Derby 2018

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This topic contains 416 replies, has 50 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 1 year, 2 months ago.

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  • #1354845
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    That was deceptive, the speedometer in the Range Rover was reading 55 mph

    I would ignore that and be more concerned that his work partner was US Army Ranger and USAR was carrying 3 stone more weight than SW.

    #1354846
    Running Rein
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    SW was top class at a mile in the Guineas because he is top class.

    The horse he reminded me most of at Newmarket, was Nashwan. Take a look at his Guineas and it is very similar to Saxon Warrior in his size, style and distance.
    Nashwan did just fine in the Derby with a pedigree which gave a great deal of hope without being absolutely nailed on.

    #1354851
    steeplechasing
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    RR, similarities as you say, in the Gns wins of Nashwan and Saxon Warrior. The telling difference come Epsom might be balance. Nashwan was a wonderful mover who seemed barely affected by Epsom’s camber bar a change of leg in the last few strides.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1354852
    KevMc
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    Saxon’s been round Ballydoyle’s Epsom remake at home 50 times, did Nashwan?

    More power you have the more chance you have of staying 12F surely Nausered?

    Roll on next Saturday, like a kid at Christmas awaiting this monsters next run.

    #1354857
    steeplechasing
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    That’s the whole point, Kev – Nashwan didn’t need to go round an Epsom practice course even once.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1354859
    Running Rein
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    I remember the run up to the 1989 Derby quite well SC (I was tipped up Nashwan for the Guineas in early spring by a resident of East Ilsley but didn’t back him!) but I was on for Epsom at much tighter odds.
    There was a lot of talk about whether Nashwan would handle Epsom….clearly he had the best form and was the best athlete but was he too rangy? too big? or had too long a stride to handle Epsom’s gradients.
    From memory there was much more doubt and chatter on negatives for Nashwan than has been expressed about Saxon Warrior this year. Nashwan started about evens or 10/11 I think and Guy Harwood had a good horse Cacoethes who was well fancied with decent form also.
    In the end Nashwan was just too good.

    I expect SW will prove too good also, I certainly hope so and I do believe he should be odds on.

    I think comparisons with Saxon Warrior & Nashwan’s Guineas are fair enough and fans can agree or not.
    Hard to do anything other than speculate re Epsom as one has run there and the other not as yet.

    #1354860
    Running Rein
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    I remember the run up to the 1989 Derby quite well SC (I was tipped up Nashwan for the Guineas in early spring by a resident of East Ilsley but didn’t back him!) but I was on for Epsom at much tighter odds.
    There was a lot of talk about whether Nashwan would handle Epsom….clearly he had the best form and was the best athlete but was he too rangy? too big? or had too long a stride to handle Epsom’s gradients.
    From memory there was much more doubt and chatter on negatives for Nashwan than has been expressed about Saxon Warrior this year. Nashwan started about evens or 10/11 I think and Guy Harwood had a good horse Cacoethes who was well fancied with decent form also.
    In the end Nashwan was just too good.

    I expect SW will prove too good also, I certainly hope so and I do believe he should be odds on.

    I think comparisons with Saxon Warrior & Nashwan’s Guineas are fair enough and fans can agree or not.
    Hard to do anything other than speculate re Epsom as one has run there and the other not as yet.

    #1354862
    KevMc
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    Apologies Joe, ‘the telling difference might be balance’ swung me the opposite way of your post.

    #1354865
    stevecaution
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    That was deceptive, the speedometer in the Range Rover was reading 55 mph

    I would ignore that and be more concerned that his work partner was US Army Ranger and USAR was carrying 3 stone more weight than SW.

    US Army Ranger is a beast on the gallops. He was five stone worse in an actual race ;-)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1354868
    Gingertipster
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    Saxon Warrior is quite different to Nashwan. True, the Dick Hern trained horse was equally as big, but Timeform described him as “deep-girthed”. ie As I understand it (and from memory) without the tummy Saxon Warrior seemed to have at Newmarket. Was that tummy due to fitness? We’ll see at Epsom. Or does he naturally carry plenty of condition? Also – as Joe says – Although a giant, Nashwan was beautifully balanced, with a wonderfully fluent top-of-the-ground action. Very few of that type of mover fail to handle Epsom on a sound surface, and I backed him accordingly. In contrast, Saxon Warrior is perhaps a little wider in front and has an inferior, slightly rounded powerful action. ie Nowhere near as likely to act at Epsom. However, that has probably (to a certain degree at least) already been allowed for in his price.

    value is everything
    #1354877

    Mike007
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    Unless Aiden O Brien is a clueless trainer who knows nothing about what he’s got then I can’t see how SW won’t stay. AOB had said over the winter the horse was being aimed for middle distances with Guineas a possible starting point. This was confirmed just before the Guineas. The fact they are thinking about the Leger as well only reinforces his chance of getting 12f.

    It must be people who missed the fancy prices who are looking to get him beat.
    The track might. Traffic problems might. A freak improver in the field might.
    But it won’t be the trip in my opinion. :yes:

    #1354884
    steeplechasing
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    No worries, Kev

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1355074

    Nausered
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    At 4-6 Kev, I’ll be laying him 100% (I’ve already started).

    I’ve said a couple of times already, I wish good luck to all of those on at very fancy prices, they have cracking bets. It’s The Derby, it’s Epsom. He’s no shoe in.

    Compare him to all of the other 2000/Derby winners. To me he looks more speed. A big muscular horse, in my eyes is more likely to be speed, not stamina. Like humans, sprinters tend to be big muscly types, stamina runners tend to be more wiry. He’s no sprinter, but to my eyes he’s also not a stayer. I’m sure this horse is a superstar, but at 1m, maybe 1m2f. Not 1m4f.

    At 4-6, I’m happy to back that judgement and lay him for this. I have singles on Delano and Hazapour who I think there’s a chance, will both outstay him.

    #1355116
    stevecaution
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    I couldn’t have Delano Roosevelt and he’s only ever won a maiden. Saxon Warrior stayed on more strongly than Delano Roosevelt in last season’s Beresford, to win by two and a half lengths on proper soft ground. I can see Delano lacking the pace to get involved. I would doubt Epsom is his track. He’s a place lay for me.

    The other place lay for me is Masar. He just doesn’t look a 12F horse at all to me and it seems to me that they have campaigned him as a miler and are now reaching straight to a mile and a half in a somewhat desperate jump.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1355197

    Mike007
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    May 21, 2018 at 20:42
    Mike007
    Surprised there hasn’t been more money for Hazapour tbh. Looks a leading contender for 2nd place.
    He beat horses rated 108 and 112 on seasonal debut. Young Rascal the current 2nd fave had the benefit of a run when beating horses rated 103 and 104. One would assume Hazapour would come on for it as well being seasonal debut.

    Hazapour form boosted just now at the Curragh. :good:

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