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Who will finish 3rd?

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  • #147581
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2931

    I’m afraid I cannot help much with this, but, for some time now, I’ve been on Exotic Dancer to WIN.

    Agreed, it doesn’t look likely, but that’s all to the good, imo.

    On betfair forum, there was a copy of what Pumkinhead said at a preview meeting held in the west of England. he mentioned that Star horse.

    Personally, I take little heed of what trainers say, but I would be delighted to see Jonjo and AP lift the Gold Cup.
    We can but dream – until the race is over.

    Couldn’t agree with you more Sean I am firmly in the Kauto Star camp but I have seen so many upsets in racing that leave us all scratching out heads I wouldn’t be tearing up any tickets just yet……two horses say it all "Foinavon" "Norton’s Coin"

    #147583
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Horse swam for one morning instead of walking Friggo was back cantering the next morning………hasn’t really missed any work unless something else has happened since Thursday evening….

    History shows he needs a run though Fist, and I for one don’t fancy him to show his best without a spin between now and Gold Cup day. If he missed no work why hasn’t Jonjo got him entered anywhere, as surely he has identified ED’s vulnerability when fresh?

    #147635
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2931

    Friggo try and keep up :lol: He had a twinge as I said, I sent Micky a PM hours ago telling him the horse would have a gallop this morning or tomorrow and then they would push on……….Go read what the racing post said just a few minutes ago.

    Another week would have been handy but he’s a big strong horse they will be abale to get plenty work into him and he could be fine.

    I agree it’s not the perfect preperation and he could wake up tommorrow and be stiff as a board as that was his first serious work since Sunday. He’ll feel it in the morning for sure but less than last time IMO. Back in the pool and then it’s all ahead……….I still wouldnt back him at 2/1 in real terms for a place though……….forecast to me could be the most rewarding.

    #147650
    BosranicBosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    I still think Denman will finish third, behind Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.

    Exotic Dancer doesn’t have to improve to get within 2L of KS, Denman does.

    #147652
    graysonscolumngraysonscolumn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6929

    Before this furore regarding Exotic Dancer came out, this thread would have been entitled "who will finish 4th?"

    I’m not too sure of that – to my mind ED has had form and / or fitness questions of varying degrees of seriouness / credibility to answer since Kempton. For me third place has appeared up for grabs – between him and a clutch of others – since then.

    gc

    The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.

    #147669
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    Fist,

    I had already read the RP article before I posted. A gallop to make sure he was OK isn’t what I mean by "a run". Exotic Dancer has always needed to run a race to get him 100% for any major target (see the Paddy Power last year and the Betfair Chase this year as two of the most recent examples), and if he doesn’t get that opportunity prior to the Gold Cup many people, including myself, will be put off.

    #147673
    Sean Rua
    Member
    • Total Posts 511

    Perhaps a nice milkshake will do the trick on the day?

    I hope he (ED) turns up and I hope nobody backs him.

    Some hopes, some would say.

    #147684
    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1593

    May I quote myself from earlier in this thread:

    IMO with proper, unhindered preparation ED wasn’t completely out of the equation for the win.

    So clearly I haven’t backed Exotic Dancer for "3rd place bets", in fact there is no place part to any bet I have on ED for the Gold Cup.
    I’m completely unperturbed by the prospect of facing "the two best 3-milers in the country", as he’s looked most likely against Kauto Star in left-handed clashes where stamina has been more important (BF Chase, ’07 GC), and Denman (+ marks notwithstanding) is yet to post a figure to match ED’s BF run by my reckoning. All of that doesn’t make him a sure-fire winner by any means, but it makes 12/1 stand-out value compared to the 5/4 and 15/8 being offered then about the other two IMO.
    Trainer form I can’t argue with- Jonjo’s been dire since December. Although I backed him in that month for the GC, anticipating the cloud over Jackdaws’ Castle moving on within the space of three months. Alarm bells started ringing slightly when the Cotswolds’ Chase was bypassed, and then after his defection from the RP Chase I was concerned. Now it looks as though he’ll arrive at Cheltenham without a run since December, when all previous evidence points to the horse not going well fresh. ED needs to be 100% if he wants to beat the Ditcheat duo, and my major concern above all is that he now won’t have the chance to be so.

    #147726
    AraziArazi
    Member
    • Total Posts 263

    I too am worried about the lack of a recent run for Exotic Dancer. It’s been disappointing that he’s had a troubled preparation for the race. A fit and well Exotic Dancer would right there with Kauto Star and Denman, I have no doubt about that. Sadly it looks like we probably won’t see the best of him on the day. I’ll be cheering him though hoping that he might be able to run to his best and prove all the people who think he’s just an "also ran" wrong.

    #147728
    BosranicBosranic
    Member
    • Total Posts 1982

    I think he’ll be ridden for a place and hope for the best. I can see him settled out the back, slowly making ground, staying on up the hill and picking off those who have cried enough.

    #147741
    Running ReinRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 185

    I was at Haydock for the Betfair Chase…fast pace 3 miles.
    I felt that day that ED would have a lot more in his favour on Gold Cup day and could beat KS. The respective price meant ED was the only possible bet but, having said that, my confidence has diminished through the injury news since then.

    To answer the original question .. Denman.

    #147742
    AraziArazi
    Member
    • Total Posts 263

    I think he’ll be ridden for a place and hope for the best. I can see him settled out the back, slowly making ground, staying on up the hill and picking off those who have cried enough.

    I think he’ll be ridden like that as well. My opinion is that if he manages to run to his best form (which is unlikely) that he wouldn’t just be staying on for a place. The most popular prediction about the race is that Denman will gallop all his rivals into the ground except Kauto Star and it will be left to the two of them to fight it out. I firmly believe that a fit and well Exotic Dancer would latch on to the two of them and stalk them into the straight. From there on I personally think Kauto Star would use his turn of foot to clear off and leave ED & Denman to fight it out for second spot.

    #147807
    Fist of Fury 2k8
    Member
    • Total Posts 2931

    I have no worries concerning Exotic Dancers fitness as Sir Robert Ogden doesn’t want Jonjo to run him unless he is 100% fit or damn near it.

    If he turns up he’ll be ok but the only way I would back him is in a forecast with Kauto or without him. I don’t believe he can win so EW isn’t an option for me.

    I thiink AP knows better than anyone he is on a wing and a prayer when it comes to beating Kauto.

    People have expressed doubts about Kauto getting the trip, others think if it’s soft ground Denman will beat him.

    I tell you what though, they better be right becuase if he can conquer those two objections nothing is going to stop him from winning this Gold Cup by a long long way. I don’t think Denman has enough pace about him to ever take Kauto of the bridle and Exotic Dancer has improved nothing like as much as Kauto has…………6 lengths or more for me ED 2nd and Denman……where he is going to find the pace to get up the hill after trying to beat off Kauto beats the hell out of me :?

    #147827
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17732

    I just can’t have it that Exotic Dancer will fail "because he needs a run".
    In his last 3 seasons with Jonjo, he has started off every one over an inadequate trip, and has run accordingly. The Gold Cup is entirely different kettle of fish, and I just can’t see his trainer leaving him short of work for his main objective of the season.
    Anyone who thinks the horse improved so much for the 5 days between his Carlisle debacle and his Paddy Power win must think Jonjo a magician anyway, so I can’t really see why they should think he can’t pull another rabbit out of the hat this time?

    #147828
    seabird
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2925

    Reet, please don’t remind me of those two races! :evil:

    I have had problems with the yard’s runners ever since.

    Colin

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