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Saxon Warrior in further tonight to 10/1 from 16s for the Guineas/Derby double. That was sudden and dramatic!
Not moved particularly for either race individually.That move feels very defensive and looks very much like…”Ok we have taken quite enough on this special lads”
Most of their homebred broodmares are Galileo bred, they can’t breed into SW Voleur?
Hence why he doesn’t solve the cross-over problem. This exact reason is why Caravaggio was/is such a huge horse to Coolmore.
On Oddschecker the price for Guineas/Derby still shows as 25/1 with Bet365.
Saxon Warrior was 8/1 all winter for the Guineas but he’s generally 5/1 now and for the Derby there is a few more 7/2 odds making an appearance now.
As a Racing Post trophy winner, Saxon Warrior is more likely to contract for the Derby than a more traditional Guineas winner would after succeeding in the first leg.
I said some time ago that it made little sense for Gustav Klimt to be shorter than Roaring Lion for the Guineas and they are just about the same odds as one another now. Roaring Lion may be second favourite come the day of the race.
Bookies are starting to come to terms with how many of these O’Brien horses will not be turning up in the Guineas. Saxon Warrior has already comfortably disposed of several of Aiden’s other Derby prospects in the Beresford, so he may not need to fear them and he has beaten The Pentagon in the Racing Post Trophy. Despite Amedeo Modigliani having been cut for The Derby, Aiden has hinted that they are going gently with him for now and he also said he is not sure the colt will get a mile and a quarter
If the 25/1 double price IS still there with Bet365 it is surely better value than what the individual odds will be for the races?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Oddschecker is wrong with the price
10/1 at presenthttps://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B2/C171/D20392351/E34243765/F2/G-1/H-1/P10/
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Thanks for clearing that up Nathan, I did wonder if the price was incorrect.
Not like Oddschecker to make mistakes eh? I’ve lost count of the number of times the same horse is quoted twice due to spelling mistakes on the site.
I did Saxon Warrior at 66/1 for the double before the Racing Post Trophy and was surprised the odds didn’t change after he won, albeit fairly narrowly. I feel he will be odds-on for the Derby if he wins the Guineas.
Looking at the Guineas there seems to be very little that is really fancied and I think that’s why Elarqam has been backed and Saxon Warrior continues to be nibbled at. Roaring Lion has trickled in to 8/1, probably because he ran Saxon Warrior so close and punters are seeing the Racing Post Trophy, rather than the Dewhurst, as the best 2YO form this time around.
Amedeo Modigliani, The Pentagon, Mendelssohn, Seahenge and Threeandfourpence are all doubtful for the Guineas and the last three named will all have had two runs this season after tomorrow, and that’s not a profile that indicates the Guineas is their target.
Herculean is unlikely to be ready and is probably still wrapped in cotton wool inside the stable to keep the cold off him. Charlton seems to think that the Classics are for four year old horses.
I have seen Key Victory tipped up but he’s appalling value at 25/1 for an October novice winner. Most Guineas winners make their debut before then and I suspect the lack of Godolphin ammunition would be the reason they send him here.
Verbal Dexterity’s National Stakes win in the gutters has not worked out at all and his second to Beckford in the Railway Stakes is nowt special either. He has a fair bit to do with Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion from the Racing Post Trophy and he couldn’t get ahead of The Pentagon there, despite that horse having missed some work and drifting like a barge in the betting. Jim Bolger is a stranger in the big races these past few years.
The Burradon is run at Newcastle today but will have zero impact on the Guineas market I feel. I want to be against Gronkowski at the price today. I don’t think his form is anything special so far. Purser has scope but his form doesn’t look to have worked out and Nyaleti is exposed despite her good pieces of form from last season. They can’t give Great Prospector away in the betting but he was highly tried last season.
Twist my arm and I’ll go for Purser at 10/3 and a win may see him go for the Guineas. Just can’t have Gronkowski at 13/8 for this one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gronkowski took time to wear them down in the Burradon. He’s a huge lumbering colt though. Pretty workmanlike really and I doubt the US horses will be quaking after that. Bunch finish for second. Purser was a bit free early and he didn’t pick up that well. The firm that had him 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas need to hastily add a zero to that figure.
Nyaleti was always to the fore but weakened. No Guineas for her I would imagine. Just as well not to be betting on that race. I learned my lesson last year with Utmost.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agreed with everything said Steve. Not impressed with Gronkowski in any of his races and if any of these racing in the Burradon today had Guineas dreams they might as well forget about them.
who does Ryan Moore choose to ride Mendelssohn (in Kentucky) or Saxon Warrior (at HQ) ?
Going by Moore’s enthusiasm for the race and the horse, he will be in Kentucky on May 5th.
Which horse has the better chance of winning their race though?
Saxon Warrior continues to creep in and is getting into less than 5’s in a few places now. Should he win the race he’ll be as thin as a raindrop for the Derby. What kind of jockey is going to hand a potential Classic double on a plate for another pilot to put HIS name into the History books instead?
Despite Mendelssohn’s hose up job in Meydan, it wasn’t a strong race he won. His stablemates ran like drains and Gold Town was a hellish favourite for the race at Evs early doors. He’d been beating up moderate handicappers up till now and got found wanting big time. Filly Rayya was a clear second, despite being unable to get to the front this time. Rayya had a RPR best of 101 and that’s not even listed class, far less Group 1 form.
Life is going to be a lot tougher in Kentucky. Lovely day out or not, I’d rather be sitting on a winner in the rain at Newmarket and looking to Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Staying at Newmarket would be better preparation for Clemmie the next day
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
As exciting as Mendelssohn is, the unique nature of dirt racing surely makes Moore for Newmarket the percentage call.
As great as Ryan Moore is there might be value in employing a dirt specialist jockey at Churchill Downs. That is of course depending on Saxon Warrior continuing to please and given the type of colt he is big and strong and requiring a lot of handling (RP Trophy) a substitute at Newmarket is almost certainly a downgrade.
I think they have done the private jet from North American racing on the Saturday to big European event on the Sunday more than once. Although they have generally left right after. If they were to win the media commitments expected would be difficult to juggle…but that is a first world problem clearly.Never mind the jockey it would be interesting to see where Aidan went also.
He will still be on saxon warrior for the derby if he chooses steve even if he isnt aboard at newmarket and tbh coolmore as an operation if they thought thy could win the KD with mendelssohn would much rather send moore there than win another guineas (theyd do that with or without him, he could be key in kentucky though)
He will still be on saxon warrior for the derby if he chooses steve even if he isnt aboard at newmarket
That is a fair point ham and the more I consider, the less certain I am that Newmarket would be the first choice for RM.
Also, very unusually (maybe 1 year in 10), the Belmont Stakes and the Epsom Derby do not clash this year. Being on the 9th and 2nd of June respectively. All lot of things would have to align for this ever to be an issue but it does remove one stumbling block in the choice.
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