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I really liked the look of Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe who finished second to James Cook at Leopardstown at the weekend. He’s a beautiful looking son of Camelot who ran on really strongly to finish behind the more experienced Ballydoyle colt and I’ve had a small play at 50/1. Hopefully a bigger price will be available later on the exchanges.
I must confess I liked the look of him as well. Would be good to see Joseph get a really good horse.
I really liked the look of Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe who finished second to James Cook at Leopardstown at the weekend. He’s a beautiful looking son of Camelot who ran on really strongly to finish behind the more experienced Ballydoyle colt and I’ve had a small play at 50/1. Hopefully a bigger price will be available later on the exchanges.
Highly promising start for Latrobe. He earned a mark of 86 from the Racing Post and that’s a good platform to build from. The off-putting thing for me is the trainer.
Normally you would see Latrobe being a shoo-in to turn the tables with James Cook next time but with Joey against Aidan would it be a surprise to see pops coming out on top again, especially with a Galileo versus an unknown quantity in Camelot at the moment?
Latrobe seems like he should fill out over the winter and he looks like he will stay all right. Very promising debut when unfancied. Good luck with him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really liked the look of Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe who finished second to James Cook at Leopardstown at the weekend. He’s a beautiful looking son of Camelot who ran on really strongly to finish behind the more experienced Ballydoyle colt and I’ve had a small play at 50/1. Hopefully a bigger price will be available later on the exchanges.
Highly promising start for Latrobe. He earned a mark of 86 from the Racing Post and that’s a good platform to build from. The off-putting thing for me is the trainer.
Normally you would see Latrobe being a shoo-in to turn the tables with James Cook next time but with Joey against Aidan would it be a surprise to see pops coming out on top again, especially with a Galileo versus an unknown quantity in Camelot at the moment?
Latrobe seems like he should fill out over the winter and he looks like he will stay all right. Very promising debut when unfancied. Good luck with him.
On a related point Steve what is your opinion on horses that finish strongly in their races- it seems to me that in particular in maiden races, any horse that finishes strongly, their performance is then marked up skywards- as if the fact they got behind in the first place is completely disregarded.
I must admit I myself am a bit of a mug for strong finishers, but are they overrated in general?
On a related point Steve what is your opinion on horses that finish strongly in their races- it seems to me that in particular in maiden races, any horse that finishes strongly, their performance is then marked up skywards- as if the fact they got behind in the first place is completely disregarded.
I must admit I myself am a bit of a mug for strong finishers, but are they overrated in general?
It all depends on the circumstances Judge. I think any horse can be forgiven for taking time to get the hang of things on their debut. Inexperience can mean that a newcomer takes time for the penny to drop and then make late progress in a race. That’s different to being outpaced and then making progress as stamina kicks in and other horses tire.
You need to also consider if the others in the race came in with an experience and possibly a fitness advantage. In the case of Latrobe I feel he has done well to run the hot favourite to half a length considering how far clear the experienced horse had gone ahead of the field at one stage. Latrobe was also slowly into stride and you could argue he may have won had he come out of the stalls on terms.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well I totally agree with your as regards Latrobe, I was just making the point in general as regards strong finishers. For example in the fillies mile, everyone was talking about September as being the horse for next year but I’m not sure, that is mostly based on her finishing strongly whereas the horse with more physical scope and early pace, Laurens, seems more tempting to me in the bigger races. But punters love a strong finisher.
Actually going back to Saxon Warrior, maybe one of the reasons why O’brien has been successful is that he’s not one dimensional. For example Saxon Warrior made up a huge amount of ground on his debut. I’m sure if he was with a lesser trainer, based on that run they would stick frank spencer on board for all his subsequent races and try and ride him like that in every run. However they kept him much closer to the pace in the Beresford which makes me think they are thinking about the long term, that they are trying to learn about him.
Trip just to say KENYA is a horse to follow next year and soon i be put up horses to follow next who are maidens or just a maiden winner.I bump up 2yo thread from last year see how horses i flag up up last year and some did very well.
Always look forward to your end of year 2yo review Darren and those to follow for for the new season, I’ll take a guess that Elarqam will be topping the list
he is one that I can’t wait to see again. 
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...This seems a good time to take the Derby thread up to the top again with some of last year’s better 2YO horses due out for a prep race for the Kentucky Derby.
The Epsom Derby market has been pretty static with Saxon Warrior heading the betting at 4/1 and no real sign of any springers in the market.
Mendelssohn, US Navy Flag and some others are already pretty much ruled out, with only one firm quoting each of them. Gustav Klimt seems unlikely to stay the mile and a half trip while Elarqam doesn’t look a Derby type to me.
Aidan has a batch of similar ability in Kew Gardens, Nelson and Delano Roosevelt who are decent but look more like St Leger horses.
Amedeo Modigliani made a promising start but seems way short for then winning an awful looking maiden race next time. It’s sure he will improve but does he really warrant being the same odds as Roaring Lion, a Royal Lodge winner and Racing Post Trophy runner-up. The maiden winner probably needs to find two stones across two races in order to line up with a realistic chance at Epsom. You would think Ballysax and Chester would be likely races as a route to Epsom.
Kenya is interesting. All three runs at 7F so far and his Dam was by Dayjur but he seemed to keep on really strongly in his Group 3 win, taking ages to slow down after the race. The questions would be what he beat and how he would cope on good ground, also we have to think where he sits regarding Aiden’s other contenders.
The Pentagon kept on alright behind the first two in the Racing Post Trophy and belied the huge uneasiness in the betting coming into the race. The question is if he will reverse the form over the Derby trip and will he head to the Guineas as the first two in the Racing Post Trophy seem set to do? I wouldn’t be a player at 10/1 for Epsom.
There may be dark horses yet to emerge and even unraced ones lurking but I feel Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion should be 1-2 in the betting at the moment. Plenty look highly unlikely to me but it will probably be the case that several bubbles burst in the next couple of months. I just hope Saxon Warrior is not one of them. He’s my only bet this year so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One I like at big prices is Without Parole at 40/1 in bet365.
Looked impressive on the same race that was won by Enable on debut and could be anything… doesn’t have an entry for the derby though.What’s your take on him Steve?
Without Parole strolled home on his debut and achieved a RPR of 92. The opposition wasn’t great but he did slaughter them. Plenty of people, including Simon Rowlands, were impressed and it’s not hard to reason why.
Normally I would be happy with a horse rated 92 for a debut but it’s the time of year he started out that worries me slightly.
If a horse were to run to 92 in September say, is one thing but Without Parole earned his mark just a fortnight before officially becoming a 3YO and I think that leaves us pondering how well the September horse might perform with another three and a half months growth on it?
Enable winning the same race the previous year shows it can be done as a starting point but I feel quite a few observers are almost taking it for granted that lightning will strike in the same spot again and that’s obviously a long way off from proving to be the case.
With the way the Derby betting is now, I wouldn’t put anyone off having a bet on something at big odds because the field has plenty who look to be seriously under-priced.
Obviously the lack of a Derby entry and the Frankel being early days into his stud profile are questions compared to some horses.
I have been looking at another Gosden horse who debuted last November at Chelmsford. Photographer wasn’t as spectacular but beat a promising looking Godolphin colt that day. Nothing has run from that race since but with it being 10F at Chelmsford you would be hopeful Photographer will stay and unlike Without Parole, the son of New Approach IS entered in the Derby. I have been toying with a few quid at 50/1.
Without Parole is certainly worth a shout and I might be on but being lucky enough to have backed Saxon Warrior at 33/1 I am hoping that I can get to Epsom without needing a back up. We will wait and see. Good luck if you go for him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Photographer is a full brother to Coronet so I am sure he will definitely stay the derby trip, as to whether he will handle coming down the hill is key, Coronet didnt enjoy it and that cost her. Im sure Gosden has learnt alot from Coronet to know how to prepare Photographer for the derby. As he already has Roaring Lion, I’d just want to know how high he is in his pecking order before having a punt. Havent seen him priced up on the markets though.
Photographer is 50/1 with Bet365 and 33/1 with PaddyPower and some others.
He’s actually a half brother to Coronet as he is by New Approach and the filly was by Dubawi.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve soon i start my flat thread for new season put up darkhorses for season and one of them is CROSSED BATON won 2nd start at Sandown not look like winning until final furlong but further went better he look. horse behind it House Edge won a maiden and Bell talk that horse up a bit already.What your views on Gosden horse.
Darren, for me Crossed Baton is a run behind where I would want him to be.
His RPR of 84 is OK if he had had only the one run but on his second start it’s short of where I would want him to be.
No disgrace in being 6th behind Roaring Lion first time up but that was back in August against a Roaring Lion who was rated 82 by the Racing Post and not the Roaring Lion who worked his way up to 118 in the Racing Post Trophy, so it would be unwise to use the leading Gosden colt as comparison.
Runner up in Crossed Baton’s maiden win did win next time but he was 2/5 Fav in a bad looking Redcar maiden. None of the runs from the Redcar race has yielded even a place, with the 4th horse stuffed off a mark of 64 in a Wolverhampton handicap race.
Without information from the stable it is hard to tell where horses such as Crossed Baton are likely to ultimately end up. The Derby entry does not always mean they end up headed there. It could be that he will start more modestly than that. It’s a long way to Epsom from where he sits at the moment and he’d need big chunks of improvement in 2-3 races to become a Derby contender.
Interesting to see where he starts his season and that race target will probably set the level for the first half of the season at least. The Guineas may end up having the most profound effect on the Derby market this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Amadeo Modigliani my main hope, think he’s the real deal. Bolts up in a trial before the big one hopefully.
Apologies Kev, I pressed the wrong button there. This Chromebook of mine is deadly for clicking anything that gets the merest sniff of the pointer within a kilometre’s range.
Just wanted to say I’d like to see Amadeo Modigliani have two runs before Epsom. I think he might need that extra but of experience. I’d just about have him at my top of the St Leger betting at the moment, so a few quid at 33/1 seems worth getting involved in from a sea of possibles who mostly won’t be coming to Doncaster for various reasons.
The trouble will be that if Amadeo Modigliani does TOO well, it’s less likely he goes to the St Leger.
There is the chance that 33/1 may be the best price he ever is though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
he is one that I can’t wait to see again. 
Jac
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