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Saxon Warrior has won of Yielding, Soft, Good to Soft and Good.
Probably nobody is really going to want it heavy but when Kew Gardens and Delano Roosevelt met Nelson on Yielding ground, it was the Frankel colt who scored comfortably, with the other two looking quite slow, only staying on late to grab the 2nd and 3rd spots.
I’d agree that Roaring Lion will be doubtful on soft and Masar a big negative for me on soft.
Knight To Behold is another I’d wonder about lasting, having won his two races on good to firm. The other worry for him is continued awful form from the stable. Knight To Behold was their first winner in ages and they now haven’t had a winner since then. Right enough, some right no-hopers have been in the mix but they have simply been woeful.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The rain won’t hurt Rascal but I don’t fancy standing in the rain like at the Oaks last year.
Nelson was a bet for me ages ago as mentioned at 14/1 but he surely won’t win.
My main bet and main hope is he Rascal to show top class form and outstaying the favourite.
Bearing in mind its dry on Friday and sunny and warm Saturday the Derby ground may not be too bad.
Forecast is dry tomorrow, Around 18mm due Thursday and generally clear and warm from then on based on the two sites I’ve looked at.
Id be guessing at good/good to soft if all of that falls, Epsom drains well and the heat will help also as Mike says.although it drains well I would be very surprised if it will be good/g/s. We have had plenty of the wet stuff down here and plenty more (at least 7mm due Thursday)
I would either wait for first race or back horses who like to get their toe in
Good luck
Cooper said if it were dry from now until Derby day the best you could hope for would be good to soft as the temperature is unlikely to be much higher than low 20cs the rest of the week – but the forecast is saying another band of heavy rain is due Thursday morning.
I would expect it to be soft for the meeting but if it is dry Friday/Saturday and slowly starts to change from soft to good to soft it could mean it gets sticky/holding and more tiring to get through thus putting more emphasis on stamina.
Not sure those conditions will suit Roaring Lion but Young Rascal with his high knee action will probably enjoy it and as a big outsider if O’Brien lets him take his chance it will really suit Nelson.
Saxon Warrior has form on soft and had he not shown such natural speed and that turn of foot at Newmarket I wouldn’t have had any concern over him staying 12F on soft ground but my mind keeps coming back to that fact and that he may take more after his dam (who was a miler) than his sire.
Like you MOM I’m not at all worried about all this rain for the Rascal. If it’s generally soft he surely must go off second fav ahead of the Lion?
I’d go with that Charles. I can’t see Roaring Lion staying the trip in testing ground.
If Saxon doesn’t stay, we may well be on the winner. I’m quite heavily involved at 20/1 and 14/1 here to win but haven’t got a penny on him placing.
I’m thinking of going in again on the place market at a nice price. Having a think on that part..
I think it’ll be good to soft come Saturday afternoon. 20 degrees might not be 28 degrees but its still on the warm side for 2 days.
could well be another downpour tomorrow mike, no doubt Mr Cooper will have it down as G/S
I think we had a similar conversation before the Grand National Mike, and again I can’t see
it being any better than soft. I’m not sure that will suit my SAXON WARRIOR bet, which I took
yonks back at 33s, but I think it maybe brings NELSON, who I also took at 33s (albeit he’s 40’s
now) back into the picture as all his best work has been done when it’s testing. He’s not guaranteed
a run, but if it is very testing he won’t be anywhere near 40s. I think the 40s NRNB with Sky
is a no-brainer. I’m getting a bit excited about YOUNG RASCAL, I grabbed the last 20s 3 weeks back,
along with MOM, although I’ll not be as excited as Charles who’s sitting on whopping 66s. YR is
another who won’t mind the ground at all. I’ll happily sit on those 3
As I have already siad am on Hazapour and DXB but have added NELSON at 40/1 NRNB cos he will love the ground if he turns up to actually try to win and not be some sort of plot to slow the pace for SW !!
LOL She hasn’t picked one yet Moe. Will have to wait for Friday night for her magical picks!!
I’m going all out for Roaring Lion on Saturday I’ve loved him since I first saw him as a 2yo at Newmarket even with his quirks and now he seems to be maturing with every run. If he’s good enough he’ll handle the ground and the course. If he can get the rail position round Tattenham Corner it will help to keep him balanced and I can see him fighting out the finish with Saxon Warrior and Hazarpour…
Jac
Good luck with all your bets .Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
Jac
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