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RIP any ante-post bets on King’s Palace for Cheltenham. He was one of the finest jumpers of a hurdle as a novice I’ve ever seen. Unfortunately, he’s cursed with a stiff back by the look of him – can’t bend it properly and will leave his hind legs in too many at the Festival
Agreed Joe! He went into last years festival with much the same profile over hurdles and flopped.
Speaking as a Gloria Victis lover and Coneygree fan, comparisons between the horses are ludicrous.
Coneygree is a stronger stayer, better jumper (remember GV always jumped right) and older, wiser horse than Gloria Victis was when he tackled the Gold Cup. The only similarities are their novice status and far above average ability.
I hope we get some juice in the ground next March, otherwise the RSA/Gold Cup debates about Coneygree will be redundant.
Really bad looking value book for the RSA now with the first three as low as 3/1, 4/1, 4/1 in places.
Great stuff that one horse gets cut way in, his chances seemingly much greater now, yet those in behind, who logically have more on now, remain the same odds.
I think running Coneygree in the Gold Cup will be an error and I felt like putting my feet through the TV when Simon Holt started waxing on the hype saxophone seconds after the horse saw off a field of regressive and/or disappointing sorts whom there wasn’t a pfennig of cash for in the market.
It was the same story when the viagra pills kicked in after Mr Mole had come home after the two main rivals had fallen and Mr Holt was like a puppy at a trouser leg smothered in female pheromones and Pedigree Chum, such was the gushing hype about how good the horse could be.
A pain in the Mole if you ask me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Worse jumpers than Kings Palace have won round Cheltenham. He’s 3 from 3 this season and had only one iffy round.
Not the jumping that concerns me really, it’ll be staying the trip at the pace he and Coneygree are likely to set on a spring day. They went a good clip last year and most of those who finished strongly had been held up.
Having previously backed Don Poli to win any race, I’ve backed him straight up for the RSA this morning at 5/1. The prospect of Coneygree and Kings Palace going at it up front is very appealing as a Don Poli backer and the way he went away from Apache Stronghold really stood out as a top class performance. I don’t buy it that he’s an out and out stayer and feel he probably has more speed than he lets on, I think he and Apache quickened away from the opposition at Christmas and both horses have a lot of class. He gets three miles very well but I think it’s now unlikely he’ll go for the four miler, with Wounded Warrior looking a live candidate for the owners in that race. As well as backing Don Poli for the RSA, I’ve doubled him with Wounded Warrior for the NH Chase, 5/1 and 8/1. When punters and bookies realise that this is the way they are being aimed (at least I think and hope this is where they’re being aimed) the price on Wounded Warrior in particular will surely shorten, as Don Poli will be out of the way.
Nice post THM. I agree with that. Going to do the same. I am on WW already for this same reason. I am not a huge fan of KP and had taken him on with CW until last week. I’ll go in on DP too.
I am taken with Coneygree but have a concern about good ground. More of a hunch than anything.
DP is basically SDC reincarnated.
I dont buy into this ground worry…I think top, top horses will go on any ground and I dont see festival ground being any worry at all. Arguably, the best ground he’s raced on has been the last twice and he’s been brilliant…For me the only thing that prevents ‘Max’ from winning the RSA is if they go Gold Cup….
The issue over front running…being taken on and setting up for a hold up horse is a red herring for me as this fella wont be stopping!
It’s not a red herring. He might Denman it but there have been plenty more that have tried and just not got home.
That said, he’s an 8 yr old and i think he conrfirmed on Saturday that he can handle himself in a Grade 1 chase – Grade 2 in name but beat some top class horses and franked the Feltham form
However, although he’s a promising jockey, NDB is without a Cheltenham chase win in 18 attempts and considering he can boast 40-60% strike rates at other courses, that might be something to consider.
There is a huge question mark over the form of Saturday’s race won by Coneygree.
Coming into the race there was little confidence behind anything and question marks with half of the field.
Double Ross has been totally out of sorts this year and it was hardly surprising that he went off double carpet in a six horse race.
Harry Topper had been pulled up the previous twice and his heavy ground win from last year looked a distant memory. The trainer reported after the race that the ground was too fast and that he had finished sore, perhaps out for the rest of the season now.
Taquin Du Seuil was the Timeform selection for the race, a dodgy move with a horse pulled up early the time before. Their reasoning was that Jonjo was in better form now but there didn’t seem a lot of market support to suggest that Timeform had picked the one to be with. Taquin Du Seuil didn’t settle very well and had a couple of scrappy jumps. Jonjo has said that the horse definitely doesn’t stay 3 miles and the Gold Cup is off the agenda for him now. The Ryanair is his probable target according to the trainer.
With those three out of the way, we now focus on Unioniste. He’s a horse whose target is the Grand National and he had a phase of the race on Saturday where he looked like he would have struggled to close down Paula Radcliffe in the closing stages of the London Marathon. Unioniste’s previous race win doesn’t read that well and his previous run was 6th in the Hennessey.
That brings us to runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux, who was runner up in The Hennessey when an unconsidered 50/1 shot. He was well ahead of Unioniste, who plodded on at one pace that day. Some people are excited by the form because winner Many Clouds is a live contender for the Gold Cup now. I’m not so sure about Many Clouds and the presence of Merry King in third and Monbeg Dude in fourth reinforces that belief, as they are horses who have looked out and out stayers in the past. Favourite Djakadam didn’t fire in The Hennessey and I believe the ground and trip combination found him out that day. It was a race where 10 of the 19 runners were pulled up and I have a feeling the race shaped more like a National trial than one for the Gold Cup.
I am taking a cautionary stance with Coneygree because of what he actually beat on Saturday, time will tell if I have made a mistake. There is a bit too much hype concerning his Gold Cup prospects for me and you would suspect he was odds on for the RSA, the way his Gold Cup case has been put forward. We’ll see where he goes and how he gets on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s not a red herring. He might Denman it but there have been plenty more that have tried and just not got home.
That said, he’s an 8 yr old and i think he conrfirmed on Saturday that he can handle himself in a Grade 1 chase – Grade 2 in name but beat some top class horses and franked the Feltham form
However, although he’s a promising jockey, NDB is without a Cheltenham chase win in 18 attempts and considering he can boast 40-60% strike rates at other courses, that might be something to consider
.
No doubting the stats, however NDB is likely to gain mounts with winning chances at lesser courses, when it comes to Cheltenham the top jocks get the pick of the rides and the lower tier are left fighting for scraps, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Unless, you can argue that 50% of his 18 mounts went off first two in the betting ?
It’s not a red herring. He might Denman it but there have been plenty more that have tried and just not got home.
That said, he’s an 8 yr old and i think he conrfirmed on Saturday that he can handle himself in a Grade 1 chase – Grade 2 in name but beat some top class horses and franked the Feltham form
However, although he’s a promising jockey, NDB is without a Cheltenham chase win in 18 attempts and considering he can boast 40-60% strike rates at other courses, that might be something to consider
.
No doubting the stats, however NDB is likely to gain mounts with winning chances at lesser courses, when it comes to Cheltenham the top jocks get the pick of the rides and the lower tier are left fighting for scraps, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Unless, you can argue that 50% of his 18 mounts went off first two in the betting ?
Cheltenham
Maguire is 3 from 38 over fences
Jamie Moore is 0 from 33 over hurdles
Aidan Coleman is 3 from 88 over hurdles and 3 from 72 over fences.
Paddy Brennan is 1 from 70All have the pick of the best horses from pretty powerful stables and yet have poor records at Cheltenham which, in my opinion, simply can’t be attributed to riding in competitive races. Jamie Bargary already has a better record over those fences than Paddy Brennan with 2 wins from just 9 starts.
Horses for courses = Jockeys for courses
Also some of those with decent Cheltenham records ride one course better than the other.
It’s not a red herring. He might Denman it but there have been plenty more that have tried and just not got home.
That said, he’s an 8 yr old and i think he conrfirmed on Saturday that he can handle himself in a Grade 1 chase – Grade 2 in name but beat some top class horses and franked the Feltham form
However, although he’s a promising jockey, NDB is without a Cheltenham chase win in 18 attempts and considering he can boast 40-60% strike rates at other courses, that might be something to consider
.
No doubting the stats, however NDB is likely to gain mounts with winning chances at lesser courses, when it comes to Cheltenham the top jocks get the pick of the rides and the lower tier are left fighting for scraps, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Unless, you can argue that 50% of his 18 mounts went off first two in the betting ?
Cheltenham
Maguire is 3 from 38 over fences
Jamie Moore is 0 from 33 over hurdles
Aidan Coleman is 3 from 88 over hurdles and 3 from 72 over fences.
Paddy Brennan is 1 from 70All have the pick of the best horses from pretty powerful stables and yet have poor records at Cheltenham which, in my opinion, simply can’t be attributed to riding in competitive races. Jamie Bargary already has a better record over those fences than Paddy Brennan with 2 wins from just 9 starts.
Horses for courses = Jockeys for courses
Also some of those with decent Cheltenham records ride one course better than the other.
Some interesting numbers there.
Brennan is 1 from 70 when ?
He won a Gold Cup, A Ryanair and a World Hurdle. Non too shabby.
However, his ride on Stellar Notion last time was one of a jockey who left his brains at home or was trying to lower the handicap mark
It’s not a red herring. He might Denman it but there have been plenty more that have tried and just not got home.
How many 160+ rated horses (which Coneygree clearly is) have tried and failed?
The last horse to go from the front with anything like the rating of Coneygree was Denman in 2007 and he won by 10 lengths…
The last 10 years front runners other than Denman have yielded two 2nds, where the eventual winners were right up there…..Joe Lively (6th) clearly not good enough….Carruthers (4th) just short of top class….Citizen Vic (F) might have been in shake up…..a 150/1 outsider…..a 40/1 outsider….Join Together who ran a stinker, and Corrin Wood last year, a horse who has been shocking this season and folded like a pack of cards when asked a question…..was also a quick time last year in comparison to others, so clearly went way too quick…..
As I say though, absolutely none of those front runners….Denman apart were anywhere near as good as Coneygree is….so for me it’s a complete red herring…..if 5 of those had been 160 rated Novice chasers and ran out of gas and passed by held up horses then there would be substance to it….
It’s like those with ground concerns….
The last 10 runnings of the RSA have been ran on Gd ground 5 times, with the occasional gd/sft in places, and gd/sft 5 times…
He’s never ran poorly on quick ground as he hasn’t encountered it….his best two performances to date have been the last two, both ran on gd/sft…..there could even be an argument that on gd ground, just nice perfect racing ground that there’s every chance it will be at Cheltenham he could be even better?
I really, really hope they keep him with the Novices this time round because for me he is without doubt the one to beat.
Absolutely no worries with Nico riding either because he showed at Kempton that he can judge the pace of a race nicely….he was happy to sit off when taken on for the lead, then when left in the lead a fair way out came home just right, especially looking at the race time in comparison with the King George…
"Shack1":2fuunsko wrote:
No doubting the stats, however NDB is likely to gain mounts with winning chances at lesser courses, when it comes to Cheltenham the top jocks get the pick of the rides and the lower tier are left fighting for scraps, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Unless, you can argue that 50% of his 18 mounts went off first two in the betting ?
Cheltenham
Maguire is 3 from 38 over fences
Jamie Moore is 0 from 33 over hurdles
Aidan Coleman is 3 from 88 over hurdles and 3 from 72 over fences.
Paddy Brennan is 1 from 70All have the pick of the best horses from pretty powerful stables and yet have poor records at Cheltenham which, in my opinion, simply can’t be attributed to riding in competitive races. Jamie Bargary already has a better record over those fences than Paddy Brennan with 2 wins from just 9 starts.
Horses for courses = Jockeys for courses
Also some of those with decent Cheltenham records ride one course better than the other.
Some interesting numbers there.
Brennan is 1 from 70 when ?
He won a Gold Cup, A Ryanair and a World Hurdle. Non too shabby.
However, his ride on Stellar Notion last time was one of a jockey who left his brains at home or was trying to lower the handicap mark
Brennan’s one from 70 over those fences in the last five years so his Ryanair win doesn’t count.
The stats aren’t bomb proof but i use them when considering the chances of a horse running at Cheltenham. Watch the races, read the stats, form an opinion.
There were strong stats against Champagne Fever and Ballycasey last year, yet they were trained by Mullins and ridden by Walsh and people backed them for good reasons – but they lost and those stats remain very strong.Coneygree looks impressive but he does have to overcome the Feltham stats and ( possibly ) a jockey yet to win over those fences.
Andrew Tinkler went 5 years without winning over the Sandown fences and then bagged the Bet365 Gold Cup on Quentin Collonges. It remains his only win there in recent memory and i won’t back him at Sandown because of that, yet he rides for my favourite trainer and one of the two best in the country. He’s also 1 from 44 in all races at Cheltenham and 1 from 27 at Ascot but rides some good horses at both venues.
It’s not a red herring. He might Denman it but there have been plenty more that have tried and just not got home.
How many 160+ rated horses (which Coneygree clearly is) have tried and failed?
The last horse to go from the front with anything like the rating of Coneygree was Denman in 2007 and he won by 10 lengths…
The last 10 years front runners other than Denman have yielded two 2nds, where the eventual winners were right up there…..Joe Lively (6th) clearly not good enough….Carruthers (4th) just short of top class….Citizen Vic (F) might have been in shake up…..a 150/1 outsider…..a 40/1 outsider….Join Together who ran a stinker, and Corrin Wood last year, a horse who has been shocking this season and folded like a pack of cards when asked a question…..was also a quick time last year in comparison to others, so clearly went way too quick…..
As I say though, absolutely none of those front runners….Denman apart were anywhere near as good as Coneygree is….so for me it’s a complete red herring…..if 5 of those had been 160 rated Novice chasers and ran out of gas and passed by held up horses then there would be substance to it….
I wouldn’t be that keen on the ratings argument. Most novice chasers don’t get the chance to achieve high ratings as they’re kept to novice races and novice seem to be rated conservatively. It is only when they step into open company the following season they improve their rating, but that’s not to say they weren’t always that good as a novice.
Coneygree has taken on seasoned chasers and thus has had the opportunity to post a high rating. If Don Poli had run in the Lexus I’d have been backing him to win it, and he only has a rating of 152.
I also wouldn’t be convinced he’ll improve for better ground. The ground at the weekend was described as soft and although Kempton’s going was good-soft on St Stephens Day I wouldn’t bank on Christmas good-soft and March good-soft being one and the same thing. It’s like yesterday’s ground at Leopardstown, by all accounts it walked as good ground but was in reality it rode quite dead.
We know Don Poli goes on proper Festival good ground, and the way he picked up when joined by Apache Stronghold at Christmas really made me take notice. Very much the horse to beat here imo.
I think it’s safe to say Coneygree is definitely the one to beat if he lines up in this….absolutely no doubt about it whatsoever…..Will be interesting to see how Bryan Cooper rides if they all do line up? I mean, how much rope do you give a 166 rated chaser who only has one way of running and jumps fences like they’re hurdles!
I think it’s safe to say Coneygree is definitely the one to beat if he lines up in this….absolutely no doubt about it whatsoever…..Will be interesting to see how Bryan Cooper rides if they all do line up? I mean, how much rope do you give a 166 rated chaser who only has one way of running and jumps fences like they’re hurdles!
I imagine he’ll track him, and then go by him
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