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Brocklebank mentions that US Navy Flag’s last two runs were poor but that he has now had six runs. He also then says Saxon Warrior has had two. Surely if there is an “Ideal” number of runs at six runs, then twelve is way too many to meet the statistic.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
At 5-1 NRNB, I’ve been happy to take a chance on Saxon Warrior here. Doubt the horse has done much wrong, Gustav came out and won well, Ryan was probably going to be riding him. So Saxon drifts a bit.
O’Brien normally wins the 2000 with the obvious one, who heads straight to the race. I think 5-1 is a value price about him. I’d say him and Gustav have around the same chance myself, yet Saxon is more than twice the price.
The stable very often get it wrong when they have two colts of similar ability. There’s not much in it from my slant, and Saxon could still be an absolute superstar. I doubt Gustav is.
So who do we think will be riding Gustav & who will be on Saxon, with Ryan stateside?
Saxon Warrior out to 6/1 with Ladbrokes. The only news that
has come about is that AOB has mentioned that the jockey arrangements would
probably be Seamie Heffernan on Gustav Klimt and Donnacha O’Brien on Saxon warrior.
I kind of expected that as Donnacha rode Saxon Warrior in his first race, so I
wouldn’t read too much into the arrangements as they are at the moment. AOB did
say that those were open to change. I’ve added to my 11/2 with the 6/1, I don’t
see any reason not to
Thank you G. I’m happy about that too. What racing father is not going to want to have two sons that have won the 2000? Like you I thought it would probably be Donnacha having ridden him before.
I backed him two days ago at 5’s nrnb, I’ll be heading to the Ladbrokes site right now thanks G, hopefully the will boost it to 13-2 or 7’s
Intriguing to hear from AOB about how much Saxon Warrior has changed physically from 2 -3. For me that could mean that he has improved into something special or the flipside that he may have lost his ability which may have been ahead of his physical development and has stalled. We shall see………on jockey arrangements and vibes, presumably with Frankie sniffing around for better offers before settling for James Garfield I’m inclined to be somewhere towards the latter camp….hope I’m wrong.
Nausered, yes they did boost the 6/1 to 13/2. I’m grateful for their boost, I’ve done well
with Ladbrokes over the past couple of months, but I’m beginning to think my account is
going the way it did with Coral some years back. Every time I place a bet now I get the
message “our traders are considering your bet as the requested stake is higher than the
standard limit” Apologies for going off topic, but it is starting to bug me. When I say
I’ve been doing well, on the scale of things for Ladbrokes it’s peanuts, and my bets
rarely exceed 50 quid. I’m a straight forward punter, I pick the best price on whatever
bookie and bet it, I’ve never “arbed” in my life. The strange thing is I tried to place
a golf bet, £15e/w at 33/1 on Tommy Fleetwood in the 1st round betting in the Wells Fargo
Championship, and as usual I get the same message and they offer £10 e/w. I decided to
decline it and wait a bit (10 mins) I thought maybe if I go £20 e/w they might drop it to
the £15 e/w I initially wanted……they took the bet
Amnyway, rant over and that’s it out of my system now. Good luck all (as long as they
bet on Saxon Warrior
)I’ve had a look at the previous AOB winners of this race and two things that stand out to me are:
1. Every winner had his first start of the season (Gustav Klimt has a prep run)
2. The winners of the RP Trophy took it in taking style, quickening smartly. (Saxon made to work hard)I’ve had my fingers burnt before from trends going against AOB runners. Venice Beach at last years Chester meeting was one time, can’t remember what trend that was though
I will be having a look at this race very soon but my eye is drawn to Elarqam on all known form in my head. I’ve seen a few comments about how being trained by Johnston is off-putting but if he has the right horse and you feel that horse has the right qualities then you should back him. MJ is an excellent trainer, albeit a frustrating one at times.
Intriguing to hear from AOB about how much Saxon Warrior has changed physically from 2 -3. For me that could mean that he has improved into something special or the flipside that he may have lost his ability which may have been ahead of his physical development and has stalled.
Aiden said “We’ve probably never had a horse to change so much over winter as he has – he’s turned into a monster of a horse – big, powerful and strong,”
With my stake soon to be returned on Without Parole, I’ve backed Elarqam at 5/1.
That’ll do me.
Good luck all.
A fascinating renewal in a year I maintain will be a poor crop of 3 year old milers.
US Navy Flag doesn’t run.
Trip elsewhere maybe or back to 6 or 7 furlongs?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!He is entered in the Kings Stand, 5f and Commonwealth Cup 6f along with a couple of 8f races. I only know that because, when I look at the Guineas card I tend to rule out any horses that have entries in those sort of races. O’Brien horses tend to be entered in all the 10f/12f races . [You watch either Nebo or Raid hose up now having eliminated them for the same reason!!]
Jack, I can’t find the quote but I’m pretty sure I read yesterday that AOB
mentioned that US Navy Flag was likely to head for the french 2000 guineas.Cheers, Moehat and BigG.
I see the French Guineas is now the target- wouldn’t be for me now!
Might well end up going back sprinting.
I think you’ll be ok on those two moehat!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I was on elarqam at 33/1 as i said earlier in this, but im not sure how confident i am of johnston getting him ready at home, has them ready to fire FTO in maidens,this slightly different lol… ill probably lay some off as id mych rather he had a prep…
Gustav looks the likely winner for me now, dont have any fancy prices about him but 5/2 ish seems fair enough, probably wont have a bet on him though… james garfield a fav of mine, but ive always thought a mile stretched him, although i do like a prep coming into this,unless your AOB…. will probably add in expert eye e/w along with my elarqam bet,
Good luck
US Navy Flag looked a bust to me on seasonal debut. I tried as much as I could to dissuade people from backing him for this race. I’ll be against him wherever he turns up next.
Interesting stat noted today on ATR is that all eight of O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas winners were having their seasonal debut. That would rule Saxon Warrior in and Gustav Klimt out.
Interesting to see how Saxon Warrior looks on Saturday, and a comment was made that Donnacha may have limited time in the saddle and perhaps few opportunities to land a Classic.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s an oft quoted stat that isn’t it Stevie? Aiden made the point the other day on ATR that there has never been a very good prep race for the Guineas until this year. He doesn’t like sending them all the way over here for the Craven as it is too close to the Guineas, same for the Greenham and it is only now that they have this new 7f Guineas trial at Leopardstown that has prompted him to use it. So I wouldn’t worry about the 8 previous winners stat. Horses can make fools of us all but I would be very surprised if Saxon Warrior wins this. He screams middle-distances to me.
I would also be wary of saying that the milers are going to be pants this year before we have even had the Guineas, MOM. Maybe they will but not sure how you can tell that now? Elarqam is unbeaten, Masar was brilliant last time, Gustav Klint has done nothing wrong, Expert Eye looked like Kingman at Goodwood and Saxon Warrior is “a monster” who might show me up. Plenty in there who could be very decent. Time will tell.
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