2000 guineas 2018

With 34mm of rain forecast, the bulk of which on Monday, we could have a soft ground Guineas. Gustav Klimt has proven heavy ground form, but that would open the race up considerably to the likes of Chilean and Hey Gaman.

Chilean was pumped the other day. No danger of him winning this.

Trainer said Wootton runs in the French 2000.

Gosden didn’t rule Without Parole out of the Guineas but he did say “This is an unusual place (Yarmouth) to come for a Guineas Trail”. He also said “I don’t think Without Parole is a a mile and a half horse, he’ll likely be a mile/mile and a quarter horse. He’ll run in something decent next time”

Bet365 are going NRNB and they’re also offering 40/1 about Ghaiyyath, of whom I’ve had a fair e/w bet on. He’s won on both visits to the Rowley Mile, both coming over the distance and impressively won his maiden on soft ground so any rain wouldn’t be a worry. The 2nd and 3rd from that day have since racked up 3 wins, a second and a third from their 5 subsequent runs. He followed that up to run out a ready winner of the Autumn Stakes; Purser (3rd) and Flag Of Honour (5th) have both come out and boosted the from.

Ghaiyyath is wonderfully bred being by Dubawi out of the 2006 Irish 1000 Guineas winner Nightime (herself by Galileo). No ground worries at all, the stable’s flying along and I thought he was wonderfully put together when I saw him at HQ last October.

More than a fair bet at 40/1 NRNB in my opinion to go into the book with Klimt.

Roaring Lion could still run

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018/April/29/roaring-lion-and-without-parole-to-be-left-in-guineas-as-gosden-watches-weather

Wootton confirmed OUT of the Guineas as 17 are left in of the 69 entries.

Saxon Warrior is still in for now along with Without Parole and Roaring Lion.

A cracking price for US Navy Flag @ 16’s NRNB.

Seems to be totally totally wrote off by the bookies. He never really got much credit for winning the Middle Park / Dewhurst double, which has only been achieved 5 times in the last 170 years.

You can sort of understand people writing him off with the number of runs he has had as a 2YO. But when you look at his full sister Roly Poly she had 18 runs between 2 and 3. Again she was considered a sprinter early on last year but she won 3 G1’s at a mile, also running second to Winter in the Irish Guineas and Coronation. Her first G1 win was actually her 13th career run.

USNF improved 11 lbs for stepping up to 7F in the Dewhurst and won very easily from the worst draw. Even Mendelsshon could not go with him and was getting pushed along 2 out.

I really think given good ground he could well improve at a mile like his sister.

I can see your angle Botchy, price wise, and he will be certain to improve, but he might just need another run or two for me.

Agree Jack, that’s the worry allright

Weather drying up at last here, think we might see perfect going over the weekend.

Steve . AOB throwing smoke and mirrors at the Guineas yet again if either of those pacemakers win it will be no big surprise, and possibly the best he has trained

Now The Lion is back I’m looking forward to seeing how much he has improved since his last race as he hasn’t grown much, still a bit of a baby, and he could still need this, but Gosden is the Master at bringing a horse on for its second run and he won’t line up if Gosden doesn’t think him fit.

Elarqam was definitely well after his gallop down the Rowley Mile, not blowing at all, and will handle the uphill finish better with his striking turn of foot and running in the hoofprints of his dad

Elarqam & Roaring Lion against the field on Saturday Jac

We’re all in with a chance, don’t be swayed and stay true to your gut instincts..

Without Parole ruled out with a bruised foot