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At 4-6 Kev, I’ll be laying him 100% (I’ve already started).
I’ve said a couple of times already, I wish good luck to all of those on at very fancy prices, they have cracking bets. It’s The Derby, it’s Epsom. He’s no shoe in.
Compare him to all of the other 2000/Derby winners. To me he looks more speed. A big muscular horse, in my eyes is more likely to be speed, not stamina. Like humans, sprinters tend to be big muscly types, stamina runners tend to be more wiry. He’s no sprinter, but to my eyes he’s also not a stayer. I’m sure this horse is a superstar, but at 1m, maybe 1m2f. Not 1m4f.
At 4-6, I’m happy to back that judgement and lay him for this. I have singles on Delano and Hazapour who I think there’s a chance, will both outstay him.
I couldn’t have Delano Roosevelt and he’s only ever won a maiden. Saxon Warrior stayed on more strongly than Delano Roosevelt in last season’s Beresford, to win by two and a half lengths on proper soft ground. I can see Delano lacking the pace to get involved. I would doubt Epsom is his track. He’s a place lay for me.
The other place lay for me is Masar. He just doesn’t look a 12F horse at all to me and it seems to me that they have campaigned him as a miler and are now reaching straight to a mile and a half in a somewhat desperate jump.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
May 21, 2018 at 20:42
Mike007
Surprised there hasn’t been more money for Hazapour tbh. Looks a leading contender for 2nd place.
He beat horses rated 108 and 112 on seasonal debut. Young Rascal the current 2nd fave had the benefit of a run when beating horses rated 103 and 104. One would assume Hazapour would come on for it as well being seasonal debut.Hazapour form boosted just now at the Curragh.
Not really a form boost there.
Platinum Warrior was the highest rated horse in the race, so was fully entitled to win a very weak renewal. The ratings are what matter and Platinum Warrior set the standard in the Group 3 contest with his RPR of 105.
I think it’s worth remembering that just two runs back Platinum Warrior was 6th in a Handicap from an official mark of 96.
It’s miles from Derby form and today’s runner up Latrobe was an awful favourite, rated 87 on RPR and despite the lazy blurb describing him as unexposed and exciting, the form is woeful. Zero winners from 25 starts in his formlines and he would be looking at Handicaps if he wasn’t by Camelot and needing to find black type.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The ratings don’t always tell the story anyway. Just look at the Irish guineas yesterday. No horse is entitled to win it’s not always that straightforward.
I would like KNIGHT TO BEHOLD to win this.
He is by my favourite racehorse/sire SEA THE STARS. The dam has sired five winners including a G3 winner in Japan.
It would be a nice reward for the owner/breeder Neil Jones.
It’s safe to say that Platinum Warrior would be a huge outsider if he ran in the Derby. It was a group 3 race and a weak one at that.
You can’t compare with Alpha Centauri because she WAS one of the best 2YO fillies of last season, who went astray on bad ground twice and has now bounced back on better ground.
As you say, it could have been worse had he ran poorly, but it’s neither here nor there as a guide to the Derby.
The Racing Post assessor has put Platinum Warrior up 3 lbs for today’s effort but he’s had to give bad favourite Latrobe a 17 lbs rise to achieve that figure for the winner. Latrobe went 86 on his sole run of last season and then went up just 1 lb from that on his seasonal debut. As I said, both races are stinking the place out, so how confident can we be that he’s jumped 17 lbs?
I reckon, if we hadn’t told the assessor that this was a Group 3 race, he wouldn’t have been so kind with the figures. Wouldn’t be backing Latrobe off 104 in a handicap myself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Study Of Man is as low as 16/1 but Pascal Bary said some days ago that he is not coming over because they don’t feel that the colt is ready for a mile and a half at this stage. He will go to the French version instead.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I see the bookies rep nonsense has started. Worse than second hand car salesmen.
“Listen Guv, I’ve got this lovely little runner here. Not many miles on the clock and faster than it looks. Forget your Ferrari, this is your tortoise/hare job here and he’ll wear that favourite down. Won’t get the trip in a horsebox that one. Wins a lot yes, but that’s just because he finishes first all the time”
As Groucho Marx said in A Day At The Races:-
“Well, I don’t need them any better than first”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It has not stopped raining in London all day. Really heavy rain too. It’s going to be pretty soft ground now, looking at the weather for the week. I’d say that will help Saxon if anything. The downhill and the camber, on fast ground, were not going to suit him IMO.
It could be a completely different story though on very soft ground.
Although, he’s going to have to really stay 1m4f now. Money around today for Hazapour & Delano.
Nelson at 100s appeals on heavyish ground, still quite keen on delano roosevelt also but havent bet him yet
A guineas winner on good ground, tough ask if it turns soft/heavy, ill be looking at whos likely to be a leger horse if the rain continues…more a negative than a positive regardless of previous soft form for SW imo
A definite negative for my bet on roaring lion though.
Delano is starting to shorten Ham. I’d got 16’s when we spoke on this thread last week, still 12’s about. A lot of people are going to think the same with all this rain. He could easily be single figures by tomorrow.
I was going to lay Saxon for everything I won on him in the 2000, I might just top up my bets on Hazapour & Delano now.
I’ve never been more certain about a Derby favourite .
My main reason apart from his proven ability is that clearly that Saxon wasn’t ‘expected’ at Newmarket and therefore with expected and natural improvement he will tear this field apart.
Not happy about O’Brien flooding the field though and still haven’t forgiven him for being totally unaware what he had in the race last year when WOE won at silly prices.
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