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Derby 2018

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 417 total)
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  • #1316015
    BigGBigG
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    • Total Posts 7104

    Completely agree with you on SAXON WARRIOR Steve. I was watching the race, I
    had bet Port Lions who I thought looked like he was holding them all off a couple of furlongs
    out, however he started folding and a few loomed up, but when I saw Saxon Warrior pulled out wide,
    there was only one winner from a furlong out. The rest of them looked like they were running in glue
    when he came sweeping past them, he looks very promising. I had already backed NELSON (mentioned
    earlier in the thread) but the favourite, Christopher Robin, who had chased him home last time out,
    did very little for the form trailing in 7th. I thought after this that I should maybe jump ship and
    I’ve also taken Saxon Warrior at 33s. I’m surprised that there’s still a fair bit of 33s about, he’s
    worth a gamble :good:

    #1316029
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    I know this isn’t related to the derby but I have a theory with maiden races that there’s quite a lot of awful value bets and quite a lot of good value bets.

    For example the market tends to overrate the value of having a run. if you look at the pedigrees then Saxon Warrior arguably had a better one than the favourite christopher robin, but because that had already run that was much shorter in the betting.

    surely punters have to ask themselves is taking 8/11 in a field with so many unexposed horses a value proposition- you could say that I’m using the power of hindsight but I think it’s well known that backing a horse at odds on in a maiden race after it’s had one run is a long term losing system.

    #1316037
    ham
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    • Total Posts 2570

    Every race is different and it depends what trainers have their first time outers, youd be better finding out which trainers to follow first time out (lyons,fahey,jonhston etc) and who to not follow first time out (obrien,weld,stoute eC)

    Sometimes that 8/11 is a great bet sometimes its not, depends on the above

    #1316060
    CharlesOlneyCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2050

    The problem with having a bet in the Derby almost a year in advance (fun that it may be) is that you can’t ever be confident enough to have a decent bet and with the sheer number of quality looking maiden winners coming out of Ballydoyle it’d be easy to be sat on half a dozen 2 year olds by October.

    5 of the last 7 Derby winners weren’t even in the betting by the end of August the year before.

    #1316061
    CharlesOlneyCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2050

    But best of luck those braving the misty waters of the market this far out.

    #1316069
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    Every race is different and it depends what trainers have their first time outers, youd be better finding out which trainers to follow first time out (lyons,fahey,jonhston etc) and who to not follow first time out (obrien,weld,stoute eC)

    Sometimes that 8/11 is a great bet sometimes its not, depends on the above

    is there any site we can find this info out?

    #1316083
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    The problem with having a bet in the Derby almost a year in advance (fun that it may be) is that you can’t ever be confident enough to have a decent bet and with the sheer number of quality looking maiden winners coming out of Ballydoyle it’d be easy to be sat on half a dozen 2 year olds by October.

    5 of the last 7 Derby winners weren’t even in the betting by the end of August the year before.

    [/quote

    It’s only a fun punt at this stage and part of the deal for me is getting big odds, so that you don’t need much on. The Pentagon at 8/1 is suicidal punting and he’s not run beyond 7F yet, so it’s speculation that he will stay a mile and a half. It’s one thing to speculate at 33/1 but if you are going to take 8/1, you don’t want many boxes left without a tick and that is not the case with the current favourite.

    Saxon Warrior received a tentative Racing Post Rating of 90. If we compare that to other O’Brien 2YO’s, Nelson started with a 76 and Delano Roosevelt with an 87. Amedeo Modigliani started on 83 and then earned 94 on his second start. These are just ballpark figures of course but Saxon Warrior seems in the right area to warrant a place in the top dozen Derby contenders at this early stage.

    Right now Delano Roosevelt probably sits closest to him after one run. Saxon Warrior clocked a better Topspeed figure though and I would say the son of Deep Impact has shown the best turn of foot of any 2YO colt at a mile so far this season.

    The more I watched the race and looked at the other contenders, the more I felt I needed to shove another tenner on at 33/1. It’s a long way to go but a score at double carpet may give options sometime next year.

    He is cut to 25/1 at best now. I could see him favourite for the race with another win. I don’t think he was 100% yesterday and it sounded like he surprised Aiden O’Brien with how he performed at this stage, when he was declared as just ready to start out.

    Plenty go on to disappoint, Ol’ Man River being an example of a colt who looked good early but never trained on. Saxon Warrior will hopefully turn out better.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1316092
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    The problem with the derby betting which we also saw this year, and especially with O’briens, is he doesn’t seem to know himself who his best colt is

    It would be nice if he just nominated Saxon Warrior as his best horse or something else and just go with that, but you know he’s going to do his multiple darts thing again which always puts me off

    So they’ll all be running against each other. I do think though that Saxon Warrior was a lot more impressive than say Venice Beach was in his first run and that one started at what, 14-1 for epsom? And was possibly 33-1 over the winter? Saxon seems a lot better than that one was so realistically if he doesn’t get injured he’s going to start 7 or 8-1 at the very worst in which case 25-1 is a very good bet

    #1316098
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 640

    The way aiden talked about saxon warrior they knew he was good. I reckon the lads landed a touch on it and the fact that the horse is heading for the beresgord after a maiden win shows he must have been going well at ballydoyle. If he was by Frankel the pundits would be drooling over that run but I thought it was visually hugely impressive. My only worry would be that maybe didn’t stay 12 furlongs but the way the horse finished the race suggests it’s got a very good chance of staying the Derby distance.
    Coolmore seem to be putting a lot of money into war front and deep impact progeny and John magnier always seem to be ahead of the game. Saxon warriors action is very uncomplicated and I hope he trains on as I think he looks the best antenna post bet for the Derby for a long long time.

    #1316100
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    Just one firm (William Hill) going 25/1 now. He’s 20’s with most firms.

    I think Saxon Warrior made a similar type of debut to Idaho at 2YO but with a better turn of speed. O’Brien said about the ultimate Leger faller, that he didn’t need to run again at two years old but went back on that and ran him on bad ground in France, straight into a Group 1 and he got stuffed at a pretty short price for a maiden winner jumping the grades so soon.

    Aidan had a bunch who were much of a muchness last season and that carried on into this year. Perhaps there will be a clear leader this time around.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1316102
    botchy1botchy1
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    • Total Posts 3651

    Looks like we have a bet on guys, can see him ending up at Doncaster after his next run. I thought the 3rd horse ran well also Saracen Knight, interesting to see him run next time as well.

    Glad Steve brought up Delano Roosevelt. The horse who won the last race on the card Warm The Voice finished third to him that day. His trainer was very confident in the interview beforehand that he has a very good horse. He also won at Galway before that.

    Coat of Arms who finished second came out and should of won a G2 race the other week. Probably he is the best Irish maiden in training at the moment.

    Really looking forward to him stepping up in class next time :heart:

    #1316140
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    I went past William Hill’s waving a £5 note. They caved and went 20/1 Saxon Warrior B-)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1316712
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    Runner up to Saxon Warrior, Meagher’s Flag gets the chance to show the worth of that form when taking on an expensive son of Galileo from the O’Brien team in the shape of Family Tree at Gowran Park tomorrow.

    Obviously likely to need his first run, Family Tree is 3/1 and Meagher’s Flag Evens Fav for the 5.05 Race, a mile maiden.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1316765
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    Runner up to Saxon Warrior, Meagher’s Flag gets the chance to show the worth of that form when taking on an expensive son of Galileo from the O’Brien team in the shape of Family Tree at Gowran Park tomorrow.

    Obviously likely to need his first run, Family Tree is 3/1 and Meagher’s Flag Evens Fav for the 5.05 Race, a mile maiden.

    Surprised Madrid is near favourite here. Family Tree is weak out to 5/1.

    I put a few quid on Meagher’s Flag at 7/4 after a decent career start when second. The ground is pretty heavy though but Family Tree will do well to win first time on it and Madrid was beaten a long way in the maiden The Pentagon started out in.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1316769
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8279

    The gamble went astray as Madrid was only third. Meagher’s Flag looked to have it won narrowly but he wandered about a bit and Family Tree came from unpromising position to stay on past the one paced looking leading two.

    A bit small for my liking but Family Tree was clearly better than the money for his stablemate suggested, 5/1 into 11/8.

    Jim Bolger just can’t seem to get them from race 1 to race 2 with much improvement. Probably a mediocre maiden really, certainly nothing like the visual impact of Saxon Warrior.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 417 total)
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