Queen Mother Champion Chase

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2015 Queen Mother Champion Chase

This topic contains 174 replies, has 37 voices, and was last updated by Running Rein Running Rein 4 years, 5 months ago.

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  • #791993
    steeplechasing
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    Interesting theory RR. Would you apply even with ‘qualifiers’ who are normally good jumpers of a fence?

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #792073
    Running Rein
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    Interesting theory RR. Would you apply even with ‘qualifiers’ who are normally good jumpers of a fence?

    As per the ‘theory’ they appear to be good jumpers on soft ground.
    On fast ground…not so much.

    #799978
    Gingertipster
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    That is some theory RR. :scratch:

    But how do you distinguish between a Flat bred and a Jump bred? :unsure:
    Are Faugheen and Holywell Jump Bred or Flat Bred?

    value is everything
    #800883
    Running Rein
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    Ah, good question.
    Basically I would consider Dubawi as a flat stallion and Kings Theatre for instance a jumps stallion, despite both running in Group 1s on the flat. I guess it is the distance they ran at and the way they are marketed. Not wholly scientific but a rule of thumb.
    On the distaff side, I look at the mares race record (if she has one), if she ran on the flat particularly over specifically flat distances 6-12f, then her progency are flat bred, in my eyes. Sometimes the country of breeding is a pointer, for example (USA) mares almost certainly have no NH legacy. Dodging Bullets is by a miler out of an American bred 8-10f mare so not much doubt in his case.

    I don’t have access to a one of those databases you can question so it is admittedly a bit hand woven and calling it a theory may be a bit grand. Also, so few ‘flat-breds’ reach the heights that DB has over fences that it rarely is a big poser.
    Still, it is interesting to discuss these things and put forward your point of view and I will follow the ‘theory’ and next week will provide further evidence.
    Also, there are a couple of analytical approaches that can provide a quantitative measure for pedigree and I have used these in the past for other purposes. I like numbers and they were useful, although I think they had severe limitations when used for other purposes, not related to the above.

    #801237
    Running Rein
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    Sorry, I didn’t answer your specific question on Faugheen and Holywell

    On Faugheen he remains a hurdler, so it is a moot point for the moment, I certainly wouldn’t oppose hurdlers based on their pedigree alone. There are two many successful examples to try to make the case. The physical breeding required to jump fences doesn’t seem to be present (or anywhere near as strong) over hurdles, no matter the ground. Hadn’t thought of it before you mentioned him but might explain his jumping style and even connections decision to remain over hurdles this year. Although it is borderline whether he is a NH or flat bred horse.

    Holywell is more interesting as he has, as you hint, an interesting pedigree which certainly looks a fair bit flat bred, on the dams side anyway with a stouter sire. Not sure is the answer (see weak point in theory mention earlier).
    Two bits of key evidence from his runs over same C&D at Aintree…last April on good ground he did really well to beat Don Cossack, so if you consider him flat-bred that is a blow to the ‘theory’. However, this autumn again on decent ground he struggled with jumping in exactly the way you would expect a flat-bred horse to do when he fell early trying to keep up with a brisk pace behind Sam Winner in a high class chase.
    On balance I would oppose him in the highest grade based on that evidence but as to whether he would qualify as flat-bred at all on pedigree I wouldn’t be 100% certain.

    #801520
    Gingertipster
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    Have you considered this RR?

    If no hard definition of Flat and Jump bred then there won’t be any way of finding true statistics. Without numbers put in to percentages. ie To know whether the number of “flat bred” horses making top class chasers is low – you first need to know how many flat breds go chasing. I’d suggest the reason why so called “flat breds” don’t often make top class chasers is becauuse very few try jumping. Vastly outnumbered by so called “jump bred” animals. Most American (and some European) bred horses will go the All Weather route and not see a hurdle, let alone a fence.

    It is interesting you describe horses by Kings Theatre as jump bred and Dubawi as flat. It is generally felt a waste of time going jumping with horses that don’t (or unlikely to) stay at least 1m2f on the flat… And far fewer “flat bred” 10f horses will go jumping than “flat bred” 12f+ horses. But the latter are rarely thought of as “flat bred” anyway; because most “Jumping stallions” are just stamina flat horses that have not made the grade as flat stallions.

    Not many horses with Dodging Bullets’ breeding will try jumping and then that small number are reduced further because some will remain hurdling.

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    #802933
    steeplechasing
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    This is beginning to look like one of the trickiest betting challenges of the meeting. I suspect jumping will play a key part in winning it (obvious as that might sound, but you know what I mean). I might have a small EW on Special Tiara

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #805332

    homersimpson
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    I’m glad it’s just not me struggling, although I have now just about ruled out Dodging Bullets unless the ground is much softer than anticipated. Not because of the above theory. I’m not even sure if the ground matters for DB but I believe that SDG and SS will be better on a truer surface. CF is also in the equation due to his Cheltenham record and I still haven’t completely ruled out Mr Mole. Special Tiara could be a live outsider to pinch some EW. Will CF and ST take each other on up front :unsure:

    #805378
    Fran the man
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    Special Tiara will make the running,only way Ruby tries challenge him is if he’s still drunk from the night before,Special Tiara will go off at a ridiculous clip and should be let at it. Dodging bullets is the one for me, the pace’ll suit him nicely,last year he pulled early so didn’t finish strong but he seems a lot more relaxed and grown up this year, i think he’s a lot less questions to answer than the others(only question is over his form in spring), i’m loving Nicholls saying Mr Mole’s probably his better horse of the 2,might get me an e/w price after all. :yahoo:

    #805417
    steeplechasing
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    I like Mr Mole a lot, and have had a bet at 16s, but I don’t trust his jumping enough to get serious. DB is not always fluent. SDG can either fly over or belt one. Who knows what Sprinter will be like. CF’s jumping seems to be improving, but that fall he had would make me nervous

    I’ve a notion that if Alan King were to sit down and take a serious look again at the race, he might be tempted to send Balder Succes there. Everyone seems to have just assumed that it’s the longer trip that has brought the improvement in the horse, but who can say? I’ve had a bet at 90 just in case King comes to his senses :)

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #805420
    Fran the man
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    I’ve watched DB’s 2 latest runs again this morning and think his jumpings been good at worst and excellent at best,not anything i’d consider a mistake at all,every other runner i think makes more barring maybe Special Tiara who is a hell of a jumper but will need a perfectly judges ride to prevail as his stamina is minimal. Not long until we find out :yahoo:

    #805457
    BULA11
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    reliable horse Balder……..good for a place

    Bula11

    #805571
    steeplechasing
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    I’ve watched DB’s 2 latest runs again this morning and think his jumpings been good at worst and excellent at best,not anything i’d consider a mistake at all,every other runner i think makes more barring maybe Special Tiara who is a hell of a jumper but will need a perfectly judges ride to prevail as his stamina is minimal. Not long until we find out :yahoo:

    Have a look at a couple of his races on better ground

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #805656
    Gingertipster
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    DB’s or ST’s “better ground Joe?

    value is everything
    #805741
    Gingertipster
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    I’ve a notion that if Alan King were to sit down and take a serious look again at the race, he might be tempted to send Balder Succes there. Everyone seems to have just assumed that it’s the longer trip that has brought the improvement in the horse, but who can say? I’ve had a bet at 90 just in case King comes to his senses :)

    Balder Success was my first ante-post bet on this race, at the end of last season. Kingy thought BS his 2 miler until Uxizandre won early season at that trip at Cheltenham. Then, BS was sent over further and improved. True, you make a good point Joe, it isn’t a given the progress is about distance; travells well enough. May be both of Kingy’s will go for the intermediate distance. But after Uxizandre disappointed in the Game Spirit BS is now the only one of the stable companions remaining in the 2 miler. Was 79/1 yesterday evening, now more than halved on the machine. Did go in for BS in the Ryanair too – after Ascot, but that bet is NRNB so hope he goes for the Queen Mum. :unsure:

    value is everything
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