Forum Replies Created
New Approach may be the only horse who’s lead pony needs a lead pony!
Well done Henry’
Secretariat’s Belmont preformance was simply staggering…Charlie Hatton (former editor of Daily Racing Form) summed it up for posterity when he said…’He could not have moved faster if he had fallen off the grandstand roof.’
interesting post scally’
I think Alessabdro Volta can run a fair bit faster than the slow Lingfield effort and he would be my pick if he gets the nod for Epsom.
With Dae Re Mi likely to make it a decent clip, I like the look of crual sea at a big price.
Surprised by some of the comment on here on which horse to take out of the race/kingdom of rome unlucky etc.
The winner was full of run at the line, had his ears pricked and is imho by far the best of the horses on show yesterday.
Ballydoyle may want to have a go with Henry’ (doubt they will in the end) but if they do they will want to have a proper 12f horse in the field also.
Washington Irving looks an unlikely candidate after today, that leaves only Alessandro Volta or the as yet untested Kingdom Of Naples as that horse.
If Casual Contest is really going to the Curragh as well as New Approach it is bonkers to aim Alessandro at anything other than the Epsom Derby…trip fine, versatile as to ground, improvement certain (will be better held up off a strong pace) and looks hard to pass also. In addition it looks the lesser race re competitiveness.
He didn’t handle the bend as well as you would like but that could have been down to greenness as much as his abilty round a bend.
….a rethink surely?
I backed Alessandro Volta the other day after Leopardstown…I see it has shortened a fair bit in the last two days. Has it been put up by a tipping line?
Due to run at Lingfield on Saturday…a preferable indication of its standing within the stable would be if it was kept for the Derrinstown on Sunday.
Ravens Pass didnt win the Guineas because he wasn’t bred to do so…ran well for a sprinter.
New Approach didn’t win because he wasn’t bred to do so either.
If a horse misses an obvious target (and the Epsom Derby is the obvious target for New Approach on form, breeding and convention) then it is usually because the trainer thinks/knows it wont win.
Bolger probably knows something about NA’s knees, back or the space between its ears that leads him to suspect he can’t win at Epsom.
bit wide of the mark, sadly
Some interesting points Bulwark and well made but my arguement would not be that Ravens Pass isnt very talented at 7f or 8f, merely that sprint distances will be his best.
When a horse is a true champion (and I think RP will establish himself as Champion sprinter) it can do remarkable things at a range of distances,
Kauto Star for example, but it still has an optimum trip.
RP is clearly one of the best 3yo 7f/milers and can perform (so far just below) with the best of the 7f/milers but he can do even better at what I would consider his optimum trip of 6f.
Lochsong won over 7f at two but she was best at the minimum.
I think RP will establish himself as the best horse in Europe at his optimum trip this season. But I think that distance will be 6f.
My guess is he will run very credibly without winning the Guineas but even if he does win it (I realise I am covering a few bases here) he will prove best at shorter trips and prove himself a champ there.
Steve Miller in his Dosage previews over the last 10-20 years or so insists that the doasage profile for a 2000 Guineas winner must show a Dosage Index (DI) of between 1.2 – 2.5.
Ravens Pass has a DI of 4.6 which would suggest he is one of the least likely winners in the field (on this basis). Perfect July Cup profile, which he probably will win.
I can understand why people distrust or dismiss dosage theory given its calculation and singular aggregation but it has to be said it has a watertight record in the 2000 Guineas in the last decade or so, with recent years being spectacularly good.
For me Ravens Pass has, when in top company, come to win races going very well and then been beaten. If it looks like a sprinter, is bred like a sprinter and performs like a sprinter…
Didn’t betfair have a rather public fallout with Aintree over there previous and ongoing sponsorship?
If 1 or 2 qualifiers make it to the National having gone through Haydock and Cheltenham…betfair automatically hijack a fair bit of coverage (much of it in the wider, non-racing press) and there isn’t anything Aintree or other sponsors can do about it.
Looks like tactical marketing to me rather than reducing chances of it being won.
good spot Bulwark
Red Eye Express a big gamble today
I think some forumites are being very hard on Natagora given her profile and campaigns to date.
It this time of the year it is always legitimate to discuss whether a horse will stay a new distance but it seems to me that she is a miler who has yet to run at her optimum distance. There is nothing in her pedigree to suggest otherwise and I cannot see anything in her racing style either to give concern, quite the reverse.
You might be right re Pyro but I am hoping he was disadvantaged by being unable to quicken on the Polytrack. He will get the race run to suit at Churchill at least, with plenty of pace, a lead deep into the straight and a surface that suits lengthening rather than quickening types.
He has done some pretty amazing things this season so I am hoping this is his proper class.