2000 Guineas 2019

Stand side course with centre stalls Running Rein.

Kick On looks the value outsider to me. imo Has a better chance than the likes of Al Hilalee and Royal Marine and yet is twice their odds.

I have the two Coolmore horses as having a 33% (combined 2/1 chance) between them, Frenchy. With Magna Grecia as a fair 19% (basically midway between a fair 9/2 and 4/1) and Ten Sovereigns as a fair 14% (fair 6/1). If comparing those prices with bookmakers (adding a bookmaker’s mark up to those prices) would be the same as offering 7/2 Magna Grecia and 5/1 Ten Sovereigns.

Had Ryan been riding Magna Grecia it would’ve been 25% fair 3/1 Magna Grecia (a bookie’s 11/4) and 12.5% 7/1 (a bookie’s 6/1). ie Had Ryan been riding Magna I’d rate Magna’s chance double of Ten Sovereigns’ chance.

Interesting, thanks GT. I’ve done a couple of savers on the AOB horses just in case. I’m a big AOB fan actually but I just don’t have enough confidence in either of them this year, but I’ll kick myself if I don’t have a saver on. I read the forecast for the race is a strong pace, which horses are expected to go on from the list, aside Kick On and Royal Marine that should be ridden prominently, where is the expected early pace going to come from do we think, if indeed we are expecting early pace?

Kevin Prendagast is quite bullish! “I’m very happy with him. He couldn’t be better or fitter and I think whatever beats him will win.”

There is quite a lot of prominent runners, Frenchy; but I wouldn’t describe any horse as actually needing to lead… Most either dispute it or track pace and a lot of them are doubtful stayers. Prominent racers who are doubtful stayers often either don’t race as prominently – because they’re trying not to race as enthusiastically/settle better… Or, although racing prominently it is in their best interests to make it as slow a pace as possible in order to make it a test of speed when the sprint for home eventually comes. eg Shine So Bright, Urban Icon, Azano and possibly Madhmoon and even Advertise.

So the basic pace map may be a little misleading.

Will there be a sacrificial lamb? Surprised Coolmore haven’t left in a pacemaker tbh, if onlt for a fast innitial couple of furlongs to ensure their horses settle. Ten Sovereigns may need a good early pace to settle and Magna Grecia already proven at a mile. But why should any other owner help the Coolmore duo/favourites? Suppose Godolphin second string Al Hilalee definitely will need a good pace – bred to win a Derby. So maybe it will suit Godolphin too. Godolphin’s third string Dark Vision? Trouble is he is sometimes slowly away anyway, so hardly pacemaker material. Royal Marine could do the donkey work. They tried hold up tactics last time – didn’t work – but also didn’t have the aid of a hood that day and hoods can help enormously in settling horses. Hood might mean they’ll try it again, but suspect they’ll let him go and just hope he gets room this time. Same words applies to Azano. Only horse I can see that both seems best racing prominently and will be suited by a well run race is Kick On. Hopefully it was just rustiness that made him miss the kick on reapearance. Only able to get through to lead because nobody else wanted to. This is also a horse with more speed than people give him credit for. If allowed to get loose on the lead; with Gosden first and second strings absent hopefully the third string can do the bizz.

Well all three of mine across these 37 pages have made it there (remarkably). To save people from reading through again, I’ve got:
– Advertise 12/1 E/W
– Kick On 40/1 E/W
– Royal Marine 6/1

Good luck all

Good luck MoM :

Can’t believe Al Hilalee came back into play and I have 33/1 and not giving up on Set Piece to run a big race today.
Never gone for such big prices but the absence of To Darn Hot leaves this wide open.
On my way to HQ soon, hope we all find some winners