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I wouldn’t be overly concerned about the form of Bolger. Although he’s had just the one winner this year, 10 of his 22 other runners have been placed. Regarding lack of news about New Approach, the Teofilo affair proved if there was any doubt that Bolger isn’t the sort of trainer to court publicity.
DJ – Wouldn’t you be concerned that Saoirse Abu who had twenty pounds in hand of anything else on 2yo form could finish only third last weekend in a race she should’ve been able to win if merely reproducing her 2yo form? Its conceivable that she hasn’t improved from 2 to 3 but she ran way below her 2yo form as the market suggested she would, forecast 4/6 (with Racing Post) went off 2/1 or 9/4 (memory fading lol).
Just interested on your take on it.
I think Bolger did court the media quite a bit last year with Teofilo, he had that stable tour, that he done where he had the racing post over and then he had the TV over to watch Finsceal Beo over doing her prep work ahead of the 1,000 (they had probably been over to do one on Teofilo aswell but after he dropped out didnt show it).
Cant remember his exact words last year when asked about the punters who had lost out on Teofilo, but the general reply was something along the lines of punters taking their own risks, which had nothing to with him, and there was something about refunding bets where he refered to people possibly writing to him and maybe he would look at each case (which I assumed was said in jest).
Its possible that after that fiasco however that he wont be as keen to have media involvement, however there is also the element that he had a financial incentive with Teofilo (who looked to have huge stud potential), and has no longer got a financial interest with New Approach since his purchase by princess haya. Who knows but at 5-2 I couldnt back him as everythings stands.
Found this. He hasnt been entirely silent although this is from six weeks ago
Bolger bullish about Classic year
by Johnny Ward, 01 March 2008On the day the flat season recommences in Ireland, setantasports.com hears exclusively from Jim Bolger on his thoughts ahead of what is likely to be another vintage year for the Coolcullen handler.
New Approach is hot favourite for the Stan James 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, while also heading the market for the Derby at Epsom.
Lush Lashes, meanwhile, won the Fillies’ Million at The Curragh last year and has a host of options including the English and Irish Guineas and both Oaks.
Saoirse Abu, a game victor in last year’s Moyglare Stud Stakes, is to go straight to Newmarket for the English 1000 Guineas.
S: How is New Approach?
JB: "He’s very well. I haven’t had a two-year-old to thrive like he has. He’s a massive-looking horse at this stage; he’s put on a lot of weight. He has muscled up well, he’s finished all his slow cantering now and he’s ready to step it up.
"I’m very happy with him – his mind is good and his body is good so I couldn’t be happier with him.
"He’ll go directly to Newmarket. I think he’s both a Guineas and a Derby horse. He’s well proven over seven furlongs, so I can’t see that the Guineas trip is going to be any problem for him.
"Having trained the dam – she got a mile and a half well – and given that the sire [Galileo] obviously got a mile and a half well, it would be a surprise if he did not get a mile and a half."
You said after the Dewhurst that you ‘over-did’ the settling that day. What did you mean?
"After he ran at The Curragh, I didn’t envisage running him again. Shortly before that, Sheikh Mohammed had bought a half-share in him. He expressed the wish about two weeks out before the Dewhurst that he could go to Newmarket.
"I had intended getting racing out of his mind – to get him to settle and lob along – and then I was going to lay him off for a couple of months.
"We just had the two weeks to rev him up again. I didn’t really want to wake him up too much – we just did some half-speed work with him before the Dewhurst and we didn’t have a great edge on him – he wasn’t sharp on the day. He kind of fell out of the stalls and [Kevin Manning] sort of left him alone for a while to see would he pick up himself.
"He was still asleep at halfway so he had to get after him at that stage. He responded very well and it was a different type of race than anything he’d run in before that.
"It should have been a good experience for him even though he made it hard for himself – he was only really getting going at the line."
Are you afraid of anything he’s run against beating him this year?
"I don’t really see anything that was behind him beating him in the future – providing we can turn him out well."
He showed the odd quirk last year before and after races – is that a concern?
"He just had that thing about the archway at The Curragh. People kind of crowd around that and it gets very claustrophobic there. He kind of said no when we got to it so we didn’t persevere. He does have those little traits about him, but over the winter he’s grown up a bit more and I don’t see it as being a huge problem.
"There are more ways to get him into the parade ring than going under the arch. He was fine at Newmarket. I don’t see it as a problem at all."
You spoke about the brilliant Teofilo possibly going for the Triple Crown of Guineas, Derby and Leger as a three-year-old before he got injured. Is this a possibility for New Approach?
"The way racing has gone now and the stallion business, most owners – particularly those with the big studs – are not keen on the Leger.
"At that time, we owned Teofilo ourselves and we were game to give it a go. I had hoped that he could win the three races and then maybe keep him in training as a four-year-old.
"Anyway, that wasn’t to be but if I owned one myself again and he looked like a horse that would stay the mile and six I’d be game to give it a go – I’d worry about the financial consequences afterwards."
He has plenty of options anyway…
"You could start off with the Guineas, then you have either the Epsom Derby or the Irish Guineas, then you have the Irish Derby after that, then you have the King George, York and the Arc. There are no shortage of top races for top horses.
Epsom?
That’s the target anyway.Lush Lashes looks pretty special?
"She’s quite a talented filly. She’s been lacking experience. She will probably have a Guineas trial.
"We have to see whether she’ll go to the Guineas at Newmarket or The Curragh. If she stays at home, there’s a Guineas trial at Leopardstown run over a mile that would suit her. If she were to go to Newmarket, it might be a little bit harder to fit in the Guineas trial as it’s only over seven and the Athasi at The Curragh is only over seven.
"But no prep run wouldn’t really bother me – she was able to win the Goffs Million on her debut and I think she’s the only filly to win a million at her first attempt.
"I can see her getting a mile and a half. That opens up more possibilities for her."
And Saoirse Abu?
"She is also in at Newmarket – that’s her big target at the moment. If she goes there, she will not have a run beforehand."
I’d be confident that Saoirse Abu’s best days are behind her and I’ll be shocked should she be able to win a Group 1 this year, but I take you point her 2-y-o form should have seen her do better. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all should the first 2 confirm the form ahead of her again should they meet in the near future.
Regarding the drift/forecast price, it was always going to be a difficult race to price up dependent on Psalm. She could have been put in anywhere between 6/4 and 5/1 and it wouldn’t have been a surprise, so when the money came for her, something obviously had to give.
Thanks for that DJ.
Peter Chapple Hyam is working Winker Watson over a mile at Newmarket next week will be interesting to see how bullish he is after the horse has worked. Reminds me a little bit of last season when both PCH and myself were in a minority in thinking Dutch Art would stay. I believe Winker Watson will stay he looked to me to be needing further last year. The thing is though that he doesn’t just have to be as good over a mile to win the Guineas he’s going to have to improve by seven or eight pounds.
Interesting runner though, he’s a horse I like.
There’s certainly enough stamina on the dam side to give him prospects of staying 1m but I’m not convinced he will. I don’t have up to date Piccolo av winning distance stats near to hand, but of the 18 horses he has sired that were awarded a Timeform Rating of 100+, 17 proved best short of a mile and only Turbo was effective beyond that distance, and he was out of a winner over up to 2m.
Ive just spotted an entry for next week, which I find very interesting (may turn out to amount to nothing). John Oxx has RED EYE EXPRESS entered in the Craven, he is a once raced son of Giants Causeway, out of a machiavellian mare (the same cross that produced the mighty shamardal). Oxx is a trainer who merits plenty of respect when he sends a raider over to the UK at any level.
I have just had a little speculative 1/2 pt e/w @ 50s for the guineas in the hope that this one turns out to be a proper horse. I like the analysis of his debut win which was only a cork maiden but everyone has to start somewhere.
soon led, joined under 2f out, in front again and stayed on best under pressure inside final furlong
I followed Giants Causeways first crop very closely and found that all his best offspring showed very good batting qualities, Footstepsinthesand had shown this in his guineas win, shamrdal had shown good battling qualities to hold off Indesatchel in the Poulains, Maids Causeway battled brilliantly when losing a shoe in the coronation cup etc. Aragorn came good late from that crop and knocked up the Giants Causeway trademark string of 1s and 2s. There hasnt really been a brlliant giants causeway since his first crop, as possibly Coolmore had their attentions on galileo rock of gibraltar etc, but his first crop was hugely inpressive, and I expect him to make a brilliant comeback soon enough.
Its only really a hunch with Red Eye Express, and indeed nothing solid can be taken from his 81 rated debut win, but I find this one quite exciting and would love it if he can follow on from the others.
It could be a good Craven next week. As well as John Oxx’s horse Aiden O’Brien has an unraced colt by Fuchasai Pegasus entered called Zulu Chief. Ravens Pass, River Proud, Twice Over, Confront, Perfect Stride, City Leader all hold entries.
I don’t expect for a second that all of those will run but it could turn out to be a decent race.
Just after I put that on there is a report about the craven on the racing post site where they have interviewed oxx, interesting IMO.
….a fourth Irish-trained possible is John Oxx’s Red Eye Express, winner of his only race at Cork last season.
Oxx said: "We’ve no good ground in Ireland and we need somewhere for Red Eye Express to run, so the Craven is a possibility at the moment. He’s also entered in arace at Dundalk and we will make a decision on Monday.
"He’s only had one run and is quite inexperienced, but we need to bite the bullet at some point to find out just how good he is.
"He has an entry in the Guineas which is why we are keen to testhim. He’s been going well at home and we don’t know if he is in that league or not, but he’s a nice horse and has pleased us with his work.
"He’s fit and ready to go and has done well over the winter. He’s a big horse who has strengthened up a bit andmatured a lot. He looks a smart sort of horse and we think he has gone the right way."…
Twice Over is interesting, Don’t ask me why, They’ll put me back in again.
I can’t get my head around it’s so got to be worth an interest.Twice Over is interesting indeed. I always took for granted that he would be aimed at the Derby I never for a minute considered that Henry would be considering the Guineas. I can only assume that Twice Over must be showing a lot of speed at home. The Craven looks to be a fact finding mission with him to see how effective he is over a mile.
He was very impressive on both his starts last year, he looked classy so it will be interesting to see how he handles this step up in grade and step down in trip.
Only got back into racing during jumps season so not up to date with classic contenders. What are your thoughts on Nownownow? 54/1 on Betfair and thought that was mighty high for a Breeders Cup Juvenile winner.
Only got back into racing during jumps season so not up to date with classic contenders. What are your thoughts on Nownownow? 54/1 on Betfair and thought that was mighty high for a Breeders Cup Juvenile winner.
Absolutely no chance mate.
"Absolutely no chance" maybe isn’t fair or strictly true but despite being a Juvenile Breeders Cup winner the form isn’t within a stone of the top horses like New Approach and Ibn Khaldoun.
Also a breeders cup juvenile winner has never won a Guineas, they are generally not that type of horse.
He’d be one of the last horses I’d back.
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