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I admire your loyalty. Though I think it will come to nothing bar heavy going.
Nothing to do with loyalty, Mike. You wouldn’t have to search too deeply on this forum to find me stepping quickly away from horses I’ve championed when I think they might start costing me money.
Whatever formline you pick, you won’t convince me that was his running. He suffered worse blunders in the Gold Cup and even after taking most of the last fence with him at Cheltenham he was trying to keep on up the hill. Today he went from going pretty sweetly approaching four out to barely climbing over 3 out. He went to nothing very very quickly and while he is one-paced, that was not him today.It’s not as though he exhausted himself off a blistering pace.
He will be back.
As for Whisper, Russell more than anyone else will have known how unsuited Whisper was to that race today and quite why the owner didn’t veto Henderson’s decision, I don’t know. If we are to believe the horse was a genuine 7/1 chance, there is no way Russell would have stayed in Ireland, no matter what deal he’d agreed (he ended up riding the maiden hurdle winner).
On top of that, Russell is retained by Whisper’s owner to ride his horses in the UK.
Joe, you’re of the belief that he’ll win the gold cup stage, and like the other poster I admire your disinclination to give up on the horse (I’ve deserted horses for much less) but surely you’re barking up the wrong tree here?
It’s my view that the horse has been exposed as a good horse but not an absolute top-notcher. The betfair chase is a very good steeplechase but has never been in the same ballpark as the king george and gold cup and never will be.
And the big question is, can you name one single horse, that has been well beaten when it’s run in both the gold cup and king george, and then gone on to win one of those races later on in it’s career? I can’t. So he’ll be going against the grain for sure.
Think I’m just going to have small e/w bets on Double Shuffle & Traffic Fluide. Neither should be good enough but, with question marks over several of the others, 100-1 for a place looks decent value in an 8 runner field
Inspired stuff, Tonge, well done although his future handicap mark will probably mean he’ll struggle to win anything. Still, what a thrill for connections.
Might Bite will not run anyone ragged for the simple reason that he won’t be asked to employ tactics like he did in the RSA
Fair point on the tactics, but something will only lead Might Bite if they’re going fast enough to do so.
Sizing John was always running over the wrong trip as a 2 miler, and his win over 2m4f came on bottomless ground. I would have liked to see him run today to see if he had the pace and stamina to compete, though I don’t believe he would have beaten Might Bite.
Judge, I’m not basing my opinion just on the Betfair. He’s a better horse this season, I’m sure, and probably by quite some way. He ran a very good race in the Gold Cup in March when he was still short of his 6th birthday, his mistakes proving costly there.
Many seem to want to be literal about Haydock V today and that’s their choice. I have no evidence to debate that other than my opinion that the Bristol De Mai who turned up in Lancashire wasn’t the same one who got off the lorry today. Until he runs again, there’s not much more I can say but I trust my judgement implicitly and backing him for the Gold Cup will not simply be defiance or rebellion.
Fo those who believe that was his true form today away from Haydock, he must be a hell of a horse indeed at a track he doesn’t even know the name of, because on a line through Tea For Two, Bristol De Mai is 90 lengths, or almost four stone worse at Kempton on soft than at Haydock on heavy.
If I were Hendo would think about using ear plugs
Interesting. Henderson has made no secret of what a show-off Might Bite is, and he says he’s already formed a plan for come Cheltenham time.
Thanks Steeplechasing. Almost thought he was going to win for a few strides but still, he did me proud. Might Bite looks the real deal though.
Fair enough Joe. Good luck with the horse moving forward, hope he comes through for you mate
Sizing John was always running over the wrong trip as a 2 miler, and his win over 2m4f came on bottomless ground. I would have liked to see him run today to see if he had the pace and stamina to compete, though I don’t believe he would have beaten Might Bite.
So you don’t believe thst sj is any better than the second and third then?
Well done to all Might Bite and ew Double Shuffle/Tea For Two backers too.
Must say though it was a bit of a disappointing finish in the end. Might Bite looked like he might win by a long margin coming around the home turn. But personally, on the face of it I can’t rate the form any better than last year’s Thistlecrack victory. (I’d have all last year’s cast running to a few pounds more than Timeform rate it). May be a pound or two can be added to Might Bite for having the race won from some way out. Did MB go too fast too soon and pay for it in the closing stages? Sectionals will be interesting. Or does the horse idle badly once hearing the crowd? If I were Hendo would think about using ear plugs.
Is there a stamina problem or idling problem? Above are some reasons to be thinking Might Bite will probably stay the Gold Cup distance, but on that running imo there’s also got to be a fair sized possibility he doesn’t want any further than 3m. Will connections want to ride the horse as per normal? Attacking from three or four out – if there’s a doubt about stamina/coming up the hill?
OR If they’re confident of getting the trip… Will they think it be best to get a substantial lead in case (RSA, King George, Gold Cup?) once more?) idling badly on the run-in?
Whether stamina or idling, Might Bite has a potential flaw for Cheltenham.
It’s hard to see a flaw in Sizing John.Value Is EverythingCome on degaussed, if your taking the stance that SJ is only a mid 160s horse what are you marking might bite at? What has might bite done to deserve a rating near sizing john, a triple gold cup winning horse
Really a flawed arguement
And my point in sizing john not being to worried is that yes might bite a quality horse, i dont think he will get the gold cup trip atall, ive watched the race back a few times now and im confident (personally) that 3m is his optimum, thr question you should be asking is, how will might bite cope when SJ comes alongside him going into unknown territory
Also for the last time sizing john WAS NOT running at the wrong distance over 2m, he would be a MULTIPLE grade 1 2miler if it wasnt for douvan, hes better at staying yes, but that does NOT mean he was running over the wrong trip, if your finishing 1st and 2nd in grade 1s at any distance your handling the trip, doesnt howeverr mean its your optimum
Edit : you really believe that this years field in the GC is going to do siZing john for a place, ok hypothetically might bite wins, who takes 2nd and 3rd to beat sizing john? Like ive said, im hoping for a run from coney island and killultagh vic, but they have a mountain to climb to get near SJ
So you don’t believe thst sj is any better than the second and third then?
I think Sizing John is clearly better than Double Shuffle, and better than Tea For Two.
Turning for home I was extremely confident, 2 out I was just confident and 1 out I was sweating. After the last I just wasn’t confident anymore. Thankfully he held on. Was it the ground. If there is soft in the description at Cheltenham I don’t think he will win the GC. Thanks for today though MB, you fought at the end there when you looked tired
Disappointing run from Bristol De Mai today, the writing was on the wall a long way from the finish and pleased to see that he wasn’t given a hard race after that. I can forgive a horse one bad run like that and look forward to seeing if he can redeem himself next time out, OTD willhave learned more about the horse from that run and just pleased to see them all come back safely.
Well done to all Might Bite supporters and Tonge and anyone else backing the placed horses. It really wasn’t the finish everyone was expecting but Might Bite thoroughly deserved his win.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think Might Bite is a 170+ horse, through what he did at Kempton last Christmas and in the RSA. Yes, Sizing John has won four G1s on the bounce, and it’s a bit mad that anyone would dare question that, but I’m not convinced by what he’s beating.
Nothing in the Irish Gold Cup has come out and won since, except for SJ.
In the Cheltenham Gold Cup he’s beating: Minella Rocco, who had his arse firmly handed to him by Many Clouds when in receipt of weight; Native River, who’s stable were dreadfully out of form and who had already peaked that season; Djakadam, who’s race ended abruptly when making a mistake; and Saphir du Rheu, who is a 160-horse on a very good day.
In the Punchestown Gold Cup he’s beaten Coneygree, who made a bad mistake and hasn’t done that form any favours since, and Djakadam, who again made a bad mistake when it mattered.
On his reappearance he’s looked quite impressive on bottomless ground, but only beaten a pregnant Djakadam, and Sub Lieutenant, who wants better ground.
He’s the type to give his running consistently, but I think he’s going to need to find plenty of improvement if he’s going to win this year’s Gold Cup, assuming all get there fit. I think Yorkhill (if Ruby rides him), Native River (with a campaign focused on the GC) and Might Bite would better him, and if Our Duke was fit then Power is going to have a very difficult decision to make. I also think Coney Island would be in with a shout, and I expect Thistlecrack to continue improving ready for March.
Sizing john is yet to peak and hes already rated 170, so yes might bite will have to be a fair bit better than 170+ @ 3m2f, not 3m where hes gained his credentials, not to mention sizing john is younger, more experienced and arguably more room for inprovement over a trip hes more than proven at
Does not matter that nothing has came out and won from the races sizing john won, these are not handicaps or listed races, they where all packed full of grade 1 horses, todays KG on paper was stacked full of potentials, only for a 151 rated horse to get within a length of a horse you claim to be well into the 170s
In what world do you think that double shuffle would get within a length of sizing john? Fact of the matter is either double shuffle improved a stone, or everything in the race ran below par/or is simply not as good, its entirely possible that double shuffle could have improved, but its entirely unlikely he did so by so much today
If sizing john ran in this today, he would be evs for the GC, ill be staggered if this race produces the gold cup winner this season
Not for one minute am i saying sizing john is a certainty fo the GC, but he certainly would have won this
I wouldn’t have any concerns about the Gold Cup trip for Might Bite. Any horse who can rally as he did in the RSA and get back into gear would appear to have talent and stamina to spare. Having said that, whatever they’ve done with him at home to quiet him down seems to have taken away some of the horse’s spark. I noticed this at Sandown and it was even more apparent today.
While not an obvious, ear-pricking idler, the way he jumped the last today suggested he had a lot left and I thought that as soon as he heard them challenging he’d pick up again. He did not do that in any obvious manner although he was close to home and, had they reached his flanks, we’d have seen how he would have reacted. But I’ll say one thing, had he began pulling up after the last today in the manner he did at Cheltenham, I’m far from convinced he’d have had the spirit to pick himself up again the way he did in March. He seems a changed horse.
Daft as it might sound, I don’t think he’s a confident fencer. He threw some really scopey jumps at Sandown and almost as many today. He pricks his ears a long way from a fence and doesn’t seem to want to touch a twig, sometimes doing that torso twist in an effort to lift his back end clear. I wonder if that desperately heavy fall he took last year is still in his mind. If so, you can credit him with even more courage. He’s a bonny horse.
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