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It’s more the nature of the double prospect than just one or other of the first two races for me Ham.
To only be on board for one of the two rides in a Guineas/Derby double would sicken me. Perhaps Moore is sangfroid regarding that matter but it would irk me to see someone else pick up a Guineas. Not many horses achieve the double and it’s something a jockey may only have the chance to achieve once in their career.
I actually feel Mendelssohn is poor value as favourite for the Kentucky Derby now. It will be much tougher than the UAE Derby and it’s unlikely he will be able to establish a lead so easily at Churchill Downs.
Maybe he can win it but history is against him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Not a clue how he feels in regard to it, but he does seem to be swaying toward kentucky and for “global recognition” as the best around, adding the race to his collection is probably more valuable to him than a guineas/derby double,
If i was betting on the KD id definitely side with mendelssohn at this moment, hed beat bolt doro, and audible hasnt shown anywhere near his form “yet”
I actually think 6/1 about him is a pretty good price, if you forget history which id be happy to do because of the money coolmore have invested into scat daddy offspring etc these days, its only a matter of time before they win this and a half brother to beholder who will progress with racing, who has head and shoulders the best form in the race, is as good a chance as ever. I doubt Bolt doro aka the second coming would have won in meydan like mendelssohn did and hes about the strongest candidate against him at this time, interesting, but aye i genuinely think that The lads Will leave this totally upto moore but would prefer he went country for the saturday anyway.
Just my take anyway.
Doesn’t matter how he feels between AOB & Coolmore he’ll be told where he’s riding.
More chance of the first string winning anyway if Seamie is on them based on last seasons classics
Disagree, Kev, I don’t doubt that it will be Ryan Moore, and only Ryan Moore, who makes the final decision. I agree with the general consensus here that he will be in Kentucky on the 5th May.
Cannot see Ryan Moore getting off Mendelssohn for anything even if he wanted to. If he were to win in Kentucky he would join the likes of Northern Dancer and Secretariat as KD winners who won a G1 on Turf also. He would automatically become an equine global superstar.
His birthday was 17th May 2015 so not even a 3YO yet.
Yesh the decision will definitely be moores and i agree botchy, it looks a fairly easy decision for me.
Moore is going over to ride a few dirt races this weekend – Can’t have it that he took that initiative on himself and it wasn’t a AOB/Coolmore decision.
I can’t have it that they NEED Moore for Mendelssohn. It couldn’t have been an easier tactical race than you could wish for at Meydan. Just get into the lead and be a passenger for the rest of the race.
In that sense I would say it IS Ryan’s choice to be there and not a case of thinking he is forced to go to Kentucky because he’s the only jockey in the yard who could win on the horse. The prep racing for Ryan is no doubt something the team have come up with but I believe Ryan has probably indicated that he is interested in riding in the Kentucky Derby.
I wouldn’t bet on where Moore ends up. I’d rather shove it in a FOBT to be honest. I can’t fathom people betting on something that is just an educated guess and in the hands of others. 4/6? No thanks, I’d rather do the Riverdance in a minefield.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have backed Saxon Warrior a number of times at 25/1 for the Guineas/Derby double and I confess I didn’t factor the ‘Mendelssohn to Churchill’ possibility on the same day. That was an error, I should have as I have been following the Kentucky Derby trials closely via Youtube this year, Audible impressed most for me so far (outside of Mendelssohn, incidentally).
Whilst Heffernan is good, however the style of Saxon Warrior as demonstrated at the Curragh, Naas and Doncaster showed he appreciated handling of the strongest and most skillful kind. The loss of Moore on the Rowley mile, should it occur, cannot be seen as anything but a negative for his chances, in my view.
My other bet for the Guineas is Expert Eye and I have gone in again on him at 11/1.Also is there any possibility that Ballydoyle might now consider missing Newmarket with Saxon Warrior?
Seems unlikely but Aidan has already stated that SW is very big, may take in a trial and if Moore is not available on top of that….might they rethink around the Leopardstown trials, the Derby and an autumn campaign?
Even if Mendelssohn’s American trip went spectacularly well the Epsom Derby and Belmont don’t clash this year.Probably not on balance but I am sure it has been discussed given their options with these two young potential stars.
Yeah thats pretty much it steve, he wont be forced to go there but seems lokely he wants to, i wouldnt bet on were he goes with stolen money, but the market is quite telling in some places, hes as big as 2/1 to goto the guineas…
Running rein – if SW is fit (which he will be) there is 0 chance he will miss it, the fact that he said “maybe” when trial was mentioned then quickly said “probably straight to the guineas” or along those lines tells you they know they can get him fit in time but if there behind then the trial will be enough to do the job…. but aye, moore not on board is definitely a negative, but seamie is more than capable and wouldnt be surprised to see obriens son onboard either.
If Moore goes for the KD, wont be surprised to see Donnacha take up the ride of SW, he rides him at home and was on board when he won on debut. Im not too worried about the 2000 guineas, will Ryan be back in time to ride Clemmie? Thats my worry.
He’ll be back for Clemmie, that’s been done several times before I’m sure although not specifically KD back for 1000 day.
I like Roaring Lion. Obviously there’s the Djebel next week and what have you, but to date RL is the one i’ve backed.
Moore will be back for Clemmie but ideally you’d want him riding the Saturday at Newmarket getting a feel for it.
Travel can make you tired etcGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Don’t worry Nathan, cos everything is not eaten as hot as it’s cooked!
That’s a German saying, and I don’t know if there is an English equivalent,
but Moore will enjoy his victory on Clemmie, no matter what he will be doing the day before.I’m sitting on Gustav Klimt at 40/1 for this, so it’s definitely one of my stronger ante post positions for the upcoming season. Not sure the vibes are as confident as I would like however, stable mate Saxon Warrior is clearly the apple of Aidan’s eye out of this year’s Classic crop.
I’ve decided to take a chance on the French raider, Sacred Life at 20/1.
His trainer, Stephane Wattel, said the following:
“The Guineas is a real possibility as his owner is very keen to run in Britain. There are two routes – the Prix Djebel, then the Guineas, or the Fontainebleau followed by the Poule d’Essai.
He was the highest rated two year old in France last season, winning three races on the trot, culminating in a Group 3 romp by 6l. He was denied his chance to claim Group 1 glories in the Criterium International, where he would have gone up against some of Aidan’s, due to the protests at the time.
He may have question marks to answer regarding his ability to act on faster ground, as there are conflicting reports on the state of the going for his most recent victory. His previous two wins came on Good to Soft, and Soft, but ATR reports that his Group 3 win was ran on Good ground, whilst the RP describes it as Very Soft.
With the way things are going this year, a proper soft ground Guineas isn’t out of the question. He looked like an exciting colt last season, and with an RPR of 113 – contrast that to the RPR of Group 1 winner Saxon Warrior – its clear he shouldn’t have too much to find to be competitive, provided he’s progressed from two to three.
I did a write up on Sacred Life in either the 2YO thread or the French Racing thread last year.
If I recall correctly, my concerns were the soft ground, and, more importantly for me, the fact that the horse was outpaced, and ridden, earlier in the race. Once he got on top, he came right away from the field but was it a case of others tiring in the ground?
Sacred Life beat Alba Power in his final run of last season and by a handsome six lengths. Alba Power was trained by Hugo Palmer at that time but has since moved to France and is in Fabrice Chappet’s stable now. Alba Power hosed up by six lengths on his first start of the season. He is a useful form tie-in because he ran behind Godolphin’s Wootton in the Prix Isonomy last season, finishing just over seven lengths behind the winner.
Looking back at the video for Sacred Life, if you only regard the final furlong it looks fantastic but the jockey gets busy on him early enough and he seems to take a while to actually start the build his run, never really offering the hope of producing the late burst he eventually conjured up.
I preferred the way Wootton went about his business in beating Alba Power and others in the Prix Isonomy:-
Certainly puts a different perspective if it is a soft ground Guineas. Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion would enjoy the stamina emphasis and I doubt US Navy Flag, Expert Eye and Gustav Klimt would be suited by the tougher conditions.
Like Voleur, I had an early pop on Gustav Klimt after seeing him land his maiden in promising style. I could only get 33/1 with the firms I use but it was only a fiver bet anyway. My confidence has waned after not being entirely convinced by his narrow victory next time up and the setback that saw his season end early. I thought all winter that Roaring Lion at 16/1 was better value than Gustav Klimt at 8/1.
Good luck to all who have played early on this race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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