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There was a time when if a trainer had three in the Ante-Post market quoted at 33’s or less during the Winter,then he could be said to have a very hopeful hand at the very least.
Think it’s worth bearing in mind where the yard’s previous Derby winners were at this time of the year as juveniles;
Galileo – had not run
High Chaparral – 2nd in Punchestown maiden
Camelot – had won a Leopardstown maiden
Ruler of the World – had not run
Australia – impressive G3 winner on third start
Wings of Eagles – had won a Killarney maiden on second startThus out the six you’d only have Australia and Camelot on any sort of long list – cannot be a short list yet at such an early stage.Not being purposely negative, but it may be more fruitful searching for candidates from alternative yards.
Saxon Warrior runs in the Beresford on Sunday.
Capri won it last year and Saxon Warrior is odds on this time. Laughing away at the ATR odds guide of 15/8
Delano Roosevelt and Kew Gardens are also in there for O’Brien but Ryan Moore is on Saxon Warrior. Riyazan is also in the mix and he was with Delano Roosevelt and Kew Gardens behind Nelson last time, as they were 3rd, 2nd and 4th in that order behind the impressive winner.
Annoyingly, I backed Riyazan, who had thumped Nelson the time before. Go figure.
Warm The Voice completes the 5 runner affair but despite winning his last three stars he is rank outsider on 16/1 here. Sadly, yet again, the ground is bordering on heavy
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice from Saxon Warrior in that ground in the Beresford.
Still a bit green but he was well in control. Kew Gardens was disappointing today but I reckon Saxon Warrior is probably a worthy favourite for the Derby but 8/1 is pretty skinny now.
Nice to have a 33/1 ticket on Saxon Warrior but it’s an awful long way off yet.
William Hill still show 20/1 but that won’t last, I doubt Stan James on 10/1 will either. Paddy Power were most taken but 6/1 is ridiculous at this stage.
As Aidan would say, “Delighted”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve would you worry that keep talking of him as a pacey sort i remember after THE PENTAGON won maiden you felt speed show that day more guineas type.Would you say the same for Saxon.Even Aidan after both races talking saying has a lot of pace.
I’d be amazed if O’Brien doesn’t have the Derby winner. What hope has anyone else got really?
Well still Nottingham to come normaly Gosden send decent sorts there.But agree look like AOB has winner.But which one will it be
Steve would you worry that keep talking of him as a pacey sort i remember after THE PENTAGON won maiden you felt speed show that day more guineas type.Would you say the same for Saxon.Even Aidan after both races talking saying has a lot of pace.
I think the good thing with Saxon Warrior is that he can sit in behind and then come with a run. He also started his career at a mile. He won today, staying on well all the way in pretty testing conditions. I would be much more confident of him staying, than The Pentagon.
The Pentagon has won twice at 7F and on better ground than Saxon Warrior. In fact, I would be inclined to want to see Saxon Warrior on better ground before having too much confidence in him for Epsom.
The Pentagon is being talked of as a Racing Post Trophy horse but his last race has not worked out great and I always felt Saxon Warrior was much better value at more than three times the odds for the Derby initially.
Aidan say’s he is not sure whether Saxon Warrior will run again this season. If he does, I would like to see him in the Racing Post Trophy. The trainer went on to state that the horse is a “Classic Colt”
I have pencilled in Saxon Warrior on 110 after today, with a ground caveat. The three who ran being Nelson last time ran to similar enough form with each other today to suggest they all ran their races pretty much as they did on the previous occasion. I feel Saxon Warrior has a little more improvement in him and if he faced Nelson soon, I would side with the Deep Impact colt.
As said earlier, 20/1 Saxon Warrior with Hills would not last and they go 10/1 now. Stan James, also as said, cut him from 10/1 into 8/1. If only getting them to win was as predictable.
Saxon Warrior is as low as 10/1 for the 2000 Guineas, as Aidan played up the amount of speed the horse has. This seems the case with nearly every colt he has and I will leave him for the Guineas, as I have three already at 33/1 for the race.
Based on my figure and the initial race figure The Racing Post awarded Saxon Warrior, he has come forward 20 lbs from his first rating of 90. Of course you sometimes get funny results on soft ground in the Autumn but it seems like the field all ran something like their previous form today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Good performance from Saxon and he will certainly be a live contender next year as he looks like he has plenty of improvement in him. I think at this stage Nelson might be a bit more professional and I imagine he will be the one going for the Racing Post. Saxon will probably be put away for the season and turn out again in the Derrinstown. The one that excites me the most is Amadeo Modigliani. The Pentagon was seriously impressive in his maiden but much less so next time out and, as Steve says, neither race has worked out.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The Racing Post awarded Saxon Warrior exactly the same mark I gave him on 110. The Official Irish Handicapper was more impressed with a 112 figure that puts him 4 lbs ahead of fellow market leader The Pentagon.
Nelson is also rated 112 by the Official Handicapper and should be second favourite in my opinion. Gustav Klimt has a lot to prove as a Derby horse for the moment and needs to solidify himself for the Guineas first.
Emaraaty won his maiden as expected and went as low as 20/1 for the Derby. His new Racing Post Rating of 93 leaves him with a good amount to catch up yet and to me it makes no sense to view any value in his odds when Nelson can be backed at the same price.
For me, Amedeo Modigliani is the worst value of the market leaders at 16/1. He won a 5 runner maiden over 8 and a half furlongs on mud and it looks an awful race. The runner-up has not been out again but the 3rd, 4th and 5th have run since and all been out with the washing, they earned respective RPRs of 36, 50 and 22 for those runs. I hesitate to compare them to trees for fear of offending the trees, who can at least have some semblance of motion on a windy day.
Of course, Amedeo Modigliani could be anything in time but there is nothing there to suggest he is a legitimate 16/1 shot for the Derby. He looks like one of those 10F back-end races would suit, or a late season French affair on gutters, such as the one Waldgeist won last year.
That’s my take on it for now and there are bound to be promising maiden winners this month and next who will catch people’s attention and be backed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wouldn’t calculate the merit of the horses obriens horses beat. Very rarely do you get the likes of Frankel and nathaniel in the same race. As with most of aiden top horses he brings them along gradually. He’s having an unusually high number of first time winners especially in the current soft going. We will have to wait and see if this is a top crop of 2yos he has but I suspect he has one or two group one horses in there. I wonder how many more deep impact colts he has as that looks a very exciting stallion.
I wouldnt exactly say its high
And i agree about deep impact, ive been waiting for conclusion to make his debut, hopefully in the coming weeks
Finally conclusion comes out tomorrow ( only mentioned in this thread not suggesting for the derby)
Wouldnt back tomorrow but have been waiting for him to appear
It’s hard to even think about next years Derby as this flat season is just closing down and I’m usually one to take on O’Brien but there is one that caught my eye that it might be worth taking the early prices on …
KENYA currently 25/1
Think he is going to figure big time in next year’s Classics.
Tenderly treated in his maiden won by Flag Of Honour he went on to win comfortably at Cork followed by Group 3 success at Leopardstown beating Mcmunigal who had previously given Flag of Honour a 9 lengths beating and Bye Bye Baby in 3rd.Long way to go and hope the fancied horses all winter well and keep sound ….Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...To be honest I gave up on the idea of betting Ante-post on the derby after wings of eagles won this years renewal.
I couldn’t have predicted that result a furlong out, let alone several months beforehand
Trip just to say KENYA is a horse to follow next year and soon i be put up horses to follow next who are maidens or just a maiden winner.I bump up 2yo thread from last year see how horses i flag up up last year and some did very well.
I really liked the look of Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe who finished second to James Cook at Leopardstown at the weekend. He’s a beautiful looking son of Camelot who ran on really strongly to finish behind the more experienced Ballydoyle colt and I’ve had a small play at 50/1. Hopefully a bigger price will be available later on the exchanges.
I am hoping Saxon Warrior cements himself as a worth Derby favourite on Saturday.
With Aidan not having a really solid Guineas contender at this stage I have had a gamble that Saxon Warrior will then start out in the Guineas next season.
In the Beresford Saxon Warrior was always travelling best and he fairly readily asserted his authority before running a bit green and then keeping on well. 4th and 5th of that five runner affair have both won Listed races since, in ready style in the case of Kew Gardens.
I’ve added Saxon Warrior at 16/1 for the Guineas and have several modest bets on him for the Derby from 33/1 to 20/1. Finally did a Guineas/Derby double at 66/1, which could look huge after the Racing Post. It’s a big ask of course but at 66/1 you don’t need to break the bank. A bit of sport if nothing else and hopefully a ticket to dream about over the winter. The 66/1 for the double is still available with Bet365 and I couldn’t resist those odds with the chance that the horse could possibly be fav for both races on Saturday evening.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really liked the look of Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe who finished second to James Cook at Leopardstown at the weekend. He’s a beautiful looking son of Camelot who ran on really strongly to finish behind the more experienced Ballydoyle colt and I’ve had a small play at 50/1. Hopefully a bigger price will be available later on the exchanges.
Was a very eyecatching run ive taken a bit of the 50s and i also added kenya at 33s at the weekend
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