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Running Rein

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 179 total)
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  • in reply to: Oaks 2018 #1355478
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    My Oaks ratings below…a hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings, slightly weighted for pedigree in the classics.
    Had a decent record previously in some years, first 3 last year (though not necessarily in the right order).
    Personally, in the eye, I like Perfect Clarity… but here is what the numbers say.

    Bye Bye Baby 119
    Magic Wand 112
    For’ Together 112
    Flattering 112
    Wild Illusion 105
    I Can Fly 105
    Perfect Clarity 98
    Give And Take 91
    Ejtyah 70

    The ratings are converted to a BHA scale to make them more normalised and comparable. Think this works ok with the higher ratings but tends to dilute the lower scorers.
    Good luck everyone.

    in reply to: Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2018 #1355464
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Yes, a reasonable review of likely Arc runners does narrow down very quickly to Cracksman & Saxon Warrior in an otherwise uninspiring year…at this stage.
    Cracksman is a real beauty isn’t he? However, it is just so difficult for a 4yo colt to win the Arc due to the weight allowances and the fact that often the best of that crop are already in the breeding shed. About 3 in the last 30 years only have won it!
    A good 3yo or a top filly/mare seems to appear an take it most years. That is why I was against Cracksman missing the race last year. Though all was well from J Gosden’s POV in the end.

    If successful in the Derby (I very much hope so) it is hard to see Saxon Warrior taking in the Irish Derby and the King George before the Leger and the Leger might well mean no Arc bid.
    It also had occurred to me as MV outlined above that an Epsom defeat might well improve his Arc chances (in an antepost sense).
    So given the race is in October the main 3yo is a doubtful runner and the clear form pick is already 5/2 it is hard to find a bet in the race.

    in reply to: Derby 2018 #1354860
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I remember the run up to the 1989 Derby quite well SC (I was tipped up Nashwan for the Guineas in early spring by a resident of East Ilsley but didn’t back him!) but I was on for Epsom at much tighter odds.
    There was a lot of talk about whether Nashwan would handle Epsom….clearly he had the best form and was the best athlete but was he too rangy? too big? or had too long a stride to handle Epsom’s gradients.
    From memory there was much more doubt and chatter on negatives for Nashwan than has been expressed about Saxon Warrior this year. Nashwan started about evens or 10/11 I think and Guy Harwood had a good horse Cacoethes who was well fancied with decent form also.
    In the end Nashwan was just too good.

    I expect SW will prove too good also, I certainly hope so and I do believe he should be odds on.

    I think comparisons with Saxon Warrior & Nashwan’s Guineas are fair enough and fans can agree or not.
    Hard to do anything other than speculate re Epsom as one has run there and the other not as yet.

    in reply to: Derby 2018 #1354859
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I remember the run up to the 1989 Derby quite well SC (I was tipped up Nashwan for the Guineas in early spring by a resident of East Ilsley but didn’t back him!) but I was on for Epsom at much tighter odds.
    There was a lot of talk about whether Nashwan would handle Epsom….clearly he had the best form and was the best athlete but was he too rangy? too big? or had too long a stride to handle Epsom’s gradients.
    From memory there was much more doubt and chatter on negatives for Nashwan than has been expressed about Saxon Warrior this year. Nashwan started about evens or 10/11 I think and Guy Harwood had a good horse Cacoethes who was well fancied with decent form also.
    In the end Nashwan was just too good.

    I expect SW will prove too good also, I certainly hope so and I do believe he should be odds on.

    I think comparisons with Saxon Warrior & Nashwan’s Guineas are fair enough and fans can agree or not.
    Hard to do anything other than speculate re Epsom as one has run there and the other not as yet.

    in reply to: Derby 2018 #1354846
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    SW was top class at a mile in the Guineas because he is top class.

    The horse he reminded me most of at Newmarket, was Nashwan. Take a look at his Guineas and it is very similar to Saxon Warrior in his size, style and distance.
    Nashwan did just fine in the Derby with a pedigree which gave a great deal of hope without being absolutely nailed on.

    in reply to: Sky Sports Racing #1352716
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I am currently not subscribing to either dedicated channel although I have been a longterm subscriber to both in the past and until last year. At the moment work commitments and location mean getting value from subscriptions is difficult.
    I also deliberately removed my Sky subscription on what were, in effect, political grounds.

    Not had a major impact on my lifestyle but one thing I have noticed is that some sports where I previously had an interest, namely Cricket, Golf and Rugby League, and viewed via my Sky subscription have become dead to me and I have subsequently neglected to follow them through other available channels.
    I think this experience/action is not uncommon and highlights the danger of paywall barriers. The replacement of ITV terrestrial with Sky would require a long hard think by the rights holders.
    I think other factors such as ability to advertise gambling products (Bookmakers) on terrestrial television will in the end be the deciding factor on the destination of TV rights.

    in reply to: Frankel's Guineas – your thoughts at halfway? #1352714
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Honestly?…at halfway I said to my friend, “July Cup horse”.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1351635
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I had Expert Eye onside for the Guineas but whilst not terminal it was certainly not a hugely encouraging effort.
    Improvement could be seen by better fitness, settling better and (probably more importantly) faster ground.
    However, many of his rivals can probably say the same.

    16s is about right now I think, haven’t written him off and the performance did remind me a little of Kings Best getting beat in his trial before a stunning win in the Guineas (beating Giants Causeway). Longshot that happens but not impossible.

    Also, small point this, but what was the noseband all about? He has never worn that before and I would have SMS as having less than 5% of his runners in a sheepskin noseband…just didn’t look right.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1351111
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Roaring Lion certainly has always shaped like he needs further but the pedigree isn’t massively encouraging beyond 8f. He looks like he wont be a factor in the Guineas at least.
    Always easy to get carried away by an impressive trial win this close to the big day, especially when the sun is shining, but does Masar looks a threat.
    Expert Eye remains my main hope and a big day for him on Saturday, although worryingly I see the Newbury going remains steadfastly soft despite what is blistering heat here in London today. Hopefully it will dry out a bit and EE has contracted from an opening 6/4 to 8/11 for the Greenham, probably as much to do with a hugely positive write up by Timeform on Wednesday as anything else.

    Saxon Warrior Guineas/Derby double my other classic interest and that is a live bet in my view, current top 3 for Newmarket would be in order;
    1. Expert Eye
    2. Saxon Warrior
    3. Masar

    in reply to: Stride length and frequency – a new angle? #1350576
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Yes, must say upon reading it first time it did seem to be potentially an important approach.
    Immediate difficulty seemed to be getting, and getting accurate, stride lengths.
    Link to ideal distance particularly in the 3yo season…very interesting.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1349059
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    I have backed Saxon Warrior a number of times at 25/1 for the Guineas/Derby double and I confess I didn’t factor the ‘Mendelssohn to Churchill’ possibility on the same day. That was an error, I should have as I have been following the Kentucky Derby trials closely via Youtube this year, Audible impressed most for me so far (outside of Mendelssohn, incidentally).
    Whilst Heffernan is good, however the style of Saxon Warrior as demonstrated at the Curragh, Naas and Doncaster showed he appreciated handling of the strongest and most skillful kind. The loss of Moore on the Rowley mile, should it occur, cannot be seen as anything but a negative for his chances, in my view.
    My other bet for the Guineas is Expert Eye and I have gone in again on him at 11/1.

    Also is there any possibility that Ballydoyle might now consider missing Newmarket with Saxon Warrior?
    Seems unlikely but Aidan has already stated that SW is very big, may take in a trial and if Moore is not available on top of that….might they rethink around the Leopardstown trials, the Derby and an autumn campaign?
    Even if Mendelssohn’s American trip went spectacularly well the Epsom Derby and Belmont don’t clash this year.

    Probably not on balance but I am sure it has been discussed given their options with these two young potential stars.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1348955
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    He will still be on saxon warrior for the derby if he chooses steve even if he isnt aboard at newmarket

    That is a fair point ham and the more I consider, the less certain I am that Newmarket would be the first choice for RM.
    Also, very unusually (maybe 1 year in 10), the Belmont Stakes and the Epsom Derby do not clash this year. Being on the 9th and 2nd of June respectively. All lot of things would have to align for this ever to be an issue but it does remove one stumbling block in the choice.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1348932
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    As exciting as Mendelssohn is, the unique nature of dirt racing surely makes Moore for Newmarket the percentage call.
    As great as Ryan Moore is there might be value in employing a dirt specialist jockey at Churchill Downs. That is of course depending on Saxon Warrior continuing to please and given the type of colt he is big and strong and requiring a lot of handling (RP Trophy) a substitute at Newmarket is almost certainly a downgrade.
    I think they have done the private jet from North American racing on the Saturday to big European event on the Sunday more than once. Although they have generally left right after. If they were to win the media commitments expected would be difficult to juggle…but that is a first world problem clearly.

    Never mind the jockey it would be interesting to see where Aidan went also.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1348443
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    Saxon Warrior in further tonight to 10/1 from 16s for the Guineas/Derby double. That was sudden and dramatic!
    Not moved particularly for either race individually.

    That move feels very defensive and looks very much like…”Ok we have taken quite enough on this special lads”

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2018 #1348392
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    To be perfectly honest RR, I’m not sure Coolmore would give two hoots about winning a Triple Crown with Saxon Warrior. If he did indeed win the Guineas and the Derby, I think the Leger would be way down on their priority list, as winning it would add very little stud value to what he would have already achieved

    You may be right Voleur but I would politely disagree. I don’t think there has been a 3yo colt from Ballydoyle that truly targeted the Arc since High Chaparral and that was after they had won all the races they wanted with him. The English Classics are the cornerstone of establishing stud value for Coolmore. Deep Impact is very important as you, I and others have mentioned.
    We are all (myself in particular ;-) ) getting carried away by what this colt might achieve but my guess is the Arc will not be a target necessarily.
    The Leger is usually regarded as an after thought but Ballydoyle/Coolmore have had one colt that has one both the Guineas and the Derby and where did he end up in September?

    The spirit of Vincent still lurks in Tipperary.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 179 total)