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Oh i definitely agree might bite is the better horse, im just saying hendo was definitely concerned about soft for MB and he still won, BDM should have been closer and i dont think he has many excuses bar its not haydock, i dont think its left handed, just wasnt haydock lol
winning two gold cups would be an exceptional feat, and very few horses achieve that. Just for that reason I’d be against sizing john. Something about him, doesn’t strike me as a dual gold cup winner. Just a feeling I have. had the same feeling about thistlecrack today and was proven right.
Very few horses achieve what hes already achieved, hes the only one head of the market that actually gets the distance as of now, the rest have a way to go to get near SJ, MB still has another 2f to find, didnt strike me today that hed be certain to find that
Ill be hoping coney island is up able to get in the mix and fingers crossed killultagh vic can come back and run well, as of now, its all sizing john for me, yes the ground was against MB the same way it was against SJ LTO, fox norton is a good pointer to exactly what SJ really did last season
wouldnt rule thistlecrack out of a big race, not sure he will get the GC distance atall, ran well today though, definite step forward..
BDM, probably ran his non haydock
race, no excuses.winning two gold cups would be an exceptional feat, and very few horses achieve that. Just for that reason I’d be against sizing john. Something about him, doesn’t strike me as a dual gold cup winner. Just a feeling I have. had the same feeling about thistlecrack today and was proven right.
could be that Yorkhill turns up Thursday and turns him over. To add yet another twist.
IMO that means the GC is a two runner race now!!
I was and am impressed with that run. Did anyone else notice as soon as MB put pressure on BDM jumping it fell apart!!
On better ground MB will be even more impressive and his jumping today was very good!!was there as usual today for what is my fav race in the calendar. No bet though.
Ultimately mb didn’t do anything wrong but beating two likeable but not absolaute top class yardsticks (although kempton specialists) in ok fashion did not get me scrambling to get on for the gc. In fact I was surprised sj was 9/2 and went in my usual modest fashion.
Bristol De Mai
I cannot deny you non believers your day in the sun – you’ve earned it.
I can say with no doubt whatsoever, that was not his form nor anywhere near it – even away from Haydock and even on a right handed track. Whether the yard is down with something (5.5% strike rate) or he just had a really bad day I don’t know, but if I were you I wouldn’t be assuming you have him nailed after today.
I’ll back him for the Gold Cup.
I wouldn’t be too hard on Whisper either. Sending him there as an afterthought just because the handicapper put him up a big slice, was very poor stuff from his trainer. The horse had a really hard race at Newbury to my eye and he doesn’t want to be going that way round. Not at all surprised Russell who loves the horse and knows him well cried off.
Looking at the Gold Cup betting now, I think Might Bite is a fair price at 6/1. Ideally you would have wanted him to win further today but with the way the ground ended up it was a decent performance and who else really looks capable of dethroning Sizing John?
Watching the race again, I have to say that Bristol De Mai put in a feeble effort for a 3/1 shot. Plenty was said about him in the build up but he was a cardboard cut out of the wonder horse he was portrayed in places. He’s 20/1 in places for The Gold Cup now and I’ll readily pass on that.
Coming out of last year’s Cheltenham I felt Sizing John had an excellent chance of repeating if he could avoid the tendency of “One and your done” that has plagued the Gold Cup. A win this week could see Sizing John quite short for the Gold Cup, so he’s worth a bet at 9/2 now. I am convinced that he and Might Bite will be half their current odds on Gold Cup day.
Buveur D’air looks like he could run up a hat trick of Champion Hurdles and only a Fuagheen phoenix from the flames can stop him. Happy with the Henderson horse today and the odds I took early doors.
I don’t dabble much in the National Hunt game but I feel cosy about my positions in the Blue Riband races this season. It’s usually much worse at this stage!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll back him for the Gold Cup.
I admire your loyalty. Though I think it will come to nothing bar heavy going.
Away from his ‘ideal conditions’ in last 2 G1s at Cheltenham and Aintree he was beaten 20 lengths and 25 lengths. And today 26 lengths. So although you say he didn’t run his race, it was pretty much par for the course.
And Russell had an agreement with an owner in Ireland ages ago to ride his horses whenever they run which is why he wasn’t on Whisper.Well I think Might Bite wasn’t that visually impressive today, which is why some people are saying he won’t win the gold cup, and they might have a point
but he did win the race, and not every horse can win a top class race doing handsprings on the snaff.
Even Kauto and the likes had their more impressive wins and their more sort of get it done wins.
I like might bite at the moment but the race is still quite open in my view. No way is it a two horse race, there’s always a lot of horses that come out of the woodwork as you creep closer to the gold cup. After all how can you write off Yorkhill and Coney Island at this stage, what have they done wrong?!
I wouldn’t totally rule out BDM; I was quite happy with on the 2nd circuit, seemed to be jumping well enough, but that really was a shuddering mistake, and he compounded quickly afterwards. I don’t tthink many would have remained competitive after a mistake of that degree
I dont think sizing john will be to bothered by that
Do you think Sizing John will still be able to stand when run ragged by Might Bite in the Gold Cup?
He’s a mid 160s horse, at best, and I would be surprised were he to even place in the race this year.
He’s a mid 160s horse, at best
Come off it. That’s just nonsense isn’t it?
Might Bite will not run anyone ragged for the simple reason that he won’t be asked to employ tactics like he did in the RSA – he has sat handy in both his races this season (no doubt as planned by connections) before taking it up 3 or 4 out and I would imagine that is probably the plan come GC time.
Good chance the ground at Cheltenham (weather permitting) will not be any quicker than good to soft and in my opinion SJ is basically a quicker horse (remember he chased Douvan around over 2m and won over 2m4f first time up) – pretty certain had he run today SJ would have won and in my mind currently he is the rightful fav for the GC.
Have a sneaky feeling that the Christmas Chase may end up being a harder assignment than had he ran today.
Well done to all Might Bite and ew Double Shuffle/Tea For Two backers too.
Must say though it was a bit of a disappointing finish in the end. Might Bite looked like he might win by a long margin coming around the home turn. But personally, on the face of it I can’t rate the form any better than last year’s Thistlecrack victory. (I’d have all last year’s cast running to a few pounds more than Timeform rate it). May be a pound or two can be added to Might Bite for having the race won from some way out. Did MB go too fast too soon and pay for it in the closing stages? Sectionals will be interesting. Or does the horse idle badly once hearing the crowd? If I were Hendo would think about using ear plugs. They’ve worked with Bristol De Mai the last twice, not this time though. tbh BDM can not be rated on the 66 lengths he had in hand at his favourite track on his favourite ground in a race where nothing else ran to form. But neither is this a race to judge his ability. Didn’t jump with anything like the same fluencey going right handed/on less testing ground even before he’d been taken on by Might Bite. As said beforehand, stable are in nowhere near as good form as they were at Betfair time and possibly had a harder race than it looked too. Forget the run for telling you how good the horse is, but don’t forget those negatives. Fact is there’s now evidence very soft ground and a left handed (possibly flat) track where the trainer is in particularly good form – is what he needs to produce top class form.
Fox Norton again didn’t jump as well held up than what he can racing prominently; although can understand why – took a keen hold and beaten early. Whisper’s jumping fell apart and possibly now needs a greater test of stamina anyway. There’s always “excuses” for horses that don’t show their form, BDM, FN, W, even Thistlecrack.
Might Bite beat Double Shuffle (who’s clearly improved at his favourite track). For future reference don’t expect the Tom George horse to reproduce it left-handed. Tea For Two ran better than I expected after what looked an extremely hard race in the Betfair. Beaten a total of 3 lengths here where as last year beaten around 3 1/2. Thistlecrack 2 3/4 behind in fourth. So a line through TFT suggests Thistlecrack 6 1/4 lengths below last year’s form. In fairness it may be 6 of one and half a dozen of the other, with this year’s TFT performance a couple of lengths or two better than 2016 and T’crack 4 worse?
Value Is Everything
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