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Saxon Warrior in his prep for Epsom
Derby prep #SaxonWarrior @EpsomRacecourse pic.twitter.com/kml45IDi2R
— Ballydoyle Racing (@Ballydoyle) May 23, 2018
Looked a bit slow to me
But I have to query your line on Young Rascal. I know I’m biased but he’s shown a good turn of foot at Nottingham in his maiden and again at Chester.
He’s almost definitely gonna be better on a galloping track but he picked up smartly when the gap came at Chester and, for me, is one of the few who has shown a turn of foot in the line up.
Depends what’s meant by “turn of foot”, MOM.
Both Young Rascal’s maiden and Chester Vase were run at a strong pace. Any three year old that wins a strongly run 1m3f event on good-soft ground in April is likely to end up a stayer by the end of the year.
In strongly run races the disadvantage of having to “wait for a gap” is far less compared to slowly run races. Often enabling the horse to run equal (advantageous) fractions. Also, the reason horses go clear in the final stages of strongly run races is often due to it staying on and/or slowing down at a lesser rate than his/her rivals. ie Much less to do with actual “speed”. How much of Young Rascal’s supposed “turn of foot” was due to his “speed”?
So although Young Rascal’s effort was a good one and probably worth crediting with a rating a little more than winning distances… It is imo only by a “little”… Worth rating as more than the half length. But although the second Dee Ex Bee is a good horse, he is not imo a true Group 1 class (at least when running short of staying distances). ie Even by calling it say a two lengths victory… beating Dee Ex Bee (who’s available @ around 66/1 for Eopsom) two lengths imo shouldn’t be rated that highly.
On going on the firm side I can only really envisage Young Rascal winning if both Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion fail to stay/give their running. Epsom being a Group 1/better class and (presumably) faster ground both place more emphasis on speed than Young Rascal has previously faced.
That said, don’t get me wrong… Young Rascal may have more improvement in him and even as it is imo has the joint third best chance on good-firm (equal with Masar who’s available at a much bigger price)… And…
If it came up soft ground (placing more emphasis on stamina) Young Rascal would imo have the second best chance and a good second best chance at that! ie If it were soft (disadvantaging most of his main rivals as well as advantaging him) I’d be thinking of backing Young Rascal even at half current odds.
Value Is EverythingYou make a fair point about the fast race.
However, to me eye (and that alone), he’s clearly changed gear in the straight even from the fast cruising speed to kick away from them when the gap opens. I don’t think the form amounts to much but he’s superior to that form as it went against him and yet he still showed enough to win with a fair bit in hand.
I really believe Chester wasn’t the sort of track that would suit but backed him anyway as I thought he would be superior to that field. I maintain that a galloping track would suit but that he still has enough of a turn of foot and cruising speed to stay with the Saxon warriors and roaring lions of the race at Epsom.
Saxon Warrior in his prep for Epsom
Derby prep #SaxonWarrior @EpsomRacecourse pic.twitter.com/kml45IDi2R
— Ballydoyle Racing (@Ballydoyle) May 23, 2018
Looked a bit slow to me
That was deceptive, the speedometer in the Range Rover was reading 55 mph
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I still say there’s going to be a carve up here. The best two horses in the race, are not going act around Epsom. There is no way that Roaring Lion will run straight on that camber, he’ll be into the rails 2f out. I honestly can’t believe they are running him here. He did not stay straight at York, he went left (again). Better than before, but still he went left, on the flattest of tracks.
Saxon’s not going to like the downhill/camber, or the 1m4f to my eyes, looking at his run in the 2000.
He may still win it, as he’s the best horse by far… But he’s no odds on shot at Epsom IMO.
Whatever ‘they’ thought of Saxon last year, as to being a Derby horse… Goes right out of the window IMO, when the horse doubles in size over the Winter. He was absolutely massive when I saw him pre 2000, a monster of a horse. All the talk was of how he’d changed more than any other horse they’d ever had from 2-3yo. I feared that size would slow him down myself, but he creamed that 2000 like a top class miler.
If he wins the Derby, he’s an all time great.
I’m laying him.
That was deceptive, the speedometer in the Range Rover was reading 55 mph
I would ignore that and be more concerned that his work partner was US Army Ranger and USAR was carrying 3 stone more weight than SW.
SW was top class at a mile in the Guineas because he is top class.
The horse he reminded me most of at Newmarket, was Nashwan. Take a look at his Guineas and it is very similar to Saxon Warrior in his size, style and distance.
Nashwan did just fine in the Derby with a pedigree which gave a great deal of hope without being absolutely nailed on.RR, similarities as you say, in the Gns wins of Nashwan and Saxon Warrior. The telling difference come Epsom might be balance. Nashwan was a wonderful mover who seemed barely affected by Epsom’s camber bar a change of leg in the last few strides.
Saxon’s been round Ballydoyle’s Epsom remake at home 50 times, did Nashwan?
More power you have the more chance you have of staying 12F surely Nausered?
Roll on next Saturday, like a kid at Christmas awaiting this monsters next run.
That’s the whole point, Kev – Nashwan didn’t need to go round an Epsom practice course even once.
I remember the run up to the 1989 Derby quite well SC (I was tipped up Nashwan for the Guineas in early spring by a resident of East Ilsley but didn’t back him!) but I was on for Epsom at much tighter odds.
There was a lot of talk about whether Nashwan would handle Epsom….clearly he had the best form and was the best athlete but was he too rangy? too big? or had too long a stride to handle Epsom’s gradients.
From memory there was much more doubt and chatter on negatives for Nashwan than has been expressed about Saxon Warrior this year. Nashwan started about evens or 10/11 I think and Guy Harwood had a good horse Cacoethes who was well fancied with decent form also.
In the end Nashwan was just too good.I expect SW will prove too good also, I certainly hope so and I do believe he should be odds on.
I think comparisons with Saxon Warrior & Nashwan’s Guineas are fair enough and fans can agree or not.
Hard to do anything other than speculate re Epsom as one has run there and the other not as yet.I remember the run up to the 1989 Derby quite well SC (I was tipped up Nashwan for the Guineas in early spring by a resident of East Ilsley but didn’t back him!) but I was on for Epsom at much tighter odds.
There was a lot of talk about whether Nashwan would handle Epsom….clearly he had the best form and was the best athlete but was he too rangy? too big? or had too long a stride to handle Epsom’s gradients.
From memory there was much more doubt and chatter on negatives for Nashwan than has been expressed about Saxon Warrior this year. Nashwan started about evens or 10/11 I think and Guy Harwood had a good horse Cacoethes who was well fancied with decent form also.
In the end Nashwan was just too good.I expect SW will prove too good also, I certainly hope so and I do believe he should be odds on.
I think comparisons with Saxon Warrior & Nashwan’s Guineas are fair enough and fans can agree or not.
Hard to do anything other than speculate re Epsom as one has run there and the other not as yet.Apologies Joe, ‘the telling difference might be balance’ swung me the opposite way of your post.
That was deceptive, the speedometer in the Range Rover was reading 55 mph
I would ignore that and be more concerned that his work partner was US Army Ranger and USAR was carrying 3 stone more weight than SW.
US Army Ranger is a beast on the gallops. He was five stone worse in an actual race
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saxon Warrior is quite different to Nashwan. True, the Dick Hern trained horse was equally as big, but Timeform described him as “deep-girthed”. ie As I understand it (and from memory) without the tummy Saxon Warrior seemed to have at Newmarket. Was that tummy due to fitness? We’ll see at Epsom. Or does he naturally carry plenty of condition? Also – as Joe says – Although a giant, Nashwan was beautifully balanced, with a wonderfully fluent top-of-the-ground action. Very few of that type of mover fail to handle Epsom on a sound surface, and I backed him accordingly. In contrast, Saxon Warrior is perhaps a little wider in front and has an inferior, slightly rounded powerful action. ie Nowhere near as likely to act at Epsom. However, that has probably (to a certain degree at least) already been allowed for in his price.
Value Is EverythingUnless Aiden O Brien is a clueless trainer who knows nothing about what he’s got then I can’t see how SW won’t stay. AOB had said over the winter the horse was being aimed for middle distances with Guineas a possible starting point. This was confirmed just before the Guineas. The fact they are thinking about the Leger as well only reinforces his chance of getting 12f.
It must be people who missed the fancy prices who are looking to get him beat.
The track might. Traffic problems might. A freak improver in the field might.
But it won’t be the trip in my opinion.
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