2000 Guineas 2019

I’m not sure Charlie Appleby’s 3year olds are that forward at the moment, not sure what’s going on there. According to the racing post CA stable tour, Al Hilalee was supposed to run at the Craven meeting and then step up to the Dante as a plan and Line of Duty was going to run in the 2000 Guineas as a trial for the Derby. That was in early April, so now no Line of Duty and Al Hilalee is running in the Guineas as a trial for the derby, so thats a change of plan and seems a bit fanciful coming in of an RPR of 101.

Be interesting to see how he goes and whether he has just been showing a lot of speed or whether it’s a bit of an afterthought because something happened to Line of Duty.

A horse with a previous race RPR of 101 would surely take in a trial though first plus his plan was craven meeting/Dante early April. It’s not a usual plan there going on and I’d be really surprised if he troubled the first 3. They clearly rate him though, so he’s one too watch after, plus you’re on at 33s, can’t complain!

Skardu has the profile to win, but that Craven form looks well suspect. The 2nd didn’t get a clear run, the 3rd looked like the winner until he faded probably because of fitness rather than stamina, the 4th pulled way too hard at the start and lost all chance and the 5th was upset in the stalls and surely he’s a lot better than that. 112 is only 1 better than the worst winning RRP in over 10 years and no Craven winner has finished in the first 2 of the Guineas in that time either. He might be worth a saver if he continues to drift a bit, but otherwise I’m not convinced at all. I also think he might struggle in a more strongly run 8F as well.

@ 25/1 though Mike, I assume you got on before the Craven, so definitely be happy with those odds!

I’m getting more confused about AOBs tactics. The Trophy stakes was run at a pretty fast pace actually, with the AOB front 2 going off way in front which suited Magna Grecia actually in the end, but that won’t suit Ten Sovereigns if it’s too quick, so what will they try and do?

Calyx is special.

Wow Calyx! Made my thoughts look stupid!! Haha. Could be in for a mouth watering Calyx v Ten Sovereigns Commonwealth Cup. OMG how good would that be!! The season started today I feel!!

Very intetesting article Jack and looks like Gosden did make the right decision for Calyx.
It seems that sectional timings and the like are a very good way to work out a race, however who apart from the experts has the time to do this and when they do the horse will no doubt go off favourite so the value has gone (sounding like Ginger here)

As far as the 2000 Guineas goes I’ll be backig my two horses on what I have seen and if they are progressing.
Who knows how much a horse like Set Piece will improve for his run behind Skardu and you can still get around 20/1 for him. Al Hilalee is another unknown quantity being unbeaten who knows what time he will turn in on the day.

My way of picking out horses is extremely hit and miss I know but when it comes good its a great feeling knowing that I didn’t follow any tipsters or hype from the betting sites just base selections on a horse being progressive, winning with plenty in hand and what type of ground they prefer. My one downfall is that apart from Gleneagles and Camelot I always want to take on Aiden O’Brien but this year if he looks good in the paddock I’m having a saver on Magna Grecia. as I think my two choices could be filling tbe places on Saturday if he puts his best hoof forward..best of luck Jack Jac

In the absence of Mohaather not mad at all Jack, he’s proven over the distance and should handle the uphill finish.
A strong pace should be set by Kick On and Shine So Bright who will hopefully take each other on and set it up nicely for a strong finisher off the pace.

Good article Jack. Does anyone have any sectional data on Ten Sovereigns that would help to take him out of the equation in a strongly run 2000 Guineas? If it’s strongly run surely he’s got no chance but some data to back that up would be nice!