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Changed my mind.
Last three years it’s been a heavy lump on two of the likely horses.
This year I am going in hard on On The Fringe and Salsify.
He travels so well and I actually thought he was older. Can see one of them winning and they have no Tammys hill or Oscar Barton. THey are the two best.
I t for what he’s done. He has however ran a good time figure. I would have wanted a better round of jumping, he’d need to be more fluent, he was messy.
A horse I have been waiting for goes tomorrow in the same race Brindisi Breeze took before his win. Fletchers Flyer should out class tomorrow and fully expect him to shorten. Was worried as he traded as high as 70-1 a few weeks ago, now I wish I had increased. He jumps to the side, I believe he went left last time, so hopefully that is sorted tomorrow. Interesting contender.
Topped up ew on the Monk.
I also managed to get half a point on Annie Power at 43-1.
I have been looking at both this and the mares race, Arguably Mullins has a good chance to nick the mares with the improving Morning Run.
He has little top notch fodder for the world hurdle. AP placed last year, If I was the owner I’d want another crack, especially as it looks just as open.
Heard it here first chaps.
Steeplechasing makes a good point.
It really has to be used lightly. If the horse was having the first run all season I’d be more concerned.
An example is that a few years ago I was worried about the stat in the champion hurdle for Rock on Ruby. However the best run of his life had come when lumping weight in a hurdle race in November fresh. So I was not concerned about the break.
You really have to take all contenders preferences into account.
Also, if you follow stats like this blind, you rule out a horse that last ran 31/12 but consider one on the 1/1. That just makes no sense.
The bonus for Faugheen is last year he improved from his December run. He went straight to the festival so if you are on him at least he has history that proves he should cope with the gap.
Nice post THM. I agree with that. Going to do the same. I am on WW already for this same reason. I am not a huge fan of KP and had taken him on with CW until last week. I’ll go in on DP too.
I am taken with Coneygree but have a concern about good ground. More of a hunch than anything.
DP is basically SDC reincarnated.
The more I look at this race the more I come back to the favourite. His second last time was smart. DB was never going away from him after the last. If SS is just fractionally improved for his, which he should be, he will go very close. No price but doubt it will change much so will wait until the day.
Two top speed figures over 100 is pretty solid claims for the bumper. Yet he is still 16s on betfair. i am chipping away.
Au Quart De tour, has not done as much and ts of lowly 21!!
I like Up for review ts of 109 and presenting offspring like better ground.
Bordini ts of 54 best in two runs. i would have wanted one to be better.
Like Moon racer he has to go close too.
I had lost hope on him as he traded over 33-1 a week ago. Had a small top up but hopefully that win cements his place at the festival now…..
I hope for Zamorston and the horse he goes for the RSA. I don’t believe in going GC first year chasing.
Echoes of Sprinter winning at Newbury before his arkle. Obviously not as taking but putting old hands to the sword. The RSA could be his for the taking.
I have to say, I would expect DC to be cut more for Dynaste withdrawal.
Still get 4/1 NRNB with Boyles
Nadgers brutal morning for me. Had CW in RSA and smashed into 11-2 Dynaste for this after he lost to MC.
Surely with only DC and CC in the way this has to be the target for Champagne Fever and Balder Success??
I’d rather take those two on over DB, SS and SDG.
It is quite rare for a Champion hurdler not to have a run after the turn of the year as a prep. It is surely a positive. Tune him.
Really looking forward to this race.