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ut I think he’s going to need to find plenty of improvement if he’s going to win this year’s Gold Cup, assuming all get there fit. I think Yorkhill (if Ruby rides him), Native River (with a campaign focused on the GC) and Might Bite would better him,
Do you want an even money bet that Sizing John beats Native River in the gold cup, I’m on Sizing John obviously?
My gut tells me that Sizing John won’t win the gold cup, but you have to respect the horse to some extent. Native River isn’t in the same parish and cheltenham doesn’t even suit the horse.
Daft as it might sound, I don’t think he’s a confident fencer
I don’t think Might Bite is a dodgy jumper, he’s not perfect but the best jumpers never are. You’re right about him not having any stamina issues though. Just because Ham watched the replay several times doesn’t make it more likely that Might Bite won’t stay
He’s not ‘dodgy’ Judge, in the way that he’s unsafe or inconsistent, it’s just that he might not be confident and he’s giving the fences too much air. Those scopey jumps are nice for the purists to watch but they cost energy and ground.
He’s rated 170 from his latest win, but I’m not sure how any handicapper can assess that and confidently judge any horse in that, let alone raise him 2lbs for it.
I think it does matter, because it throws into question the credentials of what he’s actually beating.
Racing isn’t as black and white and beating a 151-rated horse by 1 length, therefore he’s not good enough to get close to Sizing John. If Sizing John, at the age of 7, has room for improvement then why isn’t Double Shuffle, who is the same age and less-raced, afforded the same courtesy? I don’t think anyone could watch that race and think Double Shuffle has only ran to a rating of 151. He’s a progressive sort who loves Kempton.
It will be interesting to see what sectionals make of the Kauto Star G1, which was ran approximately a stone slower than the KG. I would personally take the conservative view that Black Corton – a solid, consistent 160 performer – has ran to about 155, and therefore Might Bite would have clocked a performance of about 170. Ignoring Double Shuffle for a moment, who is clearly the odd one out in the finish, this means Tea For Two has ran to his best – a small improvement from last year’s KG, and about the same level as when winning his G1 at Aintree.
Throwing Sizing John in here would be interesting, not least because he’d have a very strong gallop to live with and he might have been challenging Might Bite near the end. Personally, I think MB would have pulled out a bit more, but he’s a funny sort so you don’t know.
Do you want an even money bet that Sizing John beats Native River in the gold cup
A tenner to the IJF, or the charity of your choice?
Might Bite backers must have been a tad nervous after the last, as they were on the run in up the hill in the RSA. He is obviously class but I have my reservations, based on what we have seen towards the end of 3m, about 3m2f in a Gold Cup. There’s no doubt he’ll get the GC trip, I just question whether or not he has the fight to battle Sizing John up the hill.
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I agree with you on the change in tactics. His brilliance last season was his relentless gallop, but now they’re talking about not producing him until after the last in the GC. Although you have to compensate for the fact his two runs this season have been on soft ground, when he would want better ground.
I wouldn’t totally rule out BDM; I was quite happy with on the 2nd circuit, seemed to be jumping well enough, but that really was a shuddering mistake, and he compounded quickly afterwards. I don’t tthink many would have remained competitive after a mistake of that degree
The commentator was talking bollocks about how bad that jump was. Bristol De Mai was handed his ass today, plain and simple.
People are delusional here.
Bristol De Mai was given 151 by the Racing Post for today’s run. That’s a million miles from their 185 figure from last time. It is also well below the 173 official mark. When we look back to before last season’s Betfair at Haydock though, Bristol De Mai came into that race rated 154.
The horse has clearly been grossly overfaced for two runs at the same track. Outside of that he’s miles off it every time.
Dream on people.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Don’t know if anyone remembers
Best Mate’s winning gold cup seasons. He was all out in the King George against old boy Marlborough and then at Cheltenham won the Gold Cup by 10 lengths one year. In another year he got beat in the King George but won the Gold Cup. I’m not saying Might Bite is going to win 10 lengths or anything but some horses do perform better in the Spring so it’s dangerous to knock a King George performance especially a winning one that isn’t won by miles.
I don’t think you can knock anyone for winning a G1. We want to see fireworks every time, but the majority of them are won without requiring brilliant performances.
A lot of nonsense going on. I thought going into the race having backed Might Bite at 11/8 (woo what a brilliant punter I am – sarcasm that by the way) and not being too worried about Bristol that he’d be exposed to something that had been ridden behind the battle going on up front as so it worked out.
The boy has smashed Bristol into the ground and had everything in the race manning the pumps a mile out.
And, as I think we know by now he was just idling as much as tiring in the last furlong. Double Shuffle himself is still a very good horse round Kempton by any man’s means. Smashed Go Conquer off 11st12 before finishing 2nd in the RP Chase or whatever it’s called these days.
Horses still can’t seem to get past him and it’ll certainly take a good’un to do it.
It’s harder to put in bigger winning margins at kempton probably due to the three quick fences and run in not being extended but as much as anyone can claim double shuffle must have improved or MB was simply idling (not ideal at cheltenham) that cannot be rated a fine performance simply because BDM was beaten easily. I heard that at the track yesterday and it’s bollocks for all the reasons given
Comparisons with best mates KGv and gc are absurd. Bm was nowhere near as strong round kempton whereas mb has proven the track suits
hes a worthy winner but not memorable in any way
Daft as it might sound, I don’t think he’s a confident fencer
I don’t think Might Bite is a dodgy jumper, he’s not perfect but the best jumpers never are. You’re right about him not having any stamina issues though. Just because Ham watched the replay several times doesn’t make it more likely that Might Bite won’t stay 😉
Lol judge my opinions are only opinions, i never said because i watched the race MB wont get the trip, its purely my own untrained speculative opinion, thats what this forum is about is it not? I do not take offence to people not agreeing with me nor should anyone take offence when i disagree eith them
My own opinion is that yesterday does not fill me with confidence that he will be able to sustain that pace for an extended 2f, because i think that does not mean it wont happen, you may very well be correct about SJ not winning…
Nigel Twiston Davies interviewed today about BDM run. He said nothing has come to light except the ground and he will go where there will be very soft ground next time and he wishes the race was today as it was very soft ground. Asked if BDM would still head for the Gold Cup as its usually nice ground there, the trainer then said he’ll have to as he’s got nowhere else to go.
Sadly, he will very probably leave any Gold Cup chance he has in the Cheltenham mud as so many other Cotswold Chase combatants have. It is almost always a brutal race in very soft or heavy ground. Many Clouds died after this year’s and I suspect it also bottomed Thistlecrack.
After Many Clouds won it in 2015 he ran no sort of race in the Gold Cup. After Smad Place won it, he ran no race in the Gold Cup and didn’t win again for almost 2 years. The odd horse comes out of it all right, the last one being The Giant Bolster who went on to be 3rd in the Gold Cup. But on the balance of evidence, if you want to win a Gold Cup, you do not want to be running in this race. No winner in the past 20 years has won a Gold Cup in the same season.
Nigel Twiston-Davies say he cannot explain yesterday’s run. He seems to have ruled out the possible after effects of the Betfair. He just seems now to want to run wherever there is heavy ground rather than prepare the horse properly for the Gold Cup.
Come off it, Joe. Twister has effectively explained yesterday’s run, bowing to the inevitable. Loves/needs the mud flying on a left-handed course. Extremely unlikely to get his conditions at Cheltenham in March so makes perfect sense to go for the Cotswold Chase. Yes, he might not recover in time but that’s surely a risk worth taking to have a good chance/win another race? Got to have a go when conditions suit. Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown Festivals will in all probability not be soft enough. Only alternative I can see is the Irish Gold Cup which is even later, many don’t recover from and especially if there’s a clash with Sizing John. Cotswold Chase the obvious next target.
Are we in 2020? Didn’t Looks Like Trouble win the two races the same season in 2000?
See More Business was carried out by McCoy on Cyborgo in the Gold Cup after winning the Cotswold and won it in 2001 when the Festival was abandoned (again not his fault). Only Kauto Star prevented Exotic Dancer from doing the double in the same season… And Many Clouds died last year. Other than them only Neptune Collonges was good enough to even place in the Blue Riband a different year. ie Not many Cotswold Chase winners had any sort of chance in the Gold Cup and therefore in effect… imo Too small a sample to be thinking ground conditions had much of a hand in the Cotswold winners not winning/running well in the big one.If Bristol De Mai goes there, proves equally effective on the undulations and it comes up very soft/heavy in both races… then imo he’d have as good a chance as any since Looks Like Trouble of doing the double in the same season.
Value Is EverythingSorry, Mark, you are right, of course. I’d completely forgotten Looks Like Trouble had won a Gold Cup at all.
As for the others:
Smad Place went off at 10/1 in the Gold Cup – far from favourite but not a huge outsider.
Many Clouds was 2nd fav at 7/1 in his Gold Cup and ran poorly (I backed him and he travelled with none of his usual appetite that day)
Cape Tribulation was a 12/1 chance as was Midnight Chase
Neptune Collonges was 33/1
Taranis didn’t run again for almost a year after the Cotswold (he ran only 3 times after it; one in a Hunter Chase)
Joe Lively ran just once more that season when 5th of 7 in a Kempton Grade 2 (5/1)
Knowhere was down the field at 25/1 in the Gold Cup.
Exotic Dancer was 2nd at 9/2 in the Gold Cup
The 2006 race – See You Sometime – was run at Wincanton (good ground)
Grey Abbey finished 5th in the Gold Cup at 15/2
Jair Du Cochet was put down after a training accident that March
Behrajan finished 5th in the Gold Cup at 14/1
Rince Ri ran just once more that season (beaten at Leopardstown)
See More Business missed the Gold Cup in 2001 in favour of the Martell Cup at Aintree where he was beaten 57L at 11/4 2nd fav.
Cyfor Malta didn’t run again for two years after winning it
In 1998, as you said, SMB was carried out in the Gold Cup
In the rarest of runnings on good to firm, One Man won and was turned out 2 weeks later, beaten at odds on and then beaten in the Gold Cup though stamina was always a question for him.
So, a fair number ran in the Gold Cup. Those who did best were the ones who won the Cotswold on good to soft ground: Behrajan, Grey Abbey and Looks Like Trouble. Exotic Dancer is the only deep ground winner who acquitted himself well so it would have been more accurate of me to specify soft or heavy historically rather than just recently (past 5 have been soft, heavy, soft, heavy, heavy).
As to Twister’s tale today, the stewards had him in yesterday and he told them he hadn’t a clue what was wrong. Nico said today that yesterday’s ground was hard work. It was proper soft ground at the very least, on a flat track, and, on RPRs, he has run 10lbs below his Gold Cup run on good ground. How on earth can Twister think that he’d have won it 24 hours later? He’s superb at getting horses fit but sometimes he’s mad as a hatter.
How long ago was it he was claiming the horse acts perfectly well on good ground and that he’s improved so much having got over his lameness problems from last season? The man blows hot one day and cold the next with neither rhyme nor reason. I’m convinced he has a genuine Gold Cup prospect in this horse (as he himself was, at least up until today). The best thing that could happen for this animal now is for Munir and Souede to move it to someone who thinks like Henderson in these matters (“Wherever Might Bite runs next it won’t be the Cotswold; we don’t want a slog in a bog”)
I’m always open to persuasion, otherwise I’d have gone skint a long time ago, but on this one I’ll stand by what I believe in spite of what trainers, experts or other punters say. I might well be wrong but I don’t think I am and will wait and see what happens next with Bristol De Mai. Unfortunately that’s likely to be the previously mentioned slog in a bog.
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