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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2020

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Viewing 17 posts - 120 through 136 (of 182 total)
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  • #1484081
    Avatar photoRunning Rein
    Participant
    • Total Posts 189

    If I were a rich man…I would try to buy Fiddlerontheroof.

    #1484109
    Avatar photoKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1332

    They think he’s their next Altior, i didn’t say he is the same as Altior. Shishkin has also ran over jumps 6 times if you include his P2P (the horse doesn’t know the difference). He’s speedy but he’ll stay aswell, a bit like Altior..

    The point with Altiors price is that Min was seen as unbeatable, Asterion isn’t held in anywhere near the same regard.

    #1484121
    Avatar photoVautour
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    • Total Posts 722

    Asterion cost big money after his point to point win so somebody out there holds him in high regard.

    #1484147
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3879

    That’s hardly a massive pointer for the Supreme though Vautour!

    On the other hand Kev, it’s surely quite a similar situation as last year with KD and Angels Breath?

    KD was hardly talked up as the next Faugheen, while Nicky continued to get giddy over AB and his “hurdling”…

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1484166
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6488

    KD was gonna run in the ballymore until the ground got very soft

    #1484198
    Avatar photoKevMc
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    • Total Posts 1332

    Aye I would agree to an extent Jack but KD had looked quicker than Asterion does to me.

    Shishkin is much more convincing as a horse than AB also, he was beat at Kempton pre-Cheltenham last year.

    I’m far from bullish on Shishkin but rubbishing the horse because he’s not quick enough is madness IMO. I also don’t rate that last Asterion run as highly as many do.

    #1484339
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3393

    Im not rubbishing shishkin atall kev, looks top class i just dont like him for this, he isnt quick enough, but this theory that stayers win the supreme is always lingering (personally i disagree with it) so if he were to win ittl be on the basis i was totally wrong and he is quick enough

    Breeding, recent win and to my eye he just looks like he wants a trip

    Asterions sectionals are pretty solid for a 2 miler and theres nothing wrong with having the opinion that LTO you dont rate the form, but at the end of the day, he has the best form coming into this bar abacadabras who has the standout best form, won a grade 1 with ease, the form has substance with horses winning a grade 2 and bolting up in a maiden the time after

    Taking nothing away from shishkin, just IMO he will be plugging on at the end but it will be too late by then.

    I dont give anything a remote chance of beating him at this point other than abacadabras but id be slightly worried about his lack of a run but his form with darvers star is solid

    It will be between the two irish runners for me

    #1484412
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 107

    All this Shiskin v Asterion Forlonge should be decided in a match bet.

    The smart money is on a combination tricast on Chantry House, Edwardstone and Fiddlerontheroof……..

    😉

    #1484431
    Avatar photoJAMIEDB9007
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    • Total Posts 340

    I have liked Captain Guinness for this based on his run against Andy Dusfresne. The race was not run to suit, a stop start sort of race and he ended in front way too soon. Still plugged on very gamely from a horse regarded very highly at the Elliott yard. Not quite Envoi Allen level but high enough to regard Captain Guinness’ run very good in a race not run to suit. A strongly run race, goes on soft ground, think he’s a good each way play as he’s with a very able jockey and trainer in good form.

    On a more sentiment kind of note, what price you think he goes off on the day? 50,000 guinness slurping racegoers on course (ok not all of them),but can see him being the bookies biggest loser on the race on the day. I’d say a few more pints of the black stuff would be consumed if he was to win!!

    #1484570
    Avatar photoMarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2925

    Chantry House could improve significantly for this test. Hoping he wins but this is a quality renewal and has the look of a race which could be run four times and won by four different horses

    #1484573
    Avatar photoGladiateur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4406

    Interesting stat I read in the Guardian yesterday, just for Shishkin supporters:

    “Horses who had their prep run for the Festival at Huntingdon are 0/128 during the past 17 years, the last winner being The Bushkeeper back in 2002. Of the 128, 17 were sent off at 10-1 or shorter and this is something to bear in mind for both Shishkin (Supreme Novice Hurdle) and Phoenix Way (Pertemps Final), both winners at the Cambridgeshire venue last time.”

    #1484575
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3879

    Yeah Gladiateur, i saw this too. Also heard a stat about the distance he’s run over being a negative.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1484579
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6488

    How many of those 128 were actually fancied (shorter than 5/1) would be interesting to know

    #1484581
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7177

    I think Shishkin could make the 3 but not win. Nicky Henderson has just the 1 Supreme win this century (Altior) and has had plenty of placers like Binocular, My Tent Or Yours, Sprinter Sacre, Darlan and Josses Hill to name a few.

    #1484608
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6488

    Iv been watching a few festival previews over the last few days and I have to say I’m very surprised by the lack of hype about asterion forlonge coming from people connected to the Mullins yard

    None of them are talking about him like hes a superstar and ruby even tipped shiskin

    This race just becomes more and more of a head scratcher

    I’m leaning towards taking a flyer on Edwardstone at this stage who hasnt settled in any of his race and should appreciate the bigger field and end to end gallop of a supreme

    #1484619
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7177

    Actually it depends on what side of the pond you are. The Irishmen in the previews love AF and saying
    Shishkin not beaten much.

    It’s funny, watching Don McLean(I think that’s his name) he always favoured the Irish horses when picking, no point him being there lol.

    I saw another one with a nearly full Irish panel with jockeys and they picked the Irish horses and saying “i dunno” or “not seen him” when asked about the English ones. Lol.

    #1484622
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6488

    Yes they are putting him up, but they are not hyping him as much as I was expecting was my point

    Generally irish pundits never put up English horses

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