March 21, 2018 at 19:50 #1347747botchy1Participant
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is Gold Town deserving of that price?
As I would be very much inclined to back Mendelssohn at 7/2.
Mendelssohn’s price is way out, doubt you will get 2/1 never mind 7/2.
BP now 11/4March 21, 2018 at 21:08 #1347754
Aiden O’Brien had this to say about Saxon Warrior:-
“Saxon Warrior was a big two-year-old but he’s done very well and has put on plenty of weight,” reported O’Brien. “He has become a massive colt, a big monster of a horse.
“We have our eyes on the Guineas and I just hope we have him ready in time. He’s more likely to have a racecourse gallop than a race before we decide about Newmarket.”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 21, 2018 at 22:06 #1347758
Gold Town was about a stone behind the best of the 2YO’s last season. He only won two of his six races in his first season.
Since then, he has bolted up twice and risen from an OR of 91 to 107. He’s got the advantage of form at the track and on the dirt, as well as being forward of where Mendelssohn is likely to be, despite the dubious looking peak rating from the Racing Post for Dundalk.
On Mendelssohn’s side we have the fact that he is still ahead of Gold Town on ratings and looking at the UAE Guineas it seemed an awful renewal. Sure, Gold Town bolted home by more than 10 lengths but the runner up was an 80/1 shot who was beaten 28 lengths coming in and went on to be beaten 32 lengths on his next start. Gotti’s three Racing Post ratings for that stretch were 9, 88, 40 and that looks like a flimsy set of figures to be trusting.
Third horse in the UAE Guineas was Last Voyage and he ran to something like his mark on RPR’s if we believe the RPR for Gold Town but he stank the place out next time, running to 46 in the same race where Gotti flopped. Funny that both horses were awful next time.
Overall the form of Gold Town’s two races stinks the place out to high heaven, reading, in terms of runs, wins, places, unplaced, as a combined:-
Runs 46, Wins 1, Places 8, Unplaced 37
I couldn’t back Gold Town at 5/4 on the back of that but the trouble is that I was not sure Mendelssohn did enough enough on his return to risk the 7/2 in the hope he definitely shows up.
In the end I went with the filly Rayya for the UAE Derby as a speculative selection. In theory she has plenty to find but she is a sweet travelling filly and I thought she recorded a good personal best last time. She scampered away easily that day and may just have found her form after her impressive debut was followed by a nose defeat and a second defeat from Winter Lightning. At 14/1 she may just pull a surprise win off the front end.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 21, 2018 at 22:34 #1347762
“Mendelssohn’s price is way out, doubt you will get 2/1 never mind 7/2.
BP now 11/4”
Ah…I see. Well he was 7/2 yesterday (Tues 20th) and had been for a week.
I suppose I should have factored in the flurry of O’Brien interviews this midweek and guessed he might shorten.
5/2 less appealing obviously but still the more attractive bet between the front two.March 22, 2018 at 07:24 #1347772botchy1Participant
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Ah…I see. Well he was 7/2 yesterday (Tues 20th) and had been for a week.
RR yes he was 7/2 most of yesterday also.I went back to have another bet and saw it had changed from earlier.
Mendelssohn’s price is way out, doubt you will get 2/1 never mind 7/2
What i was meaning to say is Mendelssohn should be FAV over the Godolphin horse, 7/2 was far too big.March 22, 2018 at 15:09 #1347798
According to Aiden O’Brien Amedeo Modigliani and The Pentagon are unlikely to run in the Guineas.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 27, 2018 at 15:35 #1348234
Not looking good for Wootton at all, pushed out to 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
I would imagine that leaves Godolphin with nothing at all for this race, just for a change
One less for Saxon Warrior to worry about though and he’s nibbled down from 8/1 into 5/1 in a few places now over the last couple of weeks.
Elarqam is firming up towards a clear second favourite now.
Mendelssohn, Seahenge and Threeandfourpence are all due out in the UAE Derby on Saturday in search of points towards the Kentucky Derby.
Herculean is unlikely to be ready for the Guineas according to Teddy Grimthorpe. I can just imagine Roger Charlton giving the “He’ll make a lovely 4YO” speech at some stage this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 27, 2018 at 20:21 #1348263Mike007Participant
- Total Posts 1500
I’ve split my win stakes with the two O brien horses at 6s and 7s. And done the Saxon Warrior classic double at 25s as well.
I,like others, have an Expert Eye AP bet at 7-2 when he was good, but as that was a free bet I lose nothing.March 27, 2018 at 23:15 #1348275
I managed to stuff a saver on my ante-post bets on Expert Eye, at 4/1 I think. The logic was that he might go into the winter very short with a good performance in the Dewhurst. Not sure at all about him now.
Should Saxon Warrior win this and then the Derby, I can probably go several seasons betting with the bookies money. Still an unlikely prospect for now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 28, 2018 at 03:49 #1348285
It makes you laugh when the racing press have a headline and then you read that it’s probably a load of crap.
The Racing Post lead with the “News” that Saxon Warrior may take in a trial before the Guineas. When you read the article, O’Brien then says:-
Saxon Warrior could go to the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown although it’s more likely he’ll go straight to Newmarket once we think he’s ready
Also, a bit of news for the trainer. Err, how can I say this? I’m sorry, but the Guineas will be when it is, not when the horse is ready
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.March 28, 2018 at 08:16 #1348286hamParticipant
- Total Posts 2449
Tbf steve, if none of the obrien bunch where ready, they might push it back until they areMarch 28, 2018 at 12:34 #1348306
Agree this is a bit of a non-story based on where we stand at the moment and O’Brien’s actual comments.
However, if Saxon Warrior did take in a trial it would I think point to a couple of potential linked conclusions.
Firstly that the Guineas is a really important race for him and they will take all actions possible to give him the best chance.
Secondly by taking in a trial he would become a more (April to September) horse rather than (May to Oct/Nov).
I might be overthinking this but I would suggest that Aidan might have a crack at the Triple Crown on the agenda for this fellow. The Camelot reverse has got to have hurt at Ballydoyle and whilst they got extremely lucky in a way below average year for 3yos the controversial circumstances around Enke must have been particularly hard to bear. Anyway as pointed out I don’t think it (taking in a trial) will happen but if it did a big pointer to a Triple Crown bid with SW for me.
I think Nijinsky took in a trial before Newmarket in his 3yo year (not 100% on that, maybe someone can confirm) and his form certainly tailed off after Doncaster St Leger. Not comparing SW to Nijinsky in terms of achievement just yet but both in terms of legacy and establishing him as a sire…having a poke at the Triple Crown is, I think, in their minds already.March 29, 2018 at 09:55 #1348369
I see Saxon Warrior has contracted this morning to 16/1 (from 25s) for the Guineas & Derby double.
That is pretty much how I would rate the true odds so I have stopped topping up now.March 29, 2018 at 16:08 #1348386VoleurParticipant
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To be perfectly honest RR, I’m not sure Coolmore would give two hoots about winning a Triple Crown with Saxon Warrior. If he did indeed win the Guineas and the Derby, I think the Leger would be way down on their priority list, as winning it would add very little stud value to what he would have already achieved.
Imo, if he wins the Derby, all roads will lead to Longchamp, not Doncaster. I know they tried it with Camelot, but look at what it did to him, he wasn’t the same horse after. You couldn’t campaign a horse from the Guineas to the Arc with the Derby and the Leger somewhere in the middle.
Saxon Warrior is arguably the most important horses in training for Coolmore, rather than Ballydoyle, because of their extensive backing of Deep Impact. They need him to be a success.March 29, 2018 at 17:09 #1348392
To be perfectly honest RR, I’m not sure Coolmore would give two hoots about winning a Triple Crown with Saxon Warrior. If he did indeed win the Guineas and the Derby, I think the Leger would be way down on their priority list, as winning it would add very little stud value to what he would have already achieved
You may be right Voleur but I would politely disagree. I don’t think there has been a 3yo colt from Ballydoyle that truly targeted the Arc since High Chaparral and that was after they had won all the races they wanted with him. The English Classics are the cornerstone of establishing stud value for Coolmore. Deep Impact is very important as you, I and others have mentioned.
We are all (myself in particular ) getting carried away by what this colt might achieve but my guess is the Arc will not be a target necessarily.
The Leger is usually regarded as an after thought but Ballydoyle/Coolmore have had one colt that has one both the Guineas and the Derby and where did he end up in September?
The spirit of Vincent still lurks in Tipperary.
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