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Derby 2018

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  • #1311536
    Avatar photoVoleur
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    • Total Posts 656

    I think the way The Pentagon won today was important for all those who backed him for the Derby. If he had blitzed them by 5 lengths we would still be none the wiser as to which race to aim him at; the Guineas or the Derby (possibly both). He showed winning his maiden that he has a lot of speed, but today he showed he is capable of putting his head down and grinding out a win. He definitely stays further imo.

    Ballydoyle seem to have a surplus of promising juvenile colts at the moment, and working out which one will keep on improving is a game of dice. No doubt some will plateau, but who?

    As for Theobald, I am more than satisfied with that effort. All the signs are there that this colt wants further than a mile, and he doesn’t seem one who lacks guts. He was beaten by a an excitingly precocious colt over a trip which I feel is definitely shorter than optimum. Looking forward to his runs in the Futurity and the National.

    More to come from Theobald.

    #1311537
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 31179

    The Pentagon looks a stayer to me too, he was still motoring away way after the line which bodes well

    Blackbeard to conquer the World

    #1311567
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1540

    Everything points to the pentagon staying the Derby distance. A hugely promising colt and his maiden win reminded me so much of Highland reel when Joseph rode out hr only to realise he was 12 lengths clear. I’m sure they are dreaming of the Derby with this colt but one step at a time.

    #1311579
    Avatar photoyeats
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    • Total Posts 3355

    The Pentagon looks Derby material to me, has a real fast ground action.

    #1311593
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    Surely that Delano Roosevelt must be a big player, given how well he stayed on beating a horse with experience. 33-1 seems v generous

    The Pentagon also won nicely but the cat is already out of the bag with that one.

    #1311681
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 1540

    Nelson ran a very promising race. Was checked twice when closing quickly. Didn’t realise how well he had run till watching it for the third time. It certainly looks like aiden has a few decent Derby possibles. Too often his Derby horses haven’t stayed but the pentagon looks nailed on to. Nelsons pedigree would also point to him staying the Derby trip.

    #1313094
    darren83
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    • Total Posts 7612

    Another AOB horse chuck hat into ring with win at Galway AMEONODO MOGILIANI i think spelt it wrong to.Any views on him

    #1315692
    Avatar photoKris
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    • Total Posts 1294

    That’s the Derby winner boys Delanor Rooservelt

    Hi Botchy, I like him too and I was surprised that 33-1 is still on offer for him.

    #1315981
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8253

    I’ve backed Saxon Warrior at 33/1 for the Derby.

    He’s an imposing son of Deep Impact and, unlike September, I think he will progress. He showed an excellent piece of acceleration to destroy his field by more than 3 lengths over a mile today.

    Christopher Robin was odds on for that race but never looked like winning, he finished 7th in the end. I had noticed on his debut that Christopher Robin doesn’t cover a lot of ground per stride, the horse he was second to covered much further per stride. That means that the other horse has to show a greater cadence to keep up.

    Deep Impact concerns aside, I feel Saxon Warrior is a horse with a big future. He could be a Derby type.

    I am still not sure about The Pentagon for this, certainly not a 10/1 this far away from the race.

    People say he was workmanlike in the Tyros but he won it more easily than Churchill did from Alexios Komnenos last year and he clocked a faster time, on allegedly slower ground. It’s when horses start making heavier weather at a mile, that I worry about them being fast enough for a Guineas.

    Anyway, a win next time will surely see Saxon Warrior much shorter for Epsom. I like the way he moves.

    Saxon Warrior 33/1

    Race Video http://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Curragh/27-August-2017/1330

    He makes up some ground in the last two furlongs.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1315984
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    Agree with Saxon Warrior, nice pedigree as well being out of maybe.

    #1315992
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8253

    Agree with Saxon Warrior, nice pedigree as well being out of maybe.

    SkyBet cut him to 14/1, but 33/1 is still available. One report I read said he stayed on to win but my opinion was that he quickened, particularly in the final furlong. He had plenty on with 2F to go and ended up clear with plenty in hand.

    The trainer said the Beresford was a possible and that they can drop to 7F if they wish.

    The full statement from O’Brien was:-

    “It’s lovely to find them. He looks a very smart colt,” said O’Brien, whose charge was given a 25-1 quote for the Investec Derby by RaceBets.

    “He was just ready to come racing. Donnacha said when he pulled him out he took off. That’s great.

    “He really quickened and when you run those horses you are always hoping you’ll find something.

    “He’s a big, powerful horse. The dam was very good. Donnacha was very impressed with him and we’ll try not to go too quick with him.

    “He should come forward and we can do a lot of stuff with him. We can come back for the Beresford or go seven furlongs.”

    Funny how September won and there were multiple, multiple orgasms, yet this fellow doesn’t seem able to raise a stiffy with six boxes of viagra backing him up 😉

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1315998
    Avatar photobotchy1
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    Backed him as soon as he passed the post @ 33’s as a saver. :good:

    #1316012
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8253

    Backed him as soon as he passed the post @ 33’s as a saver. :good:

    I don’t think there is any way Amedeo Modigliani warrants being half the odds of Saxon Warrior for winning a maiden at 2/9 in a bog against four horses who seem to resemble trees. The horse who was runner up to Amedeo Modigliani had been thumped further by both The Pentagon and Rostropovich earlier. I think the form of that bad ground maiden looks flimsy myself.

    As the Galileo son, Amedeo Modigliani has more entries but I much prefer Saxon Warrior visually.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1316015
    Avatar photoBigG
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    • Total Posts 12637

    Completely agree with you on SAXON WARRIOR Steve. I was watching the race, I
    had bet Port Lions who I thought looked like he was holding them all off a couple of furlongs
    out, however he started folding and a few loomed up, but when I saw Saxon Warrior pulled out wide,
    there was only one winner from a furlong out. The rest of them looked like they were running in glue
    when he came sweeping past them, he looks very promising. I had already backed NELSON (mentioned
    earlier in the thread) but the favourite, Christopher Robin, who had chased him home last time out,
    did very little for the form trailing in 7th. I thought after this that I should maybe jump ship and
    I’ve also taken Saxon Warrior at 33s. I’m surprised that there’s still a fair bit of 33s about, he’s
    worth a gamble :good:

    #1316029
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    I know this isn’t related to the derby but I have a theory with maiden races that there’s quite a lot of awful value bets and quite a lot of good value bets.

    For example the market tends to overrate the value of having a run. if you look at the pedigrees then Saxon Warrior arguably had a better one than the favourite christopher robin, but because that had already run that was much shorter in the betting.

    surely punters have to ask themselves is taking 8/11 in a field with so many unexposed horses a value proposition- you could say that I’m using the power of hindsight but I think it’s well known that backing a horse at odds on in a maiden race after it’s had one run is a long term losing system.

    #1316037
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3391

    Every race is different and it depends what trainers have their first time outers, youd be better finding out which trainers to follow first time out (lyons,fahey,jonhston etc) and who to not follow first time out (obrien,weld,stoute eC)

    Sometimes that 8/11 is a great bet sometimes its not, depends on the above

    #1316060
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2044

    The problem with having a bet in the Derby almost a year in advance (fun that it may be) is that you can’t ever be confident enough to have a decent bet and with the sheer number of quality looking maiden winners coming out of Ballydoyle it’d be easy to be sat on half a dozen 2 year olds by October.

    5 of the last 7 Derby winners weren’t even in the betting by the end of August the year before.

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