- This topic has 416 replies, 50 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
The day after the 2000, I wrote on that thread, that even though I’d backed him in the 2000, on first impressions I’d be opposing Saxon at Epsom. I’d only watched the race once, at that time, but after watching the race over and over… I still have the same opinion. I honestly do not think down hill Epsom is going to suit him, and I do not think he will stay a well run 1m4f either. Especially not at even money, or odds on.
Some of you have very fancy prices for him, and he’s a cracking bet for you. But at the prices since he won the 2000, he’s very, very opposable to me. I can see him running out of gas in the last furlong.
At the prices, Delano Roosevelt and Hazapour interest me. Delano screams to me that he will improve over 1m4f, and also with some faster ground. He was only just getting going, half a furlong out in the Derristown over 1m2f. Epsom with its long straight is going to suit him down to the ground. A big strapping horse, he’s got more to come for sure. I’ve had a good bet e/w on him at 20-1, and also a smaller bet on Hazapour at 10-1.
I’ll be cheering Saxon on too for those of you on at big prices, but I just have that feeling that Epsom & the Derby, is just not going to be his ‘bag’. Evens is a shocking price under those circumstances.
Agree nausered, ill be opposing him with something that looks like they need a furious 1m4f and delano roosevelt fits that for me, he will be my main play the day of. SW impressive as he was, is way, way to short atm. Likely to get shorter if something doesnt win the dante well.
I certainly think that the Dante is a fair renewal without being a Golden Horn/Jack Hobbs year.
Roaring Lion should win if he runs to his best and I see no reason why the trip should bother him but given his past behaviour he looks worth taking on. I’ve plumped for James Cook at 12/1, I feel he hated Epsom and should be forgiven that effort under a sympathetic ride. Conditions and the flatter track should suit. I’ve also gone for his Epsom conqueror Crossed Baton at 5/1. Neither will probably lower Saxon Warrior’s colours in the Derby but this is still a good guide for big races throughout the summer.
Dante:
James Cook 12/1
Crossed Baton 5/1I’d want even money that he will even turn up fit and well on the day Ham. He showed so much speed in that 2000, and regardless of what O’Brien says about his run through the dip, to my eyes his head went slightly up in the air on the down hill part. He definitely lost some momentum at that point. The speed he showed through 4/5/6f was incredible after a poor break, the Derby history is littered with very short priced 2000 winners… Who get beat at Epsom.
He’s by far the best 3yo, but if he does not handle the Epsom gradients, or he does not stay, he will not win.
On the 2000 thread, I compared him and his run in the 2000 with Sea The Stars. When he won the 2000, he glided through the dip, and patently looked like he was going to improve massively stepped up in trip. Whatever Saxons pedigree says, he looked like a 1m-1m2f horse to me.
If he wins the Derby with that speed, he will be an all time great after that 2000 performance. I’ll be laying him. I hope he goes long odds on after today.
Not many Guineas winners start off at a mile aged 2YO, so that makes Saxon Warrior an atypical 2000 Guineas winner.
The story going into Newmarket was largely the concern that Saxon Warrior might lack the pace to be competitive, yet he went off a strongly backed second favourite and won pretty readily. I felt he was in front a bit early but he did keep on strongly. I haven’t seen the head on, but it looked to me that Saxon Warrior was a bit green in front and shifted both left and right on the run in, certainly the jockey switches his whip in a manner consistent with correcting waywardness.
I am not someone who pays too much attention to pedigree and would rather trust my eyes and the distance that a horse began it’s career over.
When Golden Horn ran in the Derby, many people reckoned he had no chance of staying the trip because of his pedigree. I went by the evidence in the Dante and the fact that he had won at 1 mile and half a furlong on good to soft ground at Nottingham at two years of age. It also helped that Frankie had said that the horse had never finished tired in any of his work.
With Saxon Warrior we were told after the Guineas that an attempt at the Triple Crown might be on the agenda and that would seem a strange thing to say if there was any real feeling he would not get the mile and a half. It was later said that they sent Saxon Warrior to the Guineas to set up the potential treble last achieved by Nijinsky.
Visually, there is zero evidence that Saxon Warrior will not stay. He has kept on well in every one of his races. He started his career at a mile on yielding ground and he came from far enough back. Asked for his effort at the 2F pole it takes a full furlong for Saxon Warrior to get to the leaders and another half furlong or more to take up the running and score easily. I was on the blower moments later securing 33/1 for the Derby.
On his second start Saxon Warrior was a shade of odds-on despite meeting Delano Roosevelt and Kew Gardens, who also looked useful, and more experienced opponents. The ground that day was soft and parts of the racecourse were heavy in places. Kew Gardens made the running but Saxon Warrior looms up going better, while Delano Roosevelt is under pressure a bit further back. When Saxon Warrior hits the front, he is green and wanders over to the rail, watching it live I wondered if he was going to throw it away but he re-asserts and starts to come away from them. Delano Roosevelt stays on best to narrowly secure second place but the fact is that Saxon Warrior stays on best of the lot to score by two and a half lengths.
In the Racing Post Trophy they were running into a strong headwind and while Roaring Lion was at the back getting plenty of cover, Saxon Warrior was pretty much exposed near the front of the group following well behind the suicidal pacemakers. As the pacemakers come back to the field, Saxon Warrior gets a bit of shelter but when Ryan asks him to go and win the race, Roaring Lion pounces on the outside, looking as if he will sucker the favourite. The Gosden horse has a quicker action than Saxon Warrior and it looks like his move will be a winning one. As he arrives alongside Saxon Warrior the two colts get quite close and Saxon Warrior briefly seems to lose momentum but to his credit he stays on strongly for pressure to regain the lead and sustain the same, narrow, advantage right to the line.
In retrospect O’Brien mused that Saxon Warrior had to go and win the race twice and we now know that he held off an easy Dante winner. He also beat Roaring Lion in the Guineas without the benefit of a prior run.
Mister Baileys is probably the last colt who went into the Guineas as a horse generally felt to be more of a Derby sort coming in. Having won the Royal Lodge at a mile, some questioned if he had the speed for Newmarket but he ran out the winner at 16/1 leading to similar concerns whether he would stay at Epsom. The cat was out of the bag with Mister Baileys pretty early, as he was beaten in the Dante when 7/4 Fav. He later went off at 14/1 in the Derby, when he was clear with half a mile to go but faded into 4th.
The big difference with Mister Baileys for me is that he started off over 6F and then ran at 6F and 7F before his Royal Lodge success. In my mind he never looked a Derby sort, whereas Saxon Warrior was pretty much considered a Derby horse from the first time he set foot on a racecourse. He was big odds for the Guineas even after winning the Racing Post Trophy and the money came relatively late for him in the Guineas.
I’ll be surprised if Saxon Warrior fails to stay and it could be like Camelot’s year, where people search for an each-way alternative at a price, only for it to prove to be in vain.
I sat Camelot’s Derby out and watched it without a bet, I will probably looking at winning margin betting for Saxon Warrior. Roaring Lion looks his only danger and if he goes to France I feel Saxon Warrior will come home in splendid isolation.
Young Rascal has his fans but I feel he’s a few pounds overrated on 112. The official handicapper had to put Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee up 7 lbs to award the Haggas horse his figure and I doubt either of the Chester Vase 1-2 will have to pace to trouble Saxon Warrior.
That’s my two bob worth anyway and I feel that, at this stage Saxon Warrior looks at least as strong as Golden Horn in his season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dermot Weld mentioned yesterday a decision would be made regarding Hazipour’s target this week, seems to be either Epsom or the French Derby.
Saxon Warrior flickered briefly at Evens the other day but is generally 4/6 now. If Roaring Lion goes to France it’s surely 1/2 Saxon Warrior.
With Gustav Klimt and Elarqam the leading two in the upcoming Irish 2000 Guineas, there has to be the chance that the Newmarket 2000 Guineas gets another fillip this weekend.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To me if Saxon Warrior goes off 1/2 fav then that is more reason not to back him!!
Just my opinion but I think he has too much speed to stay and something ( I know not what) will outstay him unless he is finessed to get home which is not Ryan Moores greatest asset.
I am perfectly willing to eat the humble pie should he hose up but at anything odds on he shall not be getting any of my money!!
Surprised there hasn’t been more money for Hazapour tbh. Looks a leading contender for 2nd place.
He beat horses rated 108 and 112 on seasonal debut. Young Rascal the current 2nd fave had the benefit of a run when beating horses rated 103 and 104. One would assume Hazapour would come on for it as well being seasonal debut.I’m quite stuck in on Young Rascal at this stage now from the 20s I originally posted for him a few pages back down to the 10/1 he’s at now.
Shoutout to Charles who’s sitting on the Rascal at 66s. Fantastic price.
Roaring Lion confirmed to be coming to Epsom, so that’s a quality boost for the race. There must be a strong chance the Racing Post Trophy 1-2 will fill those spots again here. For me, their form sits on a different plane to the rest of the field.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To me Roaring Lion is a 10f horse on a flat galloping track. Wudnt be surprised to see him out of the frame.
I’m wth Steve here. SW and RL look streets clear of everything else. I think the only question mark for either horse is the trip. If they stay they will surely have it between themselves. Could be a cracker anyway. A quality Derby I hope!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Frankie riding Hazapour is a fair kick in the stones for Declan McDonogh.
Masar going is interesting, I played him e/w after the Craven at 16s but couldn’t have him beating Saxon Warrior after the way the Guineas went.
I agree that Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion are considerably ahead of others in their Derby chances. I’d have been taking the latter each way but for stamina doubts – a better win only bet. Arguably on the wrong side of the track in the Guineas, racing away from the action. Overall quality of the Dante possibly a little lacking this year, but the way he did it impressive. Quickening clear and more importantly (although I had temperament doubts after the Guineas) looked far more straightforward. Indeed, seemed to enjoy being amongst horses – maturing? 6/1 more than fair.
As I said prior to the first Classic – if there is a real top class performer in this three year old division, it is Saxon Warrior. At a mile class told, having a pedigree suggesting middle distances will suit. That said, both trainer and jockey expressed a belief he’ll be most effective at 10 furlongs, but I expect him to stay. However, can’t be a “main bet” even if still fair odds at around Evens; probably be having a saver.
That 2000 Guineas form looks best and Masar only 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner, seems the forgotten horse. Started favourite at Newmarket and on the face of it a little disappointing given expectations. However, like Roaring Lion (who’s franked the form since) raced a bit away from the main pack. Taking that in to account a reasonable enough performance. Stable in fair form now, not quite what they were when last seen. By one Derby winner – New Approach – out of another one – UAE Derby (9.5f) winner Khawlah. Not certain to stay, but many have more severe doubts. Am sure some will think he isn’t as good on a firm surface, only 6th in Breeders Cup; but may well have won with a better run through. For sure his chance is not as good as Saxon Warrior here, but surely over-priced and worth a bet @ 26/1.
Young Rascal‘s trainer Wiliam Haggas is in great form. One proven at the trip, a good winner of a strongly run Vase at Chester. But will conditions at Epsom place too much emphasis on speed? Probably turn up at Donny with a good chance, but imo needs the heavens to open at Epsom. Comments also apply to Vase second Dee Ex Bee).
The others with a fair chance are Derrinstown Stud Trial principles. Dermot Weld has booked Frankie for his Hazapour – who’s from the same family as the stable/owner’s Harzand – won… O’Brien’s Delano Roosevelt and one time Derby favourite The Pentagon chasing the improved Hazapour home. But they were all separated by a length (3/4, neck).
There may be value with one or two O’Brien outsiders on the day, impossible to know who of them are going to run at this stage.
Value Is EverythingGood post Ginge.
But I have to query your line on Young Rascal. I know I’m biased but he’s shown a good turn of foot at Nottingham in his maiden and again at Chester.
He’s almost definitely gonna be better on a galloping track but he picked up smartly when the gap came at Chester and, for me, is one of the few who has shown a turn of foot in the line up.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.