Queen Mother Champion Chase

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2015 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 175 total)
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  • #26879
    kasparovkasparov
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    • Total Posts 662

    I am amazed you can still get 3/1 on Sprinter Sacre. He went off at 1/4 in 2013. Now, maybe Sire de Grugy can run him close so we will see SS at 1/2 and SG at 3/1 on the day. So SS at 3/1 AP is saying SS probably won’t turn up. But by all accounts he is back in fine fettle so probably will turn up. So on my reckoning we have a 60% chance of turning up and a 67% chance of winning if he turns up so that should be a 40% shot or 6/4 rather than 3/1.

    Also SG may be even better value. SG will probably go off at evens if SS doesn’t turn up. So we have probabilities for SG at 60% times 25% plus 40% times 50% or 40% overall. So also 6/4 rather than 4/1.

    #493048
    harvey2000
    Member
    • Total Posts 133

    If Sprinter Sacre turns up for the champion chase it will be like printing money.
    He won’t be 3/1 on the day if he does, but the gamble is whether or not he actually makes it there. At that price it has to be worth a speculative punt.
    Any ante post bet is a speculative punt they will make it to the big day, regardless if they have had problems in the past, so 3/1 about pretty much a certainty has to be an ante post play.

    #493057
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 773

    It’s a tricky one isn’t it Harvey!

    The way I see it is if he turns up he wins, will be very interesting to see how he does over the season (especially in the Tingle Creek). Will they have him near 100% and primed to go? Or will Nicky leave a lot to work with?

    It makes it difficult from an ante-post point of view, if he doesn’t win at Sandown then that could well be the final nail in the coffin and we’ll accept that he just isn’t as good as he was. Or it could be the team not wanting to over-do him in his first run back and be saving him for March.

    I’ll probably end up doing some small ante-post trebles with him in, but nothing more for the time being.

    #493065
    harvey2000
    Member
    • Total Posts 133

    It sure is, but as I have already said, "any" ante post bet come with risk, so for me he goes in any ante post permutation….he’s the Frankel of the jumps and 3/1 at any time of the year is just to big to resist.
    Good luck with your trebles!

    #496575
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5488

    Have just backed Champagne Fever at 14/1 for this. Sprinter Sacre misses the Tingle Creek and there must be doubts about whether we see him on a racecourse again. Likewise Sire De Grugy seems to be in a race against time to make the gig. Simonsig would probably step into the breach in the absence of Sprinter Sacre but he misses the Peterborough Chase and is a doubt for the King George now.

    After those three there’s not a whole lot left. I think Champagne Fever may be too free to be at his best over staying distances and if he gets beaten in the King George I think the Champion Chase may look a really attractive proposition to connections, more so than the Ryanair, for which they might have Boston Bob or Djakadam anyway.

    #496590
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5603

    Tommy i expect CF to get beat in KG but he bounce back in gold cup a race more suited for him.

    #496606
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5740

    I’ve taken 14s Vautour for a small bet. I know it would be most unusual for the yard to run him, but if the principals don’t turn up, and nothing comes out of the woodwork (as SDG did), I think they’d be severely tempted.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #496696
    JJMSportsJJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2036

    Potentially the worst Champion Chase on record.

    Have thrown a few shillings at Valdez at 33s

    #496699
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5740

    Potentially the worst Champion Chase on record.

    Have thrown a few shillings at Valdez at 33s

    I believe King has already announced Valdez is out for the season. If so, he should not, arguably, have been in that market – worth checking (though I suppose Binocular/Kicking King will always be cast up)

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #496907
    Gdc1
    Member
    • Total Posts 567

    With all the doubts over Sire de Grugy and SS how about a 40/1 shot of Western Warhorse?

    #496971
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5603

    Any thoughts on CUE CARD for this if big 2 not there it be a weak race so what he done so far he could easily make all in field like this.

    #497084
    Shack1Shack1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 513

    With all the doubts over Sire de Grugy and SS how about a 40/1 shot of Western Warhorse?

    Western Warhorse out for the season too.

    #497104
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5740

    Darren, I’d rather wait and see if Cue Card returns to proper form. I suspect there’s something ailing him – possible breathing/bleeding (only my opinion)

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #497107
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 423

    I don’t think Cue Card is quick enough anymore for two miles either, grand horse that he is.

    I reckon we might see one of Champagne Fever or Ballycasey go for this – depending on how badly it could cut up.

    We all know CF’s record over course and distance, but connections seem keen to step him up in trip. Ballycasey emptied pretty quickly in the RSA last year, having made a winning debut over 2m1f. With Djakadam looking a non stayer on Saturday, the Ricci’s have no gold cup horse, but three Ryanair types.

    I’m not confident enough to back anything yet,but will keep an eye on the markets.

    #497163
    JJMSportsJJMSports
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2036

    Ballycasey could be a price, will run in the Tingle Creek on Saturday.

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