other negative is the Greenham 5th (Just 3/4 length behind Raid) Fighting Irish, was stone last of 10 behind Invincible Army, beaten more than 12 lengths next time. Too many negative factors for me, so it’s a Cautionometer of 4/10 for this double carpet shot.

11. RAJASINGHE (Drawn 1)

Somewhat of a surprise packet when landing the Coventry Stakes, Rajasinghe split US Navy Flag and Invincible Army when third to Cardsharp in the July Stakes at Newmarket. That was a decent enough run but he was only 11th of 12 behind US Navy Flag in the Middle Park and then 11th of 14 behind Mendelssohn in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. It’s a big if for me whether Rajasinghe will stay a mile. The Breeders Cup mile on firm ground is way different to a mile at Newmarket. That leaves a Cautionometer rating of 3/10

12. ROARING LION (Drawn 12)

If I had written this preview before the Craven Roaring Lion would have had a good bit higher rating. He was progressive last season, beating Nelson narrowly in the Royal Lodge and then giving Saxon Warrior a huge fright in the Racing Post Trophy. The trouble is that Roaring Lion looked devoid of pace in the Craven, being led a merry dance by Masar and then letting White Mocha past to finish nine length runner up to Masar. Has a mountain to climb now, even if he improves for his opening run of the year. Cautionometer is 5/10 only by dint of a 1 pt boost for the trainer.

13. SAXON WARRIOR

Came to my attention by the way came home to win his maiden on debut. When the jockey pulled him out to challenge that day he simply took off and finished clear of his field by more than 3 lengths. Despite facing much stiffer opponents in the Group 2 Beresford he was a shade of odds on and beat the lot of them quite cosily despite being a shade green still. In the Racing Post Trophy Roaring Lion finished powerfully to take up the running but Saxon Warrior dug deep and had re-established a narrow lead far enough before the line than a “Last Gasp” win that you sometimes see. The obvious question is whether he has the pace to keep tabs with horses who have been winning over shorter? For me no horse is really ever a 10/10 chance and with a point knocked off for speed questions it’s a Cautionometer of 8/10 for the unbeaten Saxon Warrior in the hands of the most prolific Guineas winning trainer.

14. TIP TWO WIN

His best effort was when runner up to Elarqam in the Somerville. Has won twice in Doha but didn’t need to be at his best to land those races, getting 96 and 100 for his two successes from the Racing Post. Trainer is bullish but for me it’s all a bit Walter Mitty stuff and I pray for the sake of race quality that this likeable enough colt doesn’t win here. He should establish himself at a bit lower level than this and the Cautionometer has stopped with the needle reading 3/10.

That’s it then, no silly 10/10 ratings here and three tied on 8/10.

Saxon Warrior and Gustav Klimt for O’Brien and Masar for Charlie Appleby are my top three.

Going was given as good/good to soft places at 3PM today. That should make it enough of a test to rule out sprinters but will it be enough for those needing a minimum of a mile and perhaps aimed towards Epsom next?

Timeform and At The Races have tipped Saxon Warrior. The Racing Post have napped Saxon Warrior and their tip box gives Saxon Warrior the biggest number of tips with six. Surprisingly perhaps, Gustav Klimt only has one tip. Masar and Expert Eye have three tips each and Elarqam two. Gustav Klimt is narrowly still favourite but it’s shaping to me like Saxon Warrior will go off favourite.

Good Luck everybody.

I’ve got no money on Masar Jac. Gustav and Saxon Warrior plus a bet on Expert Eye at terrible odds from last year as a mini saver. I’ll be screaming for Saxon Warrior if he’s in the shake up. He’ll be as short as a carrot for the Derby if winning this but it’s a bit of a dream still.