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With the Decline Of The British Three Mile Chaser (more of which anon) now definitely A Thing, what do we think this race is going to look like?
Will Mullins test Un De Sceaux in the one threemiler that just might suit him?
Will Thistlecrack have recovered enough to repeat last year’s win?
Will Cue Card emulate The King Of Kings and win this as an 11-year-old?
Will Tea For Two give me a nice warm feeling inside?
Will Might Bite make up for jockey failure in the Kauto Star?
Or will it be something else entirely?
I know it’s really bloody early, but what do we think?
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Last year’s race isn’t looking very good at the moment. You have to question how good Thistlecrack actually is.
He hasn’t reached his Hurdle rating over fences yet. Cue Card must be a big doubt. He was pretty flat in the last renewal and for all the big fan club he has, he’s disappointed plenty over the years. I find it odd that he’s mentioned in the same breath as Denman and Kauto Star.
Horses like Thistlecrack are sort of hamstrung by their hurdle rating when going chasing. If you look at Cue Card as a Hurdler and as a Chaser, he was more than 20 lbs higher over fences. If we then extrapolate that and try to envisage similar improvement from Thistlecrack over fences you are getting into territory where he would need to end up rated 200 or so, to show the same increase.
I heard on or two theorising after the King George that we could already rate Thistlecrack 190 if allowing him a bit extra for the ease of his win. It’s a nonsense notion of course. I don’t think Cue Card ran any better than about 160 in that Boxing Day clash.
I couldn’t take Thistlecrack at 3/1 after the injury and not having managed to beat Many Clouds with the ease expected coming into that race. He had a hard race that day and I said at the time that this was surely not the plan for the Novice Chaser as a prep for Cheltenham. He was stretched that day and it turned out it hurt him. Many Clouds went at it so bravely that it cost him his life and we now have to wonder if it may have put a dent in Thistlecrack’s career as well.
Cue Card is 25/1 if you like Fairy Stories.
Might Bite an option at 5/1, Douvan varies wildly between 4/1 and 10/1. Yorkhill is similarly mixed odds.
Sizing John is a whopping 12/1 with William Hill and after today, barring the Cheltenham Gold Cup Curse, you would have to say he has a chance as a young horse unexposed at 3m+, if you could be sure that will be on his agenda.
Silly quotes on Vroom Vroom Mag as usual, I half expected to see her in the Oaks betting.
Might Bite 5/1 and Sizing John 12/1 are the only two I would be thinking about.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Like this year, I think this will end up being primarily confined to British (or English) 3m chasers. The cost of travelling over the Christmas period, and the repeated weather disruption of recent years, is one element in this, but so too is the Irish Trainer’s Championship, and the need for the big guns to keep firepower at home.
My long list of British-based horses looks like this:
Currently sound horses (or at least sound before running at the Festival): Might Bite, Politologue, Tea for Two, Cue Card (though Tizz has frequently said, Not his track, and I can only see him running here if a) he wins the Betfair and so is eligible for the Bonus, and b) if Thistlecrack isn’t back). I could also see one of Top Notch or Bristol de Mai running. Cloudy Dreams is my only other possible. Tizz also has Alary (but he’s been a big disappointment and so far doesn’t look up to this level).
On the ‘injury list’ but should be back: Thistlecrack, possibly Waiting Patiently; Ar Mad.
On the ‘injury list’ but ?: Coneygree
Thoughts on the obvious Irish horses as follows:
UDS – would love to see him here, but WPM seemed not to have thought about it (and dismissed it when posed the question). But that quite possibly means the opposite! This will also depend on whether he’s already been over for the Tingle Creek against Altior.
RR horses: mostly they go to Leopardstown, but – since Sizing John will presumably go for the Lexus – what price Djakadam coming here? I could see that happening, especially since he’s increasingly looking like 3m is the limit. Douvan, I think, will be wrapped in cotton wool and will stay in Ireland.
Wylie horses: Yorkhill – no way; he can’t go RH (plus, I think there will be a need to keep Djakadam and him apart until Cheltenham, which – since Yorkhill won’t go right – means Djakadam is diverted to Kempton).
Giggi horses: if Valseur Lido is back I can see him here rather than over the tougher 3m of the Lexus.
I wonder if he makes a recovery early enough if Douvan might get considered for this
There was a lot of judges saying he’ll step up next season myself included but now I’m stumped to where he may be targeted at. I suppose we’ll know more if and when he returns but the later it is the more likely they’ll stick to 2 miles..??Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I wonder if he makes a recovery early enough if Douvan might get considered for this
There was a lot of judges saying he’ll step up next season myself included but now I’m stumped to where he may be targeted at. I suppose we’ll know more if and when he returns but the later it is the more likely they’ll stick to 2 miles..??IF Douvan makes a good recovery, he might still go the “Faugheen route” next season, which means that he might not be entered until after Christmas. So anyone considering Douvan for the KG should be asking themselves if they’d like to throw ante-post money away on an injured horse. And if he runs out of prep races, he’ll definitely stick to the old plan/trip.
Might Bite 5/1 and Sizing John 12/1 are the only two I would be thinking about.
12/1 has gone, now 7/1 best price.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Of the mullins brigade:
Bellshill – Not quite good enough
Yorkhill – i dont think he would stay
Un de Sceaux – definately wouldnt stay, looked to be running out of steam at cheltenham
Douvan – hopefully they step him up in trip to run in this to see how good he really is
djakadam – I dont think he stays well enough for 3 miles 2 at cheltenham, so maybe 3 miles on a flat track is more suited to him
Killutagh Vic – Most interesting of contenders if they can get him back, last horse to beat thistlecrack over hurdles and took very well to chasing before his injury.
VVM – Will probably return to chasing next season but hard to know if she is good enough.Henderson:
Might bite – stays well, jumps very well and has already put in a top class performance at kempton
Whisper – Not as good as might bite but still very good nonethelessTizzard:
Cue Card – I think he will be retired but tried to go the pace of thistlecrack last year and just couldnt handle it
Thistlecrack – Jumps well, stays 3 miles at kempton well, has to be respected
Native River – Should be still improving, probably wants more of a stamina testHarrignton –
Sizing John – Gold cup winner, who performs equally aswell going right handed over shorter distance. Very versatile horse
Our Duke – Should be quite good next season but probably not at this levelElliot:
Outlander: Probably not good enough, leopardstown win was more of the exception rather than the rule
Empire of Dirt – Good horse but not top class, needs to be ridden more up with the pace imo
A Toi Phil – I think he can really step up next year to be very goodThen you have a shed load of others such as coneygree, don poli, valseur lido, minella rocco, more of that, tea for two, anibale fly, coney island, top notch, disko.
Look like it could be an exciting 2.5-3 mile chase division next season
A good and very fair assessment there Wexfordman.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
No question of Yorkhill staying three miles imo, a case of whether he jumps straight,
Entries are now out………
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/28/kempton/2017-12-26/687285
Bristol De Mai & Djakadam appeal just now at around 20’s, 25’s, while 3 or 4 of the Giggs army also stand out, and Politologue looks very big at 33’s, but I’ll sit this out just now, and see how things develop.
Coney Island could be really interesting. He finished half a length behind Our Duke in a Grade 1 novice chase when last seen and is still pretty unexposed. Fox Norton looks made for a race like this, but I don’t think they will let him clash with Sizing John. God’s Own might improve for stepping up.
But really, Might Bite should just win.
I see this year’s renewal as a straight shootout between Might Bite and Thistlecrack . I like both horses very much but I just favour Nicky Henderson’s horse , who looks to have real touch of class about him .
I can’t see Douvan turning up for this . I am a huge admirer of the giraffe legged flying machine , but truth be told , his jumping remains a concern . Mr. Mullins will , i’m sure , be trying to address that problem .
Unless Douvan comes back jumping fences like Tingle Creek , then he could very well turn into the modern day version of Carvill’s Hill .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Coney Island could be really interesting. He finished half a length behind Our Duke in a Grade 1 novice chase when last seen and is still pretty unexposed. Fox Norton looks made for a race like this, but I don’t think they will let him clash with Sizing John. God’s Own might improve for stepping up.
But really, Might Bite should just win.
I’m with you on Coney Island Degaussed, I just posted over on the Gold Cup thread that I think he’ll be a big player in this year’s renewal. Having backed him at 33/1 for the big one, how can I not take some of the 50/1 and 85.0 on offer here? Whatever about the Gold Cup market cutting up, the King George market will look like it just went through a shredder before the off.
I backed Yorkhill for this last season, thinking he would follow the Vautour route on his way to the Gold Cup, its now safe to say that horse will never again race right-handed. The top three in the market look all like turning up unless something goes amiss, and if they do it will take a superstar to beat them. There are a lot of interesting types further down the field, such as Top Notch, Djakadam, Britol De Mai, Tea for Two, has Outlander undergone a renaissance? Will Douvan step up? However, you are just left wondering how many will turn up, and if they do, will they be good enough. Coney Island is proven at the trip and there’s no obvious reason for him not to go, so at the prices I’m expecting a big run from him.
I quite like Djakadam, this race could be tailor made for him and is a big price compared toSizing John, who he was narrowly beaten by at Punchestown.
Silly quotes on Vroom Vroom Mag as usual, I half expected to see her in the Oaks betting.
They should go for it! What have they got to lose!
The King George this year has upset written all over it.
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