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Steve, I hear what you are saying and you may well be right that US Navy Flag
and Murillo will try and set it up for the other pair. I do think that Jac has
a point here, and we’ve seen before the AOB 3rd, 4th string….eg Wings Of Eagles
do much better than the market expected. I think Saxon Warrior will be the one.
I backed him at 33s, along with Nelsons 33s, in the Derby (mentioned ages back on
that thread) but I didn’t have a penny on him here until a few days back when I
took the 11/2 (in ante post comp thread). I also took Murillo at 50s NRNB with
Bet365, although Betvictor have him at 66s. I thought he might have been a tad
unlucky in the Coventry, with US Navy Flag well beaten. Hard to make excuses for
him in 3rd next time out in the Railway Stakes at the Curragh, although it came
only 11 days after the Coventry and that might have been asking a lot at 2. He
needs to have trained on and improved to have any hope here, but at 50/1 (or 66s
without a guaranteed run) I think he’s worth a few quid. I’ll settle for a one two
Shame Without Parole is now a non runner as I thought he was a bit of a dark horse – that being said, this could be a blessing in disguise as the race could have come a little early in his developement bearing in mind that he only set foot on a racecourse for the 1st time on 17 December.
Saxon Warrior is being nibbled in again now. A few firms have him at 4/1 now.
I have thrown a few darts at the race and a few have fallen by the wayside but I have generally played at big odds and that doesn’t need much money putting on each selection.
Expert Eye winning would leave me down on the race but I’ll make a profit if Gustav Klimt or Saxon Warrior win. I did Gustav Klimt after he won his maiden and he was 33/1 then. I did Saxon Warrior at 20/1 and 16/1 before and after the Racing Post Trophy, when it was generally thought that he would not run in the Guineas and would be a pure Derby horse.
I am not particularly confident on either of them to be honest but I would love it if Saxon Warrior could win and set up my Guineas/Derby double bet at 66/1 before the Racing Post Trophy.
Quite an open race this year and Without Parole may have had a shot but for the injury to his foot. I don’t fancy Roaring Lion at all, his Craven effort was very weak form. Elarqam is too short for me and the trends rule him out in respect of the previous race he won. I’m not a Johnston fan either, it always seems pot luck as to whether they run well or flop completely after winning impressively the time before.
Masar romped away in the Craven and at face value he’d have a massive chance here. The downside is that he seemed in and out of form at 2YO, at a level you would normally think was short of Guineas class. His run in Dubai prior to the Craven was an absolute shocker, even allowing for the track. He recorded a RPR of 22 that day and that was why he was available at 33/1 for the Guineas going into the Craven. He looked in great nick at Newmarket and it may be that other colts will catch up with him during the season, the big question being whether he can maintain the advantage in early May, before others get going.
Expert Eye ran OK in the Greenham, his rating was much higher than the “Flop” comments that came from some critics. I’ll take him in a match bet with Roaring Lion for sure. Expert Eye will have to settle better though and, in general, Michael Stoute seems well short of his glory days now. Not as bad as Roger Charlton by any means but he seems to need more time with his horses these days. Charlton on the other hand is normally just getting going by the Ebor meeting.
I thought US Navy Flag was appalling on his return to action and he’s pretty exposed now. He has tons to make up on Gustav Klimt and for that reason alone I couldn’t have him for this.
Masar is the one I probably fear most but Elarqam is far from exposed and could pop up in a race with no real solid standout candidate.
Good Luck everybody.
Hopefully it’s SAX ON The Beach
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve,
On one run Us Navy Flag has tons to find with Klimt.
We are talking about a horse that clearly took a good while to work things out.
His run ahead of Mendelssohn doesn’t look too bad now, and with that in mind GK would actually have to find more to reach his level. Highest RPR 122.
I would say the better ground and first run will see US Navy Flag run a fair bit better- probably won;t be enough, as it did take him more than 1 run last year to show his best run.
GK is unexposed don’t get me wrong, and with less races behind him, you’d imagine has more room for improvement, but he still has to do that.
GK had Great Prospector 3/4 L in behind, where GK was probably value for a good few lengths, but would it have equated to the 7.5 US Navy Flag beat him? Not sure.
Wouldn’t give up on US Navy Flag and at the price i don’t think he’s the worst bet as i could really see him finish in the money.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!At least I’ll get me money back on without parole.
Now between Gustav and Elarqam for me. Not sure who I’ll back of the two but I’ll wait a few days now.
Gutted with the news that Without Parole is not running. I was planning to back him.
Now Dettori does not have a ride. I think he will ride either Gustav Klimt/Saxon Warrior for AOB since Moore will be in Kentucky.Would be very wary of Masar as I think his overall his form doesn’t scream guineas winner plus you have to take the Craven race with an unhealthily large pinch of salt, he was race fit, the favourite ran a shocker and overall it wasn’t a particularly strong renewal of the race.
From last year’s running of the race we know that a visually impressive winner doesn’t always mean that that run will be replicated in the big one a few weeks later – it could be that Masar may have had all things fallen into place for that particular race. Can’t see him getting that kind of freedom on the front end come Saturday.
Like Elarqam (bred to win a guineas) a lot but I am worried about his inexperience going into this race although there was a lot to like about the way he went through his racecourse gallop – GK surprised me when winning on his debut on bad ground (most of AOB’s have badly needed the first run of the season) but having thought about it some more I would imagine that he may have done a lot more work over other stablemates based on the fact that he hadn’t run since Newmarket’s July meeting last year. I do like the fact he has won on good to firm and heavy, just hope the Leopardstown race hasn’t left its mark on him.
Maybe I will be proved wrong but I can’t have Saxon Warrior as I see him as a 10/12F horse who may get tapped for pace at a vital stage of the race bearing in mind he took a age to get organised in the Racing Post Trophy before clearly outstaying Roaring Lion. He was a big old unit last year and I would worry about how he would handle being asked to quicken down into the dip, could well see him staying on once they met the rising ground to grab a place.
I think was was the jockey arrangement Austin, but when Without Parole was pulled
out it made sense to switch in Dettori who rode James Garfield in his last 4 runnings.Jack, Gustav Klimt does have only the one race over US Navy Flag but it is THE most relevant run, simply because it’s the most recent. What happened last season is of less relevance than what we saw from the pair on 14th of April this year.
In the trial race this season, Gustav Klimt recorded his best figure so far, while US Navy Flag ran 46 lbs below his best RPR figure. The fact is that US Navy Flag ran awfully on his latest two starts and his personal best is getting on for 7 months ago and that’s a long time for young horses, with big changes possible.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
So I would rule out any outside the top 5 in the betting. From that point on the first I would rule out is Saxon Warrior. I don’t believe that the Racing Post Trophy was good 1m form. Both he and Roaring Lion will surely be better over further. If you want more evidence see The Royal Lodge where RL and Nelson finished upsides. Aiden didn’t even enter Nelson for the Guineas because he is not a miler – yet he almost beat RL over a mile who almost beat SW. I’d be amazed if SW wins this.
Of the other 4 any could win. Gustav Klint was always my idea of Aiden’s best Guineas hope but I missed any decent prices and couldn’t back him now. The Superlative performance was impressive but it wasn’t a great field and we don’t quite know what he beat last time. He will surely close and could easily win it but not for me at the prices.
Elarqaam is my heart pick and I would love nothing more than to see him romp home like mum and dad did. I will be shouting him on for Jac as well but I don’t think he’ll carry my money. Like Steve said, he is plenty short enough for a twice raced winner with something to prove form-wise.
So the two for me will probably be Masar and Expert Eye. I am sure that if Masar was trained by AOB he would be 6-4. I always liked him as a 2 year-old and he had very good form in a couple of races and genuine excuses for his poor runs at Del Mar and Meydan. He was always going to be a better 3 year-old and he was seriously impressive last time. You don’t win a Craven by 9 lengths without being half-decent and he has proven he is fit, handles the track, gets a mile well and has the best form this year by a country mile. His trainer couldn’t be in better form and he will surely run his race. I am certain he will finish in the 3 so 5-1 is decent value I think.
Expert Eye has so many “ifs” to answer but IF he answers them he could still be a decent price. The other day I watched his Goodwood win again and it really was jaw-dropping. He then had a setback and clearly wasn’t right at Newmarket. He ran ok at Newbury considering he was fizzed up and didn’t settle and was running on ground that would have been soft enough. Stoute’s horses have clearly needed their first starts and I think we will see a much better horse on Saturday. I am convinced he was the best horse in the Greenham and he will be suited by the likely fast pace (agree that US Navy will cut it out and try and set it up for his stablemates) and (hopefully) better ground. He has a very high cruising speed and I can see Andrea finding cover and delivering him late. I think you can still get 10’s. That would be a decent ew bet for me. Good luck all!!
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The Sporting Life sees Matt Brocklebank analysing the stats for the 2000 Guineas. He needn’t have bothered because he’s made a balls of it.
Regarding the number of runs previous winners have had coming into the the Guineas, he states that US Navy Flag has had SIX runs and Saxon Warrior has had TWO. That’s a load of Tom Kite because US Navy Flag has run TWELVE times and Saxon Warrior THREE times.
Come on for God’s sake, how hard is it to check and get the facts straight?
Poor standard.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, always possible to forgive a horse a run. He’s 20/1 and has course form, and has ran to higher figures than most.
A lot of O’Briens tend to need a run back. He clearly isn’t suited to heavy ground and “will grow another leg” according to AOB.
My main worry would be him seeing out the trip as well as the others.
He’s overpriced for me that’s the main thing. At 5/2 GK is plenty short, and whilst that’s a promising reappearance, how good is Imaging?
I think the likeliest winners are Elarqam (trainer could be a worry but he’s a promising horse) and Saxon Warrior. The latter at the price could be a bet.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s worse than that Steve, he says the following 8 all have 6 runs……
Cardsharp (had 11)
Mascar (had 7)
James Garfield (had 8)
Headway……correct
Hay Gaman (had 8)
Tip Two win (had 7)
Nebo (had 9)
Navy Flag (had 12)Has he been sniffing glue or what
I wouldn’t have any concerns about U S Navy Flag’s ability to see out the mile – on pedigree he’s a near certainty.
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