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Friggo try and keep up
He had a twinge as I said, I sent Micky a PM hours ago telling him the horse would have a gallop this morning or tomorrow and then they would push on……….Go read what the racing post said just a few minutes ago.Another week would have been handy but he’s a big strong horse they will be abale to get plenty work into him and he could be fine.
I agree it’s not the perfect preperation and he could wake up tommorrow and be stiff as a board as that was his first serious work since Sunday. He’ll feel it in the morning for sure but less than last time IMO. Back in the pool and then it’s all ahead……….I still wouldnt back him at 2/1 in real terms for a place though……….forecast to me could be the most rewarding.
I still think Denman will finish third, behind Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer.
Exotic Dancer doesn’t have to improve to get within 2L of KS, Denman does.
Before this furore regarding Exotic Dancer came out, this thread would have been entitled "who will finish 4th?"
I’m not too sure of that – to my mind ED has had form and / or fitness questions of varying degrees of seriouness / credibility to answer since Kempton. For me third place has appeared up for grabs – between him and a clutch of others – since then.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Fist,
I had already read the RP article before I posted. A gallop to make sure he was OK isn’t what I mean by "a run". Exotic Dancer has always needed to run a race to get him 100% for any major target (see the Paddy Power last year and the Betfair Chase this year as two of the most recent examples), and if he doesn’t get that opportunity prior to the Gold Cup many people, including myself, will be put off.
Perhaps a nice milkshake will do the trick on the day?
I hope he (ED) turns up and I hope nobody backs him.
Some hopes, some would say.
May I quote myself from earlier in this thread:
IMO with proper, unhindered preparation ED wasn’t completely out of the equation for the win.
So clearly I haven’t backed Exotic Dancer for "3rd place bets", in fact there is no place part to any bet I have on ED for the Gold Cup.
I’m completely unperturbed by the prospect of facing "the two best 3-milers in the country", as he’s looked most likely against Kauto Star in left-handed clashes where stamina has been more important (BF Chase, ’07 GC), and Denman (+ marks notwithstanding) is yet to post a figure to match ED’s BF run by my reckoning. All of that doesn’t make him a sure-fire winner by any means, but it makes 12/1 stand-out value compared to the 5/4 and 15/8 being offered then about the other two IMO.
Trainer form I can’t argue with- Jonjo’s been dire since December. Although I backed him in that month for the GC, anticipating the cloud over Jackdaws’ Castle moving on within the space of three months. Alarm bells started ringing slightly when the Cotswolds’ Chase was bypassed, and then after his defection from the RP Chase I was concerned. Now it looks as though he’ll arrive at Cheltenham without a run since December, when all previous evidence points to the horse not going well fresh. ED needs to be 100% if he wants to beat the Ditcheat duo, and my major concern above all is that he now won’t have the chance to be so.I too am worried about the lack of a recent run for Exotic Dancer. It’s been disappointing that he’s had a troubled preparation for the race. A fit and well Exotic Dancer would right there with Kauto Star and Denman, I have no doubt about that. Sadly it looks like we probably won’t see the best of him on the day. I’ll be cheering him though hoping that he might be able to run to his best and prove all the people who think he’s just an "also ran" wrong.
I think he’ll be ridden for a place and hope for the best. I can see him settled out the back, slowly making ground, staying on up the hill and picking off those who have cried enough.
I was at Haydock for the Betfair Chase…fast pace 3 miles.
I felt that day that ED would have a lot more in his favour on Gold Cup day and could beat KS. The respective price meant ED was the only possible bet but, having said that, my confidence has diminished through the injury news since then.To answer the original question .. Denman.
I think he’ll be ridden for a place and hope for the best. I can see him settled out the back, slowly making ground, staying on up the hill and picking off those who have cried enough.
I think he’ll be ridden like that as well. My opinion is that if he manages to run to his best form (which is unlikely) that he wouldn’t just be staying on for a place. The most popular prediction about the race is that Denman will gallop all his rivals into the ground except Kauto Star and it will be left to the two of them to fight it out. I firmly believe that a fit and well Exotic Dancer would latch on to the two of them and stalk them into the straight. From there on I personally think Kauto Star would use his turn of foot to clear off and leave ED & Denman to fight it out for second spot.
I have no worries concerning Exotic Dancers fitness as Sir Robert Ogden doesn’t want Jonjo to run him unless he is 100% fit or damn near it.
If he turns up he’ll be ok but the only way I would back him is in a forecast with Kauto or without him. I don’t believe he can win so EW isn’t an option for me.
I thiink AP knows better than anyone he is on a wing and a prayer when it comes to beating Kauto.
People have expressed doubts about Kauto getting the trip, others think if it’s soft ground Denman will beat him.
I tell you what though, they better be right becuase if he can conquer those two objections nothing is going to stop him from winning this Gold Cup by a long long way. I don’t think Denman has enough pace about him to ever take Kauto of the bridle and Exotic Dancer has improved nothing like as much as Kauto has…………6 lengths or more for me ED 2nd and Denman……where he is going to find the pace to get up the hill after trying to beat off Kauto beats the hell out of me
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I just can’t have it that Exotic Dancer will fail "because he needs a run".
In his last 3 seasons with Jonjo, he has started off every one over an inadequate trip, and has run accordingly. The Gold Cup is entirely different kettle of fish, and I just can’t see his trainer leaving him short of work for his main objective of the season.
Anyone who thinks the horse improved so much for the 5 days between his Carlisle debacle and his Paddy Power win must think Jonjo a magician anyway, so I can’t really see why they should think he can’t pull another rabbit out of the hat this time?Reet, please don’t remind me of those two races!
I have had problems with the yard’s runners ever since.
Colin
Two reasons, marb:
1) I didn’t have a chance to properly analyse the Betfair Chase until after the Henessey, thus hadn’t yet factored in ED’s best run.
2) I was still expecting half a stone improvement from Denman based on the aforementioned insistence by PN that a run was needed. That did not materialise, in fact he has yet to better that run from my PoV (although I have him matching it in the AON).
And for the record, I don’t have ED ahead of Denman in the pecking order necessarily, I merely stated that on bare form figures (i.e. not factoring + marks in) Denman has yet to match ED’s best in the Betfair Chase.
I think he’ll be ridden for a place and hope for the best. I can see him settled out the back, slowly making ground, staying on up the hill and picking off those who have cried enough.
I hear what you saying Bos but that’s the kind of thing you would do when riding an unfancied horse to try and STEAL a place not when your ridng a class horse like Exotic Dancer.
AP will ride the horse the same way he rode him last year and never let Kauto Star out his sights.
Despite Harry Findlay shouting "come on my son" based on the proximity of the Listner and co during the Lexus Denman is going to have to go faster than he has ever gone in his life to have th remotest chance of shaking of the 2 best chasers (to date) in the country.
No matter how good Denman looks is he that good he can go that fast nd be foot perfect all the way round?……….it’s a lot to ask of any young horse IMO…..Ruby and AP will be well aware that the is going to increase the tempo and when. I think the field is going to split and a wide margin will appear very quickly…….perhaps Neptune Collonges will be the only other horse able to go with them………….IF that gap does not apear and the field are still ptertty much together about 3 out you can forget any chance Denman might have.
For me from about 6 or 7 fences out it will be down to a 4 horse race and by the 3rd last only 3 horses will be in with any sort of chance. There ill be no sitting out the back door by ED hoping to pick up a place just keeeping tabs on the big 2 will ensure him of at least that IMO.
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Denman is going to have to go faster than he has ever gone in his life to have th remotest chance of shaking of the 2 best chasers (to date) in the country.
I think thats debateable Fist. I would argue if you romp home in a Hennessy off of top weight (o.k form ain’t worked out but i’m a purist!), win a lexus and then go on to win a Aon chase it must be a very very good horse who has won at least a few grade one races to be above you in the pecking order, and Exotic Dancer has failed to do that.
Marb
The only reason ED hasn’t done that is he keeps running into Kauto Star – Denman hasn’t yet.Of course ED has a fantastically successful trainer; He just had a winner in a 5 horse race worth a huge 5K for JP and that top dog of a course Bangor.
This of course equals his record for consecutive winners since Jan of :- 1
Hopefully he will beat this record before the end of the season
He had a twinge as I said, I sent Micky a PM hours ago telling him the horse would have a gallop this morning or tomorrow and then they would push on……….Go read what the racing post said just a few minutes ago.
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