- This topic has 353 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Some of those Cotswold Chase winners may have started comparitively short for their Gold Cup effort, but that was when they were thought capable of improvement. Subsequent events showed they weren’t capable of making the step up in grade. Grey Abbey 15/2, Smad Place 10/1, even Cape Tribulation who I remember backing all proved afterwards their price in the big one nowhere near represented their actual chance. In 2001 it wasn’t just SMB that missed the Gold Cup, everyone did. Was that foot and mouth year?
Of all the horses you mention only one I’d say actually lost his Gold Cup chance from winning a soft ground Cotswold was Many Clouds.
Trainers always tell stewards they don’t know what was wrong. Trouble with telling them “needs it bottomless on a left handed possibly flat track wearing ear plugs with not too much pressure on the lead when I’m in good form”, is it leaves him open to abuse if running the horse under any other circumstances.
Yes, Twister has said in the recent past BDM is just as good on good ground. But that was only his opinion before yesterday’s race. There’s more evidence to take in to consideration now. Where as before the race I thought it probable BDM needed bottomless ground to show top class form, now am almost certain of it… And thought he wanted left-handed course before the King George, now am confident of it etc. Twister also deserves to be able to use what happened Boxing Day to alter or even change his mind completely.
Of course it is possible he could win the Gold Cup on good ground, but that is now extremely unlikely. imo As I write, BDM’s chance in the Gold Cup would imo be at least 4 if not more times greater on soft/heavy compared to racing on good.
It’s no good comparing what Henderson did/does with Might Bite to what Twister does with Bristol De Mai, the two horses are massively different. Might Bite does not need a “slog in a bog” so rightly won’t be given one. But if Henderson had BDM am certain he’d be running the horse in exactly those conditions because the probability of him needing those conditions is now enormous.
Yesterday ground conditions were somewhere between good-soft and soft (King George 0.525 secs per furlong slower than Racing Post standard). Today it was proper soft without being verging on heavy (Wayward Lad 0.94 secs per furlong slower than standard). So it’s true that BDM would’ve had a better chance on today’s going… And we know Twister is always optimistic about how his horses would fare. But it wasn’t anywehere near the near unraceable bottomless of Haydock (Betfair 1.33 secs per furlong slower) .
Value Is EverythingSteeplechasing, do you expect Nige to keep the grey boat away until the GC? Cotswold Chase makes sense, it’s normally a weak G1 and fits in well with the GC.
If he’s really a 170ish horse he won’t have issue in that race on his favoured ground.
Not much credit given to Might Bite here and he is being overshadowed by a million excuses for Bristol De Mai.
Has anyone actually considered that Might Bite is 6/1 for the Gold Cup and Bristol De Mai 20/1?
Hopefully Sizing John can win the old Lexus and we can actually focus on horses with a chance of winning the Gold Cup.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
not a hedgehopping fan, but a good piece by Simon Rowlands on timeform’s sectional debrief, if you’re interested.
Yes, Simon’s piece is revealing (summary: form could be dodgy) and I suspect that KS time comparison would have been quite different had Fountains Windfall stood up.
Mark, what was the per furlong timefigure for Bristol De Mai’s Wetherby win?
Wetherby was 1.3 seconds per furlong slower than Racing Post Standard, Joe. However, although I have no sectionals the Charlie Hall didn’t look to me as strongly run and some other races on the same day having better secs per furlong times (eg Born Survivor’s novice). Suspect they could’ve done a better figure with a truer run race in the Charlie Hall, so the comparisson of times between Bristol De Mai’s races not straightforward.
Value Is EverythingFrankly not buying what NTD is selling about the ground – it was soft enough for him to be travel well and be competitive up until just before the turn for home when the taps are fully turned on. I guess it was just not soft enough to really fully inconvenience the others and also remember he did belt a couple of fences on the way round, which wouldn’t have helped.
The likelyhood of the ground at Cheltenham in March being softer than it was for the KG is a long shot so the Cotswold option is an attractive very winnable race for him given that it is more likely to have his optimal conditions (ground wise). Unless we have a very wet spring most of those festival races will be on ground not be suitable for him.
Personally, I think with another year on his back the Welsh National might be something they will want to look at as you can pretty much guarantee Chepstow will have ground not far off unraceable that he revels in (remember how he bolted up in the Finale Hurdle there on heavy ground on his first start for NTD).
From Simon’s excellent analysis I’d now be a little less sceptical of Mite Bite’s stamina for the Gold Cup, although Nico will need a better clock in his head. Quickening the pace too much and paying for it in the closing stages more the case than an actual stamina limitations. Therefore is better than distances back to Double Shuffle and Tea For Two suggest.
Value Is EverythingTo be fair, LD; from the interview I saw that was the whole gist of what I took NTD meant?
Value Is EverythingAll that Timeform piece has told me is what I and Nicky Henderson suspected.
Might Bite is around a stone better horse on good ground, and on soft just isn’t as good.
Nigel Twiston Davies has always been a bit ‘dodgy’ in interviews for a good few years now. He always hypes his horses up pre race rarely has a bad word to say about them. I always take what he says with a pinch of salt.
Nigel seems to have finally accepted that The New One is not a Champion Hurdle horse, hinting at the Stayers this year. He also stated that Bristol De Mai will “Follow the rain” from now on. Only took him two years longer than everyone else to spot the obvious.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
So a horse puts up his best ever performance on soft ground and that tells you he’s a stone better on good ground.
Eh?
How, Mike?This going thing with Might Bite is nonsense. Although might be his best chance of winning the Gold Cup is on good because stamina is less likely to be stretched on good.
Value Is Everything
How, Mike?- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.