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Halcon Genelardais , providing the ground doesn’t dry up. His Chepstow form has been underestimated in many quarters, imo – and has been advertised in no uncertain terms since.
He’ll finish behind Kauto and Exotic, imo, granted slow ground, and granted Exotic reverts to his customary hold-up tactics.
As for Denman, winning a poor RSA, beating badly handicapped horses in the Hennessy, and winning two mickey mouse races since hasn’t fooled me. For what it’s worth, he’s the lay of the meeting, imo.
A fully fit Exotic Dancer is still the main danger.
For those of you who think Denman has a better chance of beating Kauto Star, you have to ask yourself ‘Can Denman get within 2 – 3L of KS?’ Because that’s exactly what he’s going to need to do to finish second.
As I’ve stated time and time again, ED doesn’t have that much ground to make up on KS on a left-handed track. It makes common sense to disregard their respective Old Roan efforts, so Kauto Star has only beaten ED 1/2L (Betfair Bowl) and 2 1/2L (’07 Gold Cup) going left.
If you think Denman will win, then logically it will be a Denman, Kauto Star, Exotic Dancer 1-2-3. Likewise, a Kauto Star victory will produce a KS, ED, Denman 1-2-3.
For those of you who think Denman has a better chance of beating Kauto Star, you have to ask yourself ‘Can Denman get within 2 – 3L of KS?’ Because that’s exactly what he’s going to need to do to finish second.
I would much rather pose the question – can Kauto Star get within 2 or 3 lengths of Denman?
As for Exotic Dancer? Surely the fact that he has yet to defeat Kauto Star after repeated attempts, tells its own story. The only surprise is that Kauto doesn’t have him on his mantlepiece by now.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
For those of you who think Denman has a better chance of beating Kauto Star, you have to ask yourself ‘Can Denman get within 2 – 3L of KS?’ Because that’s exactly what he’s going to need to do to finish second.
I would much rather pose the question – can Kauto Star get within 2 or 3 lengths of Denman?
As for Exotic Dancer? Surely the fact that he has yet to defeat Kauto Star after repeated attempts, tells its own story. The only surprise is that Kauto doesn’t have him on his mantlepiece by now.
Denman hasn’t beaten anything yet that suggests he can defeat Kauto Star. Looking at what they’ve achieved in their respective careers thus far, Denman has to prove he can topple KS, not the other way around.
Until Denman shows he can compete with the very best, I can’t fancy him against KS. The only problem is (for betting purposes) that we all have to wait until the Gold Cup to find out – that’s what makes this years renewal so fascinating.
Can Denman beat Kauto Star? That’s the question that defines the 2008 Gold Cup. If he can’t beat KS over 3m 2f around Cheltenham, he never will.
Then, may God have mercy on them all…
Put it this way
How likely is it that Kauto is really about to come up against the best since Desert orchid? Because that is what Denman will need to be
There arent many horses that I have enjoyed watching more than Denman but even few performances I have seen (im beginning to wonder if any) as impressive as Kauto at Kempton
ED has been swimming etc. not his usual preparation. He may not be fully fit come March 14th. Each time ED has had a break he has run below form, that may or may not be a physical thing, it might be mental. Some horses are too fresh, pulling too hard; others seem to need the run to get their brain back in to racing (ring rusty).
Ginge
Value Is Everything
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ED has been swimming etc. not his usual preparation. He may not be fully fit come March 14th. Each time ED has had a break he has run below form, that may or may not be a physical thing, it might be mental. Some horses are too fresh, pulling too hard; others seem to need the run to get their brain back in to racing (ring rusty).
Ginge
Or it could be that each time he has returned from a break, the race was really not that important?
FFS stop trying to pretend you’re a horse whisperer, and just read his form!ED has been swimming etc. not his usual preparation. He may not be fully fit come March 14th. Each time ED has had a break he has run below form, that may or may not be a physical thing, it might be mental. Some horses are too fresh, pulling too hard; others seem to need the run to get their brain back in to racing (ring rusty).
Ginge
ED has been swimming many many times and the main reason he went last Tuesday was he was a bit stiff ater a seriuos beice of work. Nothing unual about that for a horse who is recovering from a sore back.
There’s more than one way of getting a horse 100% fit Ginge. One is to leave some condition on him and send him for a race that’s the wrong trip or one where he’s outclassed and give him a nice work out without getting into the race……..it’s called schooling in public
Of course Jonjo would never do that, In a pigs eye he wouldn’t He had one prep race behid Monet Garden over totally unsuitable trip and the next thing we knew was he ran Kauto to 1/2 length. Doesn’t that make you a tiny bit suspicous about how fit he was in the former?
Jonjo doesn’t have the luxury of being able to do that so he will simply give the horse much more work to do.
The mistake the doubters about whether he will be fit or not are making is they are presuming this is a case of trying to get a horse fit in 2 weeks,
That is simply not the case he would be pretty much on song when he had the twinge and as he hasn’t had any real break in his work, I think you will find a very fit ED will turn up at Chelters.
ED has been swimming etc. not his usual preparation. He may not be fully fit come March 14th. Each time ED has had a break he has run below form, that may or may not be a physical thing, it might be mental. Some horses are too fresh, pulling too hard; others seem to need the run to get their brain back in to racing (ring rusty).
Ginge
Having said all that I still think he has a better than 6% chance so have backed him at 16/1 ew NRNB. Also Halcon Genalardais 33/1 ew NRNB.
Value Is EverythingGinge you are going to go skint mate unless you change your betting ways.
The chances of either of them beating Kauto and Denman must be very remote. The chances of them both been placed must be 300/1
have 1 pound ew staked 4 pounds
33/1 a place is approx 8/1 giving you 9 quid………..5/4 in real terms
16/1 a place 4/1 giving you 5 quid return …………..1/4 in real terms
crazy bet
Not sure where you got your first calculation from Fist, have you been drinking
£1 e/w = £2 staked. If he gets £9 returned then that’s the equivelant of 7/2.
However, if you calculate in his other bet then it’s £4 staked, £9 returned and that’s 5/4 (not 9/4) isn’t it?Mike
Geesus your right ……..however I have said enough and I got a feeling my good pal Ginge might have an answer………..probably 2.146% knowing him
I changed it don’t tell him
Last time we had a single figure Gold Cup field we had a 25-1 winner with the favourite well beaten.
Why oh why is The Listener running in the wrong race? With rain forecast the race was being set up for him. But for the Ryanair we would get a far more interesting and competitive Gold Cup.
Last time we had a single figure Gold Cup field we had a 25-1 winner with the favourite well beaten.
Why oh why is The Listener running in the wrong race? With rain forecast the race was being set up for him. But for the Ryanair we would get a far more interesting and competitive Gold Cup.
It wouldn’t be more competitive though would it Ken? It would just be a larger field with half of them falling away with half a mile to go.
If only the Ryanair was around when One Man was racing.
Mike
Of course Jonjo would never do that, In a pigs eye he wouldn’t 
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