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Forget anything <b>Dodging Bullets</b> did before his comeback in November,that is the answer to assessing this seasons Champion Chase.His form alone this year makes him Fav in my book but if you watch his Ascot run he was so laid back throughout,jumped perfectly,looked physically stronger than ever before and was never faized when the mighty ‘Sprinter’ lobbed alongside him,when push came to shove my fellow left the mighty one toiling and will do again.
I have my own theory on Dodging Bullets and for what it is worth here it is…
Dodging Bullets is flat bred (we will see a lot of Frankie Dettori, his breeder, on TV on Wednesday) as he is by Dubawi out of a 8-10f mare. Frankie certainly did not have Cheltenham in mind when he put mum and dad together.
Many NH horses are flat bred and many do well as steeplechasers but almost always at a lower level. There are very few top class steeplechasers with pure flat breeding like Dodging Bullets. The main reason being (not the ground, I will come back to that) but that their competitors are bred to do one thing and that thing is to jump fences at high speed. Over generations this is what sets apart NH breeding…the bone confirmation, muscle and stamina attributes delivered by NH mares…. with speed often injected in by high class staying flat stallions.
At the top level flat-breds are just not bred to jump over big fences whilst retaining top speed. However, there are mitigating circumstances that improve the odds of talented flat-breds who go steeplechasing and the greatest of these is slow ground.
It may be counter intuitive but flat-bred steeplechasers (based on my research) actually do better on slow ground. The reason being, in my view, is that slow ground takes away the fast jumping, gallop maintaining speed of the NH steeplechasers. On slow ground every horse is slowed down, fencing is less important and the flat-bred steeplechasers can often use their superior top speed to out sprint the NH types in the straight.
Dodging Bullets profile, often described in the media as ‘not being as good in the spring’ is actually consistent with this trend in flat-breds. Many in the media correctly say he prefers slow ground but often misdiagnose this as his preference rather than the impact it has on his competitors which I believe is the real advantage slow ground confers.Due to the fact that not many horses who are bred to win over mile/middle distances on the flat make top steeplechasers there are not many examples but there are a few and to give some evidence of other similarly bred horses, with corresponding profiles… about 5 or 6 years ago Willie Mullins had a decent horse by Intikhab called Kempes.
A flat-bred miler sort he was a decent novice with soft ground chasing form and actually won the Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown in February on heavy going. He won that comfortably and many thought he would improve markedly when he got good ground (due to his flat breeding) in the Gold Cup. He started the Gold Cup in single figures at 9/1. Before anyone thinks this price was due to a weak renewal…this Gold Cup included Kauto Star, Denman and Long Run…so Kempes’s price reflected real confidence of his chances in the conditions.
He couldn’t keep up with the proper steeplechasers at the speed they were going on decent ground, made many mistakes and was pulled up at the top of the hill when miles behind.I fear Dodging Bullets will be found out in a similar manner in the QM, although the shorter distance will probably mean he will not be pulled up but I see him making mistakes and his chance being gone relatively early.
To summarise, my experience is that looking at flat bred horses that are freakish enough to compete seriously against NH breds in top class steeplechases they can do it sometimes in soft ground but rarely (if ever) on fast ground and their profile therefore is misinterpreted as they ‘don’t like the spring’ when in reality it is their competitors that are able to do what they are bred for…jump fast at high speed…that enjoy the advantage at this time of year.
Just a theory.
Interesting theory RR. Would you apply even with ‘qualifiers’ who are normally good jumpers of a fence?
Interesting theory RR. Would you apply even with ‘qualifiers’ who are normally good jumpers of a fence?
As per the ‘theory’ they appear to be good jumpers on soft ground.
On fast ground…not so much.That is some theory RR.
But how do you distinguish between a Flat bred and a Jump bred?
Are Faugheen and Holywell Jump Bred or Flat Bred?Value Is EverythingAh, good question.
Basically I would consider Dubawi as a flat stallion and Kings Theatre for instance a jumps stallion, despite both running in Group 1s on the flat. I guess it is the distance they ran at and the way they are marketed. Not wholly scientific but a rule of thumb.
On the distaff side, I look at the mares race record (if she has one), if she ran on the flat particularly over specifically flat distances 6-12f, then her progency are flat bred, in my eyes. Sometimes the country of breeding is a pointer, for example (USA) mares almost certainly have no NH legacy. Dodging Bullets is by a miler out of an American bred 8-10f mare so not much doubt in his case.I don’t have access to a one of those databases you can question so it is admittedly a bit hand woven and calling it a theory may be a bit grand. Also, so few ‘flat-breds’ reach the heights that DB has over fences that it rarely is a big poser.
Still, it is interesting to discuss these things and put forward your point of view and I will follow the ‘theory’ and next week will provide further evidence.
Also, there are a couple of analytical approaches that can provide a quantitative measure for pedigree and I have used these in the past for other purposes. I like numbers and they were useful, although I think they had severe limitations when used for other purposes, not related to the above.Sorry, I didn’t answer your specific question on Faugheen and Holywell
On Faugheen he remains a hurdler, so it is a moot point for the moment, I certainly wouldn’t oppose hurdlers based on their pedigree alone. There are two many successful examples to try to make the case. The physical breeding required to jump fences doesn’t seem to be present (or anywhere near as strong) over hurdles, no matter the ground. Hadn’t thought of it before you mentioned him but might explain his jumping style and even connections decision to remain over hurdles this year. Although it is borderline whether he is a NH or flat bred horse.
Holywell is more interesting as he has, as you hint, an interesting pedigree which certainly looks a fair bit flat bred, on the dams side anyway with a stouter sire. Not sure is the answer (see weak point in theory mention earlier).
Two bits of key evidence from his runs over same C&D at Aintree…last April on good ground he did really well to beat Don Cossack, so if you consider him flat-bred that is a blow to the ‘theory’. However, this autumn again on decent ground he struggled with jumping in exactly the way you would expect a flat-bred horse to do when he fell early trying to keep up with a brisk pace behind Sam Winner in a high class chase.
On balance I would oppose him in the highest grade based on that evidence but as to whether he would qualify as flat-bred at all on pedigree I wouldn’t be 100% certain.Have you considered this RR?
If no hard definition of Flat and Jump bred then there won’t be any way of finding true statistics. Without numbers put in to percentages. ie To know whether the number of “flat bred” horses making top class chasers is low – you first need to know how many flat breds go chasing. I’d suggest the reason why so called “flat breds” don’t often make top class chasers is becauuse very few try jumping. Vastly outnumbered by so called “jump bred” animals. Most American (and some European) bred horses will go the All Weather route and not see a hurdle, let alone a fence.
It is interesting you describe horses by Kings Theatre as jump bred and Dubawi as flat. It is generally felt a waste of time going jumping with horses that don’t (or unlikely to) stay at least 1m2f on the flat… And far fewer “flat bred” 10f horses will go jumping than “flat bred” 12f+ horses. But the latter are rarely thought of as “flat bred” anyway; because most “Jumping stallions” are just stamina flat horses that have not made the grade as flat stallions.
Not many horses with Dodging Bullets’ breeding will try jumping and then that small number are reduced further because some will remain hurdling.
Value Is EverythingThis is beginning to look like one of the trickiest betting challenges of the meeting. I suspect jumping will play a key part in winning it (obvious as that might sound, but you know what I mean). I might have a small EW on Special Tiara
I’m glad it’s just not me struggling, although I have now just about ruled out Dodging Bullets unless the ground is much softer than anticipated. Not because of the above theory. I’m not even sure if the ground matters for DB but I believe that SDG and SS will be better on a truer surface. CF is also in the equation due to his Cheltenham record and I still haven’t completely ruled out Mr Mole. Special Tiara could be a live outsider to pinch some EW. Will CF and ST take each other on up front
Special Tiara will make the running,only way Ruby tries challenge him is if he’s still drunk from the night before,Special Tiara will go off at a ridiculous clip and should be let at it. Dodging bullets is the one for me, the pace’ll suit him nicely,last year he pulled early so didn’t finish strong but he seems a lot more relaxed and grown up this year, i think he’s a lot less questions to answer than the others(only question is over his form in spring), i’m loving Nicholls saying Mr Mole’s probably his better horse of the 2,might get me an e/w price after all.
I like Mr Mole a lot, and have had a bet at 16s, but I don’t trust his jumping enough to get serious. DB is not always fluent. SDG can either fly over or belt one. Who knows what Sprinter will be like. CF’s jumping seems to be improving, but that fall he had would make me nervous
I’ve a notion that if Alan King were to sit down and take a serious look again at the race, he might be tempted to send Balder Succes there. Everyone seems to have just assumed that it’s the longer trip that has brought the improvement in the horse, but who can say? I’ve had a bet at 90 just in case King comes to his senses :)
I’ve watched DB’s 2 latest runs again this morning and think his jumpings been good at worst and excellent at best,not anything i’d consider a mistake at all,every other runner i think makes more barring maybe Special Tiara who is a hell of a jumper but will need a perfectly judges ride to prevail as his stamina is minimal. Not long until we find out
I’ve watched DB’s 2 latest runs again this morning and think his jumpings been good at worst and excellent at best,not anything i’d consider a mistake at all,every other runner i think makes more barring maybe Special Tiara who is a hell of a jumper but will need a perfectly judges ride to prevail as his stamina is minimal. Not long until we find out
Have a look at a couple of his races on better ground
I’ve a notion that if Alan King were to sit down and take a serious look again at the race, he might be tempted to send Balder Succes there. Everyone seems to have just assumed that it’s the longer trip that has brought the improvement in the horse, but who can say? I’ve had a bet at 90 just in case King comes to his senses
Balder Success was my first ante-post bet on this race, at the end of last season. Kingy thought BS his 2 miler until Uxizandre won early season at that trip at Cheltenham. Then, BS was sent over further and improved. True, you make a good point Joe, it isn’t a given the progress is about distance; travells well enough. May be both of Kingy’s will go for the intermediate distance. But after Uxizandre disappointed in the Game Spirit BS is now the only one of the stable companions remaining in the 2 miler. Was 79/1 yesterday evening, now more than halved on the machine. Did go in for BS in the Ryanair too – after Ascot, but that bet is NRNB so hope he goes for the Queen Mum.
Value Is Everything
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