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ClintM
Different ways to read a race I suppose…
for me the slow pace allowed RDLP to get closer to a superior horse than his ability merited, hence flattered (imho). The form with Lizard Island indicates that Rio ran pretty much to form at the Curragh.In a true run race at HQ he was beaten 5.5 lengths (eased, good for 4 lengths). I also think the view that he was over the top is wide of the mark as he got to within a length of the leader Ravens Pass just over a furlong out. He didnt travel as he had in Ireland, at Longchamp or at Goodwood but this reflected that faster pace and stronger opposition.
looks just a tad below top class for me and Godolphin talking about France rather than Newmarket tends to back this up.looks just a tad below top class for me and Godolphin talking about France rather than Newmarket tends to back this up.
I remember Godolphin running Shamardal in France to make way for Dubawi in the Newmarket guineas, and I know who I would have made the better of those two before and after that decision.
The market isn’t a brilliant guide to the Guineas recently. Only two favourites in eighteen renewals have done the business. There have been several double figure priced winners and there have been plenty of classics where the favourite has never been sighted.
Also, there are plenty of interestingly priced each way touches in the record.
The shortest priced finisher last year was 7th (US Ranger 5/1). The winner was 25/1 and largely unconsidered.
In 2006, there was a 33/1 place (Olympian Odyssey).
2005 saw Rebel Rebel and today’s Magnolia winner Kandidate place at a juicy 100/1 each.
Azamour placed at 25/1 in the excellent 2004 Guineas – I forgot how good that Guineas was!
Zafeen and Norse Dancer placed in 2003 at 33 and 100 respectively.
Even Top placed at 40/1 in 1996
Bin Ajwaad finished third at 66/1 in Zafonic’s and Barathea’s 1993 renewal
Lucky Lindy finished runner up at 50/1 the year before.The race is littered with wins and places at medium prices (12-16) and this year is ripe for an upset – so I wouldn’t be afraid of punting something at a huge price if I fancied one.
Bulwark
Godolphin were not as foresighted as yourself and after his National Stakes victory Dubawi was definetly the stable number one.
RDLP’s chances of winning the Guineas (or even running in it are surely prejudiced by his current position in the pecking order)Anyone any Ideas as to why Chapple Hyams horse FIRESIDE has just sprung a blue line on oddschecker in the last hour or so?
Your guess is as good as mine Bulwark.
I was adamant the day after the Dewhurst that Godolphin would press on t the Poulains for Rio. He was dominant at Longchamp and clearly below what is now the Guineas benchmark in the Dewhurst.
Godolphin have an ideal candidate for the Newmarket Classic in Ibn Khaldun and top it off with McCartney. However, Fast Company would also be a decent candidate for the Poulains, too.
Godolphin have a tendency to bring their horses back from dubai a bit late in the day for the guineas for my liking though, usually you read about them arriving in the UK a few days before the big day.
Snow Ridge done well for second in 2004 but you have to wonder if Dubawi could have won in 2005 with a better prep, he was the favorite on his two year old form, and with no shamardal in the field he should have beaten a field that he proved better than at 1 mile.
They are not the most reliable for the guineas IMO but they do have a fair few good horses, this year.
Apparently Fast Company has showed Godolphin nothing at home so I cant see him being their first string. Ibn Khaldun looks pretty certain to be the one they pin their hopes on whilst I’d expect Rio De La Plata to go to France instead.
From what I’ve read they are likely to go to Newmarket with two horses, three at the absolute most.
I’m not familiar with Fast Company’s previous home work, maybe he’s always been the lazy type but if thats not the case his current lack of sparkle would have to be a worry to anyone who’s backed him.
I have a large position on Raven`s Pass and don`t want more money on the race, but Winker Watson is a very tempting place lay at around 4 on Betfair.
When asked who Chapple-Hyam thought would be his best three year old this season PCH nominated his filly Cape Amber. That surprised me as he clearly held Winker Watson in very high regard as a two year old.
What his nomination tells us I’m not quite sure but reading between the lines I’d be inclined to think Winker Watson (who has apparently grown and matured) isn’t exactly carrying the stables full confidence at this stage regarding the Guineas. Its going to take a very good horse to win this Guineas I think and Winker clearly doesn’t appear to be looking like Pegasus the second at home.
Hence why I believe Fast Company could be a suitable candidate for the Poulains – or maybe in a race further east. Who knows?
With Godolphin muscled up again and Ballydoyle lacking ante-post firepower (IMO and of what we know
) it looks to be a very, very good Classic season coming up.Good point by Aidan on rival forum
Gosden is sounding very positive about Ravens Pass but there has been a possibly significant silence from Bolger’s
Bolger is usually quite forthcoming (correct me if im wrong0 and this has a whiff of Teofilio about it maybe?
Hope not and maybe judging this alittle too soon
I dont know if bolger is so much forthcoming, but last year Teofilo was talked about much more than this one, almost everyday you bought the racing post this time last year there was at least one report about teofilo and bolger had the Racing Post over to his yard (I remember that awesome picture of him that made the front cover and wondered if he was just going to smash everything in 07), its possible that New Approach is living in the shadow of Teofilos 3yo campaign.
One thing thats clear about Bolgers yard, however, is they are not afraid afariad to have a gamble, Teofilo and Finsceal Beo were heavily backed for last years guineas (prior to teofilos announced defection obviously) and Galatee was heavily backed in advance of the 2006 Oaks (prior to her announced defection). Pictavia was also very solid in the e/w market for the 2005 oaks.
New Approach, Saoirse Abu and Lush Lashes have all been quite weak in this years markets, and despite upbeat reports about the latter two they have both flopped along with Finsceal Beo, who was given upbeat reports ahead of the Dubai Duty Free, and there has to be a wonder as to whether the Bolger is a bit out of sorts at present.
I am a big fan of Bolgers yard but it is not a punter friendly one.
Flipping heck I find myself in agreement with Clivex ……… and Bulwark.
I am a bit concerned about Bolger’s yard at present. Not so much the fact that all is quiet but Lush Lashes should’ve run better than it did and Saoirse Abu ran well below her 2yo form.
New Approach is the form horse and if he’s the same horse as last year he has to go mightily close in the Guineas but he won’t if he’s not 100% and I’d like to see a few Bolger horses running upto their form before I’d consider backing New Approach.
I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the form of Bolger. Although he’s had just the one winner this year, 10 of his 22 other runners have been placed. Regarding lack of news about New Approach, the Teofilo affair proved if there was any doubt that Bolger isn’t the sort of trainer to court publicity.
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