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Heavy rain forecast for Goodwood from around mid day to almost midnight tomorrow.
Lightning Spear 20/1 each way.
Value Is EverythingI’m a firm believer that you should always forgive a horse one bad run and so in that vein of thought I’ve backed Churchill at 7/2. He’s still a Guineas winner and despite the menacing presence of Ribchester, the Ballydoyle colt won’t start at anything bigger than 2/1 if he lines up – which I think he will.
I’m really happy to be sat on Churchill at 7/2, I don’t think the rain/conditions will be a worry and can see Ryan sitting a lot closer than he was at Ascot. He’s getting half a stone and in my opinion only needs to be within a couple pounds of his best (the mark he recorded at the Curragh) to come out on top of Ribchester. Basically, if he runs to his best he’ll win and I’ve taken 7/2 about that happening.
Heavy rain forecast for Goodwood from around mid day to almost midnight tomorrow.
Lightning Spear 20/1 each way.
Also done Ribchester @ 11/10.
My 100% book for soft ground:
Ribchester 20/21, Churchill 5/2, Lightning Spear 12/1, Zelzal 12/1, Lancaster Bomber 25/1, Zonderland 125/1, Here Comes When 500/1, Kool Company 1000/1, Toscanini No Price (worse than 2000/1)Value Is EverythingThis will be the first time that I bet against Churchill . Usually , I favour the good 3 year old in the Sussex .
However , in the belief that Ribchester is the best miler in Europe and appears to be improving with every race , I have confidently wagered a few shillings on Fahey’s favourite .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Just had a look at the betting and Bet365 are the only lot to price Ribchester up but they have him at 2/1 joint favourite
Even if he runs, he will be bigger as Churchill will be odds on you’d guess
I’ve always thought Churchill was overrated and would’ve been on Ribchester here if Churchill had won the SJP.
In my head, he would’ve then gone off odds on here and I’d get 7/4 Ribchester and oppose him.
I’ll play Ribchester in a multiple but no lumpy bet here as would’ve been the case at 7/4.
Oh well. That 2/1 turned out to be value after that Queen Anne win
Of the champion older milers of the last 20 years, I’d put Ribchester just above the middle ground. He’s a very good horse but he needs positive tactics and needs a pacemaker assist to tee him up. He doesn’t have the turn of foot of a Kingman or Rock Of Gibraltar.
It’s so hard for the older milers to give weight and a beating to the three-year-olds in this race. So few have done it and it only tends to come off when the Classic generation is below-par or the older horse is exceptional. The former is certainly true this year with Churchill looking a bit fraudulent even before being turned over at Royal Ascot and now having added wellbeing questions to answer. His stable companion Lancaster Bomber makes even less appeal – always flattered by making the running at a steady pace so far this season and plenty to prove on a gloopy surface.
This isn’t a conclusion I expected to reach, but I think Zelzal is the bet. Strangely for a Group 1-winning miler, he still feels quite unexposed. He isn’t the archetypal French miler as he really isn’t suited by those turning tracks and always finishes with running left after being held-up off a slow pace. Needless to say, Benoist off/Dettori on is a positive too.
For the first time in Zelzal’s life, he’ll get a rattling pace (psycho Toscanini to do the honours) and be able to really show what he can do. His bare form so far isn’t that far short of Ribchester’s best and the 11/1 v EVS price difference feels crazy.
Each-way is the obvious angle but I think there is plenty of value in the win-only here.
By the looks of the weather report, it’s going to be pretty testing today at Goodwood.
If it turns properly soft, there’s only two horses that will benefit from those conditions,
Ribchester, who should surely win, and HERE COMES WHEN. Of the others,
Lightening Spear has run well enough on it, but only the first two have actually won on
soft. Now I know that Here Comes When, under normal circumstances, wouldn’t get a blow in
here, but with the likely conditions, and in light of the fact that Goodwood has thrown up
some rather odd results this week, I don’t think you can dismiss him getting into the place
money at 80/1. His last two wins were at York in May this year and Bath last September, both
on G/S. His three previous wins, albeit in 2014, were all on soft. The only two horses in the
race that have won on soft, are Ribchester and Here Comes When. The only time Churchill
encountered soft ground, he was beaten, albeit 1st time out, into 3rd. The winner and 2nd
that day have raced 21 times between them since then, with one win between them.I don’t think Here Comes When will win this, Ribchester should, but at 80/1,
surely he has got to be worth the chance of a place.With you on HCW Big G and for the same reasons. Raining there now though hard to say what effect it will have. Crowley also an asset at this track, one which often rewards jocks who are ultra confident on it, as Hughesie was in his pomp.
I’ll side with Lancaster Bomber here…….as usual. The horse has been very good to me, and although he never quite makes it, the 28’s each way is a smashing price.
Heavy rain forecast for Goodwood from around mid day to almost midnight tomorrow.
Lightning Spear 20/1 each way.
I’ve have a belated bet on Lightning Spear as well, at 22/1. He does like the track and has form on a softer surface so if the top two have an off-day he could be there to take advantage. Although I’m still firmly behind Churchill.
If ignoring the St James’s Palace flop, Churchill would be a fair bet @ 2/1. However, it is not possible to ignore Royal Ascot – it happened. So what you’ve got is Ribchester, a horse who’s got a rating good enough to win an average renewal, who’s proven on the ground and ran well last time. Against Churchill, who ran poorly last time out with no excuse coming from connections (imo it’s possible the going was too firm)… who has to prove himself on Soft and improve on what he’s ever done to beat a peak form Ribchester. That said, there is possible improvement in the O’Brien horse and if team Coolmore are confident their horse is back to his best and if believing he’ll act on the ground… there’s no way they’ll let him start @ 2/1. If money doesn’t come late for Churchill late then Ribchester’s chance increases.
Zelzal is a group 1 horse, winning the Jean Prat, but 2 lengths second was Stormy Atlantic. What price would he be here? Zelzal hasn’t raced on anything like these conditions. Can’t see why he’s been backed.
Lightning Spear pulled far too hard to stay the trip in the Eclipse last time out and the ground at Ascot was probably too firm in the Queen Anne. Before that, 3 3/4 lengths runner-up to Ribchester in the Lockinge on soft. Also placed in the 2016 QEII and Queen Anne and won the Celebration Mile here. He’s not that consistent, but shouldn’t be anything like 20/1. This is now an 8 runner race, with the second favourite under a cloud, third favourite hasn’t run on soft, Lancaster Bomber has under-performed on a softish surface, and another 3 of those 8 runners are highly unlikely to figure… Lightning Spear is an ideal each way bet.
Value Is EverythingWise decision to pull Churchill out of the race ; he would have floundered in the mud anyway .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Damn, no Churchill. Fortunately I heard the news before Bet365 did and managed to cash out my 7/2 bet.
And we’re left with the poorest renewal of the Sussex I can remember. Even when Frankel won at 1/20 he was taking on a Lockinge/Champion Stakes winner in Farhh.
Heavy rain forecast for Goodwood from around mid day to almost midnight tomorrow.
Lightning Spear 20/1 each way.
Was waiting all morning. As soon as rain came I put a bet on him.
Let’s see if the Spear performs!
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