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Knight To Behold
Quickened mid-race and then at the end despite being keen (Lingfield trial). He has an engine alright and if they could get him into a rhythm at Epsom he could surprise here. I don’t think Dunlop is tilting at windmills and I think can knock on the door if all goes well.
Saxon drawn in 1.
The rascal drawn in 9.
Saxon touches 13/8 on the day here I reckon lads.
I can’t see past saxon warrior. To win the guineas as he did while clearly not match fit said he won it with something in hand. It’s odds on he will stay and if so he is much the best horse in the race. I can see a nijinsky type performance. Only doubt would be if it came up soft. The price is irrelevant an expect he will be 4-6 by race start as the lads will be piling in as the stable has shown so much confidence in the horse. Let’s hope he is a superstar.
This years Derby and Oaks has become a right minefield, especially with the current weather!
I have had a double on Justify to win the Preakness and Saxon Warrior to win the Derby but really have no idea what will happen.
If I were to have a bet today I would be having a punt on Dee Ex Bee each way at the prices. Yes, he clearly inst as good as some of these horses but at 33/1 I am willing to take the risk that he comes in the top 3.
He has won at Epsom previously and also on soft ground so hes my play each way at the price.
Good luck everyone.
Fascinating race. I’m on Hazapour at 16/1 and The Lion at 15/2, they’re currently going in opposite directions in the market due to the rain.
If SW does go out to 13/8 then he’s backable but no shorter than that now draw and ground have gone against him.
Am really sweet on Hazapour and he’s been the best backed horse all week 16’s – 8’s. Below is a quote from Dermot;
‘He’s a lovely horse to train. He is a stayer with speed and this has always been the plan. This horse has very similar characteristics to Harzand. He is very tough and is a very genuine colt. He is very adaptable ground-wise.’
As we all know, you need a stayer with speed to win The Derby…I think this fellow will go close.
My Derby ratings, hybrid of pedigree, speed and form ratings.
Some good years with these and some not so much.
When there is an clear top rated the figures tend to be elongated as they are calculated comparatively within each section and weighted towards pedigree slightly. Not meant to represent the difference in pounds between runners but top rated converted towards the BHA 0-140 scale for easier reference. Just a bit of fun for me to calculate.I have backed SW in the Guineas/Derby double so hopefully he prevails. An unusually clear leader, in most years 2 or 3 pts between top and 2nd rated.
Saxon Warrior 128
Masar 112
The Pentagon 105
Roaring Lion 84
Kni’ To Behold 84
Zabriskie 84
Young Rascal 77
Hazapour 77
Del’ Roosevelt 70
Sevenna Star 70
Kew Gardens 70
Dee Ex Bee 63good luck
Having also backed Oath to win the 1999 Derby from stall one , I would suggest that Ryan Moore follows Keiren Fallon’s lead and more or less replicates the path he took on Henry Cecil’s colt .
Saxon Warrior all day long for me .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Odds against is madness for me, if he goes 13/8 it’s the bet of the season.
Stall 1 is getting over-blown by miles.Andrew Cooper reported earlier Epsom have dodged all the rain today so far, fingers crossed this luck remains and we have nice GS ground come Saturday.
Soft ground would be ideal for Young Rascal, a middle distance/stayer.
Soft ground on its own wouldn’t worry me that much for Saxon Warrior. Stall 1 on its own wouldn’t worry me too much either. But Stall 1 on soft ground gives /Coolmore? It’s not that he doesn’t act on soft – it’s that stamina is likely to be tested and where a horse is drawn can sometimes make a difference.
There’s always the chance one that ran at a mile last time out won’t settle if seeing too much daylight, so SW will in all probability be held up. Stall 1 means he’s more likely to be towards the inside towards the back… A position making unlucky in running more likely… Unless of course… Team Ballydoyle set a fast pace in order to provide more gaps and also to favour hold up horses… However, unfortunately a fast pace also favours stayers at the trip and SW’s asset (at 1m4f) is his speed/turn of foot.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think the draw matters too much.
Not many horses with Saxon Warrior’s class and a Guineas win in the bag have come out of trap 1 over the years. Not many Guineas winners also landed the Racing Post Trophy the season before, Camelot is the only horse I can recall and he went on to win the Derby.
Saxon Warrior will surely be held up and surely the others from the stable can ensure he gets a clear passage from which to pounce, a bit like Yifter The Shifter at the Moscow Olympics.
I see a bit of anxiety regarding Saxon Warrior being fast enough to win a Guineas. For me, there is the possibility that he won a poor Guineas.
Coming into Newmarket there were voices regarding how good a race it was this season. Looking back now, was it a good renewal?
Tip Two Win is the obvious question mark. Did he really improve 10 lbs?
I reckon Masar ran well below his Craven form, and it was a combination of that and a better effort from Roaring Lion that closed the gap from the Craven. Roaring Lion then went on again in the Dante, probably reaching his true level for the first time this season.
Gustav Klimt showed in the Irish version that he’s no world beater and Expert Eye looks a bust for now.
Elarqam was rubbish in the Irish 2000 and there is a mystery because he was sound again the next morning and there was only a little bit of muck when they scoped him. Even before the Guineas there was speculation as to whether he wanted a bit further and the immediate talk after the Guineas was about the Dante. Even if we exclude all that, he had enough to prove coming into the race, having only won at group 3 level and in a yard with a drought at the top level.
Saxon Warrior went into the 2000 Guineas as the only Group 1 winner in the race and he has managed to win it despite conceding the run to some and having doubts about his speed. Perhaps the class horse in the race won by dint of beating an average bunch. Maybe he will improve a good bit from that and he comes into the Derby as the only Group 1 winner in the race again. Perhaps he’ll be better at the trip than he is at a mile.
There are always questions and most of the time we speculate on the answers. Here however, we know that Saxon Warrior is the CLASS in the race and that is the most important single factor in my opinion. On the potential negatives for him we have no real evidence that they exist. If we had seen hints it would be different but it’s only speculation really and I’d rather have proven class, especially when the others are dubious Group 1 quality.
I would expect Saxon Warrior to travel well within himself in this company and if Ryan is swinging along 2F out as I expect him to be, all the stamina in the world will be of little good when the unbeaten class horse gets the office. Odds against will be like finding money lying in the streets of Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Epsom missed the rain today, the going description already has the words good to soft in it. With 2 mainly dry days anticipated.
It might end up being good to soft on the day, but its likely to be hard work because of the racing before this youd think
Hopefully it stays dry anyway!
My lad was training with his team at Taatenham Rec this afternoon. No rain all day. A mile as the crow flies if that. Ground at worst was good to soft.
Derby goes off on good ground and SW takes it
The Racing Post were contradicting themselves. One article said it was likely an outsider might win the Oaks because of the bad ground, while another article said the drying ground made it unlikely the fillies would switch across the track.
Totally piss value on Hazapour and Young Rascal now.
I am still waiting on winning margin betting for Saxon Warrior. I reckon he’ll sail home.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well I’ve laid Saxon at odds on, and I’ve backed Hazapour at 16’s/14’s, and Delano at 16’s. Topped up Hazapour at 12’s & Delano at 14’s too.
I just have a sneaky feeling about these two, both will stay well & are going to improve for the step up in trip. Delano’s comments in running are littered with ‘stayed on strongly’ ‘never nearer’ etc, etc. Hazapour looks a typical Aga improver.
Even at evens, Saxon is a shocking price.
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