Sussex Stakes 2017

[darren83]

CHURCHILL 2/1

Suprise not shorter in betting normally a top 3yo beats the older horse in this race i expect him to win St James yes Ribchester is getting better.But doubt he give Churchill weight and beat him.CHURCHILL getting better with every run and think this be last race at 1m before going up in trip at York and Irish champion stakes.

[LD73]

A lot will depend on the ground conditions at Goodwood on the day (the softer the better for Ribchester), also will be interesting to see if Churchill can confirm the 2000g form against those who finished behind him, although we may already know the answer to that after Royal Ascot.

[botchy1]

Zelzal to win @ 16’s

The Qattari’s will be all out to win this race, especially this year. Rouget has Brametot entered but he never sounded positive about facing Churchill in the St James.

Unraced at 2 and won a Group 1 last year. Goodwood should suit his style of running ( going round a turn ) In an interview the trainer mentioned he still has a lot of faith in this horse, he has improved physically and mentally.

Churchill is obviously the main danger in this, but he could be vulnerable to one that has that instant turn of foot.

Runs today in France.

[Middle_Of_March]

Just had a look at the betting and Bet365 are the only lot to price Ribchester up but they have him at 2/1 joint favourite

Even if he runs, he will be bigger as Churchill will be odds on you’d guess

[TROY111]

Churchill needs a slow run mile as we seen in 2000 G, they tried same in James palace but not allowed to dictate pace. I wonder if carrivagio wasn’t around would we see Churchill drop to 6F. As the season rolls on I may have eat my words, we’ll see.

[TROY111]

I’m not sure Churchill stays a true run mile, the 2000G his stable jockeys dictated pace but the Saint James Palace, not allowed to dictate pace.
Would he return to 6F if Carrivagio wasn’t around.
I maybe wrong, Churchill being entered in Irish derby doesn’t tell us anything.

[Sunspangled]

According to Simon Rowlands sectional debrief, the St James Palace was actually a slowly run race with a sprint finish. Possibly why Churchill was caught out as he was too far off the pace. Ryan eased off on him when his chance was gone and he actually came home under hands and heels without losing any further ground.
But Churchill was below par that day, he never looked comfortable in the race.
I have a theory. Some Galileos sweat a lot before a race, Churchill being one of them. That day was a very hot day, and excessive sweating would cause excessive loss of electrolytes which places a strain on the body.
May not be a coincidence that only two days earlier, Rhododendron was pulled up in the Prix de Diane on a very hot day.

[botchy1]

The trainer of Ribchester has said that he could possibly be heading to France. Just a word of warning to anyone thinking of lumping on him at this moment in time.

[botchy1]

Looks like he is going to turn up to the party

“Zelzal has recovered very well from his return race in the Prix Bertrand du Breuil. I was satisfied with his behavior and he is in good physical condition since. Now, it will be directed to the Sussex Stakes, which will compete on August 2, at Goodwood.”

[Sunspangled]

I think the chances of Churchill turning up here have improved. He’s less likely to step up in distance given that Cliffs of Moher still needs to prove himself over 10f. I still suspect Ribchester won’t turn up here.

[CharlesOlney]

I’m a firm believer that you should always forgive a horse one bad run and so in that vein of thought I’ve backed Churchill at 7/2. He’s still a Guineas winner and despite the menacing presence of Ribchester, the Ballydoyle colt won’t start at anything bigger than 2/1 if he lines up – which I think he will.

[stevecaution]

I thought Fahey had said he was slightly leaning towards the Sussex Stakes for Ribchester. He said that in a live TV interview the other week.

It’s surely the correct race to go to to stamp the horse as the best miler in Europe. Then again, who knows what titting around goes on in the mind of Sheikh Mohammed.

I reckon Ribchester would thump the lot of them.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Nathan Hughes]

Ribchester’s connections would be loopy not to run here and I’m positive he will
I’m sure Barney Roy running over 10f is partly due to Ribchester being aimed at this.
Hannon would normal take Guineas, Ascot then Sussex with his top 3 y/o miler, he did with Canford Cliffs and Toronado anyway although CC took in the Irish Guineas too. Barney’s options were Eclipse, Prat and another French race no mention of the Sussex and this after “talking it over”

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[Voleur]

Ribchester v Churchill is very much on.

I imagine the tactics from a Godolphin/Fahey perspective will be much like those used in the Queen Anne rather than in the Lockhinge. There are those who believe Churchill doesn’t stay a truly ran mile, so no doubt Toscanini will bomb out in front as to avoid a similar result to the 2000 Guineas. Personally I’m not totally convinced that was the case for Churchill’s underwhelming performance in the St James Palace, it would be very rare for a Galileo not to stay a mile, truly ran or otherwise. Watching the race itself, to my eye it looked like he simply lacked a turn of foot on that occasion, whether that was down to the ground I don’t know. He never visibly ran out of steam, he plugged on right to the end albeit looking rather one-paced. However, Clemmie could be used as a means of supporting the opposite side of the argument, she seems to be excelling over 6f so perhaps the family do fare better over shorter distances. Churchill himself was lethal over 7f.
Wouldn’t that be a mind boggler to see Churchill dropped down to 6f and Caravaggio stepped up to a mile?

Anyway, at the prices I can’t side with either of these colts. Ribchester looks unbeatable over a mile lately, but so did Churchill before he lost, I wonder what price he’d be for this if he had skipped Royal Ascot altogether?

I like Zelzal 10/1. I watched him on his reappearance at Chantilly where he finished a length 2nd to Tareef. He really should have won that day, Benoist didn’t seem overly concerned with winning. That was understandable though, given that he had just recovered from the virus that hit Rouget’s stable last season. I imagine the instructions were to give him as gentle a reintroduction as possible, with their sights firmly set on loftier future targets, i.e. the Sussex. Tareef has since gone on to win the Gr.3 Prix Messidor where he beat 2000 Guineas 3rd Al Wukair a shade impressively. On a line through Al Wukair and Tareef (who Zelzal really ought to have finished in front of) Zelzal is good enough to be within half a length of Churchill at the finish, one is 15/8 the other is 10/1. Well done to Botchy and anyone else who is on at 16/1.

Good luck all.

[botchy1]

Difficult to see where 8 runners are going to come from in this race.

Currently odds for the main contenders are

Ribchester – Evs
Churchill – 2/1
Zelzal – 10/1
Thunder Snow – 26.0 ( waiting for QE2 )
Wuheida – 38.0 ( needs further )
Lancaster Bomber – 25/1
Roly Poly – 33/1 ( goes to France )

50/1 Bar

Take out the doubtful horses, Lancaster Bomber seems like the best value bet with 3 places at the moment providing they get fast ground.

[Running Rein]

Re Ribchester…has any horse ever one this at 4 having been beaten in it at 3?
It is usually the other way around. Rip van Winkle, Canford Cliffs and Toronado all being recent examples of colts failing to give the weight to 3yos and beaten at 4, having previously won receiving weight as a 3yo.

Churchill is going to win this isn’t he?

[Nathan Hughes]

Canford Cliffs was up against Frankel
and Toronado was up against Kingman so even at levels would have been hard for those two
Churchill has to bounce back, he ran a lot as a two year old and although not certain and only a hunch on my part he maybe past his peak whereas Ribchester seems to have gotten better with age.

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

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