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2000 Guineas discussion

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  • #7248
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 186

    Seems a notable absentee from current threads.
    Will get the ball rolling with some opinions (may or may not be facts)

    New Approach
    2yo champ with great attitude and big talent. Looks like the Derby winner to me and is very stoutly bred for a potential Guineas winner. You basically have to be a Nijinsky or Nashwan to win the 2000 with his pedigree. Possible but not likely and also pretty short in the market.

    Ravens Pass
    A sprinter surely, didn’t get home in the Dewhurst (attributed to yielding ground in some quarters) but a short runner for me who won’t appreciate the extra furlong. July Cup type.

    Ibn Khaldun
    Big impression at Ascot and oozed class and power at Donny. Godolphin already talking him up and he looks the one at about 8s. Stamina, speed, ground etc. all proven. Help yourself.

    Fast Company
    Looks fast alright, bred for a mile with a good turn of foot, stable will know him better later this year. Ibn Khaldun’s main danger …if…he runs (Godolphin again) and if he is ok. Recent reports not encouraging. Pass over for now.

    Winker Watson
    Early season 2yo with profile that is rarely successful (except when trained by AB O’Brien). Respected trainer may have another Dutch Art on his hands.

    Rio De La Plata
    Flattered in the National ..put in his place at HQ.

    Henrythenavigator
    More hype than substance … some reasonable excuses but doesnt convince.

    Jupiter Pluvius
    Very short for what he has achieved, stables many successes in this race tend to come from proven 2yo champs.

    Myboycharlie
    Smart at 2 but overtaken by others now, imho.

    Confront
    Solid connections and good win in Hyperion gives him a chance if improving considerably. Others appeal more.

    Summary
    On both performances and optimal breeding for the mile the Godolphin pair of Ibn Khaldun and Fast Company attract me most. With the former very much preferred at 8/1.

    A brief overview to start then…

    #154137
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 186

    Ooops, sorry…new on here and just realised there is another thread on 2000 on an earlier page.

    #154138
    One Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 24

    Nice layout mate,i think New Approach might get done for speed in the guineas,theres plenty of dark horses lurking :wink:

    #154140
    Bulwark
    Member
    • Total Posts 3119

    New Approach is the one to beat on 2yo form, and he looks like hes bred for about 1m2f, which is good in the guineas as many guineas winners are 1m2f types, Haafhd, Refuse To Bend, Shamardal, Azamour,. May be tapped for toe on firmer ground at 1 mile. Antepost favorites have a terrible record in the 2000 guineas and I would have to oppose him if the ground is gd-fm.

    Think Ravens Pass is definitely in the mix if the ground is faster, he is bred for faster conditions and was empatic on such conditions last summer, and impressive enough in defeat on worse ground in the dewhurst, very much a serious condender.

    Ibn Khaldun was impressive when winning the racing post trophy, and although his sire is in his first crop, he looked to have had some some decent 2yos between 6-7fs, could be a guineas horse but I find him hard to place distancewise, current betting suggests he’s come on well and fancied.

    Fast Company is by danehill dancer, who usually come to the fore at about this time of year when there is a bit of cut in the ground (speciosa, indesatchel, decado have all come good in recent seasons at roundabout guineas time when training with cut). Fast Company is currently working in dubai where I would expect the ground is gd-fm but he should have improvement in him when getting onto good ground. Godolphin have a tendency to bring their horses back from dubai to newmarket the week before the guineas, and have also had a tendency to ruin horses in dubai, but think FC is a live contender on everything he has done so far, my presonal favorite of the 2yos last year.

    Jupiter Pluvius is by Johnnesburg who had three smart first crop prospects at the same time last year in Hamoody, Diamond Tycoon and Scat Daddy, none of whom really produced the goods, but they and he showed some hints of real class and I wouldn’t be ruling him out, if O’brien runs him before the guineas then he’s already beaten, as O’brien doesn’t tend to run his main 2000 prospects before Newmarket, and I would see a pre-race entry would as good as a statement that he hasn’t trained on.

    Myboycharlie is by Danetime and Winker Watson is by Piccollo, both are from the same dam-sire and both look like out and out sprinters, indeed Myboycharlie was outstayed at 7f on gd-fm. Think both are well bred for sprinting and could be smart sprinters this term though.

    Rio De La Plata is destined for the french guineas, and he wouldn’t be the first smart horse godolphin have sent there

    On the most likely ground of gd-fm it has to be Ravens Pass, with good reports beforehand and with good ground it would be Fast Comapny for me, soft or possibly gd-sft ground it would be New Approach. A possible good all rounder for an e/w would be Ibn Khaldun.

    #154142
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 186

    Interesting input on breeding Bulwark…I must admit my knowledge is only moderate in that department but i have spent a fair bit of time on Doasge profiles.
    I know Dosage gets a really hard press in some quarters but its record in 3yo classics is excellent and in the 2000 Guineas exceptional.
    Ravens Pass looked like a non stayer to me in the Dewhurst with another furlong just about the last thing he wanted. Dosage profile makes him the first horse to discard and it looked that way in the eye also.

    #154143
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1149

    I’m surprised there are so many people who want to take New Approach on to be honest. The excuses for beaten horse in the Dewhurst aren’t really that strong.

    Ravens Pass is said to want faster ground but his Dewhurst run was at least the equal of any of his previous considering it was the strongest field he had tackled. There certainly doesn’t seem to be any excuse for Fast Company who ran a blinder in the Dewhurst. Ravens Pass ran well for a while then found nothing. Ok he may find more on a fast surface but if he were much better than what he showed at Newmarket he would’ve finished a bit closer IMO it was disappointing the way he found nothing. The ground wasn’t that soft, maybe its just as good as he is?

    I can’t see anything else from the Dewhurst being a threat to the favourite, maybe Rio De La Plata who clearly didn’t run to his peak in the Dewhurst we know that from his previous form but even then he’s twice taken on New Approach and twice he’s been beaten.

    Dark horses? There aren’t many that make appeal. Twice Over will probably miss the race and be targetted at the Derby, Ibn Khaldoun might not run as Godolphin now own half of the field (at least it seems like that) – if he did run maybe he would be the one to trouble the favourite?

    Jupiter Pluvius people are attatching to because he’s Aiden O’Briens and none of O’Briens 2yo’s seemed anything special. On his 2yo form he’s got a helluva lot to find.

    I think New Approach is the obvious choice but he’s not so far ahead of the field on form to make him a good bet IMO. He is only a pound or two better than Fast Company on Dewhurst form for example and Ibn Khaldun’s Racing post form isn’t far behind either. However he has an extra furlong in the Guineas and that will only help him, he will surely improve for that.

    He’d be the choice for me at the moment.

    #154145
    MDeeringMDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    I am excited for Ibn Khaldun being out of an impressive Classic winner in Gossamer. There are ticks across the board with this colt and everything is proven for him to take plenty of beating.

    I don’t want to toss Jupiter Pluvius out the door yet.

    Rio De La Plata for the d’Essai des Poulains???

    #154150
    Bulwark
    Member
    • Total Posts 3119

    I generally try to stay clear of mr prospectors colts as many can be inconsistent, but some smart ones aren’t (dubai millenium, dubawi, and his many top dirt performers) Ravens Pass didn’t look like that sort of horse last year. I will also generally oppose them with cut in the ground, and will expect them to be better suited to firm ground or dirt, but there are no set rules.

    Ravens Pass wasn’t really able to accelerate in the dewhurst ground last year, but he looked to put in a decent run, lets face it he was 3rd. I dont think it was the case that he handled the ground but didnt stay, I would say that is the case with luck money, but ravens pass just didnt handle it aswell as the first two who were bred to thrive on those conditions. Ravens Pass has already seen money of late and as Newmarket starts to come up good to firm in april I think Ravens Pass will start to put in some serious pieces galloping work and his price will shorten considerably further.

    I dont think Fast Company really ran an overall blinder in the dewhurst, he made plenty of mistakes but finished like a star and he certainly looks to have improvement on that.

    I agree that there is very little to knock about New Approaches form, indeed I was extremely impressed that he beat rio de la plata on gd-fm at 7f last season, but he is much shorter than I could consider and I just think that he could be tapped for toe in the guineas, indeed he almost was in the dewhurst on ground that was more in his favour than the guineas is likely to be.

    #154159
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2434

    What worries me about Ravens Pass is that only two horses in the last twenty years were beaten in the Dewhurst and went on to win the 2000 Guineas. These were Kings Best in 2000, and Haafhd in 2004 in that strange Guineas where the horses raced all over Cambridgeshire.

    However Indian Haven, beaten a mile in the dubious Dewhurst won by Tout Seul, won the Irish 2000 Guineas in 2003 and Bachelor Duke did the same two years later.

    History tells us, then, that Ravens Pass, Fast Company, Rio and Luck Money have it to do.

    I’m interested in Flash’s point that Gosden’s animal may turn out to be a sprinter – a la Dutch Art. He was certainly the most impressive 2-y-o I saw last year. There are a few recent precedents for horses beaten in the Dewhurst becoming top sprinters. Horses like Stravinsky (July Cup, Nunthorpe) and Mozart (Jersey,July Cup, Nunthorpe). Red Clubs won the Haydock Sprint Cup last year after being hammered in Sir Percy’s Dewhurst amongst many solid efforts.

    My instincts tell me that the Guineas winner won’t come from the Dewhurst, to be honest.

    #154161
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2434

    As for this weeks hot horse Ibn Khaldun. On trends, I’d rather back him for the Derby (though being by Gossamer, (a half sister to Barathea, he’s certainly bred to win a Guineas – or a Breeders Cup Mile!).

    Yet, I’m struggling to find many horses since 1989 who have raced over that Racing Post Trophy mile trip as a juvenile and then excelled in the mile classics as a three year old.

    Are the Boys in Blue clutching at straws here?

    As for the Autumn Stakes. My! There’s been some anonymous runners in this race over the years – Epic Express anyone – but at least one winner won the Guineas, the great Nashwan in 1989 and a couple of other runners turned out to be quality animals over further, (Presenting, Daliapour and the very useful Nayef).

    And I’m sure on the other thread, someone said that it is more likely for a stray comet to collide with us than a nursery victor to win the Guineas. Certainly no winner in the last twenty years has even run in a handicap as a two year old, never mind won one. An unlikely winner in my opinion.

    #154170
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2931

    If Ibn Khaldun is the best of the Godolphin trio the New Approach has a big problem on his hands having only beaten the second string Fast Company 1/2 a length. Granted Fast Company who is sure to saty further than a mile would be aided by the soft ground. New Approach also took along time to get going in that race and doesn’t look the easiest of rides.

    For me the answer doesn’t lie in the Dewhurst but in the Solario Stakes.

    Raven’s past was held up that day and showed a great turn of foot to leave City Leader in his wake and never at any point looked like stopping.

    That makes Ibn Khaldun 3 length victory over City leader a bit suspect as he quickened past the same horse but failed to make him look as ordinary as Raven’s Past did.

    I have little doubt if you can forgive Raven’s Past his run in the Dewhurst he’s definately the best 7f horse seen out last season and by a long way.

    He never looked happy in the Dewhurst and ran very free early on and he’s gone there way to soon, that’s for sure.

    Maybe he wasn’t quite himself or maybe it was the ground which was down as good to soft soft in places. nowadays who knows but at a guess the way Fast Company ran on the ground may have been more testing than it looked.I disagree I doubt if Fast company would be better with good ground. His 2nd win at york was also on ground with some cut.

    Given the fact the ground in April is usually good or better I think Raven’s pass is well worth the gamble. If they can turn him off and get him to relax he should get the trip but they will have to keep the favourite well in their sites…..If they do I think the’ll do him for toe and show the Dewhurst form to be all wrong.

    I do like New Approach but I think he’s beatable…….the Godolphins must be fairly confident and have a good line to go on but I am somewhat surprised Rio is said to be going to France…………of the 3 he impressed me as the one with the best turn of foot. He too clearly wsn’t happy in the Dewhurst and was eased big time mnear the finish after having to switch late on. Perhaps they think Ibn Khaldun is the tougher of the two and will be better suited if getting into a head to head with New Approach in the stiff uphill finish……seems logical and they may just have the beaten of him….. but IMO what they both will be doing is setting the race up for…..Raven’s Pass who will destroy them for toe if he gets the trip. I think he’s a great bet at 7/1 which is a much more open race than it looks. He will definately start much shorter on the day if the ground come up good or better………soft ground then it’s back to the drawing board I’m afraid

    1. Raven’s Pass 2. Ibn Khaldun 3.New Approach

    #154174
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4492

    Everytyhing about Ibn Khaldun points to him being a miler. I don’t care what the trends say. The majority of Racing Post winners have been won by horses with middle distance pedigrees. You only have to go back to American Post who won the RP Trophy and also proced best around 1m.

    #154176
    ClintM
    Member
    • Total Posts 237

    Rio De La Plata
    Flattered in the National ..put in his place at HQ.

    I have a different take on this horse.

    The National was run at a crawl early and turned into a rush for the wire. From such an unpromising position, Rio did very well to make up as much ground as he did against a horse who had gone through soft fractions and had start on him.

    Sure, Rio got well beaten in the Dewhurst ( unlike the National, a race run a true end-to-end gallop ), but that race could have been a case of one race too many for the Godolphin colt, bearing in mind that he went to Paris in between the Curragh and Newmarket to contest another Gr1, a task New Approach hadn’t been asked to do.

    #154177
    HimselfHimself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3775

    Apparently Fast Company hasn’t being setting the gallops alight for his new owners.

    New Approach for me at this stage – unless circumstances change or something special emerges from the pack.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #154182
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2925

    Fists, that’s a hell of an analysis from a man who, a couple of months ago, said he didn’t know much about the flat.

    Done some revision ‘ave you? :wink:

    Colin

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