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Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2018

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  • #1352549
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1467

    Hopefully I’ve not created a duplicate thread.

    Ive sided with Cracksman this year having had Enable at 12-1 last year.

    Took just 4-1 as an each way play before the off today as knew bookies would shorten despite being about 2s on.

    Will look forward to see how the 2 stars get on this season in their ‘trials’. :yes:

    #1352593
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Still 4/1 after today’s race Mike.

    Not a great race today for me. Cloth Of Stars couldn’t beat his pacemaker home and that’s three straight runs where Cloth Of Stars has run more than 10 lbs below his OR of 125 for being second in the Arc.

    With Rhododendron likely to have been well short of fitness today and Air Pilot running like a drain, the post race hype has not been matched by the bookies reaction, which was more “Meh” than anything else.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1352606
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1467

    Shorter with my bookie Steve.
    Agree about some of the ones behind being undercooked but so was Cracksman as Gosden said he would come on for the run. What I liked was what he did in the closing stages at 10f. Imagine the gap if it was the Arc distance.

    #1352609
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4141

    Steve has a point, the pacemaker came into the race with a top RPR of 93 and has clearly run a massive career best. But how many times have we seen it happen where the rest of the field ignore the pacemaker only to get caught out? In behind, the jocks would have been looking at Cracksman and taking aim at him. The pacemaker set a sensible pace and then was able to quicken from the front. There were really two races that took place – the pacemaker ran a solo and the rest chased Cracksman. In truth, probably Cloth Of Stars is better over a mile and a half and Rhododendron was under-cooked, but considering Cracksman was also only supposed to be 85% fit then it was a very good effort and one couldn’t help but be visually impressed by the way he stretched and ran through the line to win in a very quick time. As usual with the Frankel’s, the best furlong was the last furlong.

    As for the Arc; well we know that Cracksman has trained on, it is now over to Enable to see if she has. I have no doubt that she will return better than ever but who would you back in a match over 12f on good/ good to soft? I will be reserving judgement on that until I have seen more evidence but it certainly has this poster salivating at the prospect..

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1355425
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1467

    As crazy as it may seem I can see Cracksman shortening again after the Coronation Cup so if you fancy him and are not on then now might be the time.

    #1355429
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    The other one who may obviously shorten this week is Saxon Warrior. If he can land the Derby on soft ground then there will be no doubt on his stamina requirement for the Arc. He’s also a horse who ran late in the season at 2YO.

    Available at 8/1 now, Saxon Warrior is the same odds as Enable in some parts of the board with both horses 6/1 in places. It’s hard for me to see him bigger than 4/1 if he wins the Derby.

    I feel Enable has a bit to prove now. It can sometimes be tricky for fillies at 4YO and Enable probably won quite a weak Arc last season. Runner up Cloth Of Stars hasn’t done a lot for the form since and the races that have been won since have been lesser affairs landed by red hot favourites in the main. With Cracksman looking a much bigger threat than anything she faced last season and the potential for Saxon Warrior to stake his claim after Saturday’s Derby,the setback Enable suffered is going to leave her with potentially little time to get back to her top form of last season and it may well be that even 100% may not be enough.

    It’s 20/1 Bar the front 3 and some of those in behind are no means certain to run, with several only being quoted by one or two firms here and there across the boards.

    I’ve backed Cracksman at 5/1 and feel that Saxon Warrior at 8/1 may be the only other value left. I would back him before Saturday if I had not already backed him before the Racing Post Trophy last year. He was 50/1 then and I figured that if he was Aidan’s best 3YO prospect he would be sure to start much shorter.

    I’ve cursed plenty this Spring already and Saxon Warrior fans will probably be recoiling from their screens with an awful sense of impending gloom.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1355437
    Marginal Value
    Participant
    • Total Posts 653

    Combining Saxon Warrior’s current odds for the Derby, and valueing at Even Money all the positive comments from the Ballydoyle team about going for the Triple Crown after SW’s 2000 Gns win, then it’s about 5/2 that SW will run in St Leger if he is fit. With just three weeks till the Arc, and Coolmore’s marketing of SW as the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky and the first Unbeaten TC winner since goodness knows when, it will not matter to them for him to run in the Arc if he wins the Derby. So I would not be taking effective odds about him of roughly 5/2 With A Run to win the Arc. If he loses the Derby for some strange reason then I would certainly look at backing him at much longer odds to win the Arc, because he is one fine horse.

    #1355464
    Running ReinRunning Rein
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    • Total Posts 185

    Yes, a reasonable review of likely Arc runners does narrow down very quickly to Cracksman & Saxon Warrior in an otherwise uninspiring year…at this stage.
    Cracksman is a real beauty isn’t he? However, it is just so difficult for a 4yo colt to win the Arc due to the weight allowances and the fact that often the best of that crop are already in the breeding shed. About 3 in the last 30 years only have won it!
    A good 3yo or a top filly/mare seems to appear an take it most years. That is why I was against Cracksman missing the race last year. Though all was well from J Gosden’s POV in the end.

    If successful in the Derby (I very much hope so) it is hard to see Saxon Warrior taking in the Irish Derby and the King George before the Leger and the Leger might well mean no Arc bid.
    It also had occurred to me as MV outlined above that an Epsom defeat might well improve his Arc chances (in an antepost sense).
    So given the race is in October the main 3yo is a doubtful runner and the clear form pick is already 5/2 it is hard to find a bet in the race.

    #1355485
    LD73
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1333

    Can only see SW turning up in an Arc if he gets beat in the Derby – the boys have seriously mapped out the Triple Crown for him a long time ago and should he win the Derby his campaign would be geared around the Leger and then retirement (wouldn’t be out of the realms of possibility that they even swerve the Irish Derby as they blamed that hard race Camelot had when winning as the reason he failed in his TC bid).

    Assuming he gets there in one piece I think it is Cracksman’s race to lose even with the weight for age advantage the 3 yr olds have – not a great bunch of older horses around that he hasn’t either already beaten last year or laughed at in the Ganay.

    I still believe he would have beaten Enable in last years race (and I think Gosden knew it as well) and with another year on his back filling out into that frame he could be something special this year.

    #1357663
    ham
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    • Total Posts 2448

    Laurens @ 33/1 Thought shed be shorter tbh, can only see her improving stepping up to 1m4… will get the allowances and she looks the best 3yo to my eye for this bar masar and shes 3 times the price.

    #1357936
    KevMcKevMc
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    • Total Posts 1221

    I’ve had some of the 33s aswell Ham. If Enable doesn’t come back 99% i’ll be back in again.

    #1357971
    PantsPants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 630

    Count me in at 33’s, with the record of 3 year old filly’s in the race it’s a great bet.

    #1357982
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26482

    Laurens is a filly I love, a real trier. But she’s scrambled home in a couple of less than average Group 1’s. Yes, 3 year old fillies have a great record in the Arc; but they are ones capable of beating their own sex with ease. Laurens hasn’t needed to improve much at all in winning those races and the form is way short of what’s needed. On form is almost the same as three fillies. Beat With You a short head in the Saint Alary and beat Musis Amica a fast deminishing neck with just a nose back to Homerique. What price those three? Laurens’ wonderful temperament means imo her price should be a little shorter than those three, but 33/1 Laurens doesn’t look generous to me.

    value is everything
    #1358052
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5768

    CRYSTAL OCEAN 20/1

    Know 3yos have good record but this year crop not look all that for me go with older horse here in race and hope win tomorrow

    #1358114
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2448

    I still think she Will be better over the arc trip, although probably not bred to be, i think shes won the two grade 1s just because shes so tough, 12f will hopefully show more progression, the race is going to cut up somewhat aswell, but what price do you want about a saint alary/diane dual group 1 winner, shes 33/1 in comparison to a non stayer in saxon warrior @ 10/1, shes the same price as elarqaam @33/1,not entirely impossible to imagine that cracksman and enable will miss the race aswell. not sure i can agree gingey that she has less than 3% chance of winning, well not at the moment anyway, there will be more 1 or 2 more trials to come of course.

    Irish oaks will tell us more, as much as i hope they wont send her there.

    Its early days yet and theyll be plenty of ups and downs for alot of these, 33/1 is more than generous IMO, the connections are the sole reason for that, if she was rougets or obriens shed be around 18-20/1 which is what id say is about the correct price at this stage

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