- This topic has 174 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
(Form) "never works out", really Steve? Form often works out, why else do we study?
You have misquoted me and totally out of context to boot.
I said:-
"Of course handicaps are supposed to level the playing field and theoretically result in every horse holding the same chance but it never works out that way."
That is nothing whatsoever the same as (Form) "never works out"
Which is what you have quoted me as saying.
Please don’t attribute comments to me that I haven’t made.
I stand by MY statement. The perfect handicap, that sees all horses go off at the same price, and finish exactly as their ratings would suggest, has never been framed, to the best of my knowledge at least.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry Steve,
The general message I got from your posts (not just this one) about the Chepstow race seemed to suggest you are less inclined to believe form of handicaps when it comes to working out form to a grade 1 races. Which was the point I was trying to make.But you’re right, I should not have given my own meaning to your quote and made a tongue in cheek comment about it. Apologies.
Value Is EverythingI am going to have mixed feelings going in to the Champion Chase.
Sprinter Sacre is my favourite National Hunt racehorse of the last decade. For a year produced the best NH performances in my racing life time.
Sire De Grugy was my favourite racehorse of last year, tough, genuine, consistent and top quality.
However, my main bet is on Dodging Bullets.
DB was my bet of the meeting till yesterday; I though SDG galloped and jumped with great enthusiasm. The glorious uncertainty yet again. Shaping up like a vintage race now, having looked a bit threadbare a few months ago. Add SS, CF, the Mole and Hidden Cyclone as a live outsider and we have a real contest in prospect. Shame Mallowney isn’t running. On form he is by far the top 2-miler in ireland
Sorry Steve,
The general message I got from your posts (not just this one) about the Chepstow race seemed to suggest you are less inclined to believe form of handicaps when it comes to working out form to a grade 1 races. Which was the point I was trying to make.But you’re right, I should not have given my own meaning to your quote and made a tongue in cheek comment about it. Apologies.
Thanks for clearing that up Ginger. I don’t mind a bit off leeway when gathering opinion over several posts and interpreting an overall feeling about something but the statement that form just doesn’t work out was a bit sweeping to say the least.
Coming into the Bombay Cup the field looked a strange mix with a novice stepping up against more seasoned campaigners, a horse way out of the handicap and a horse who had finished well beaten the last twice, albeit when out of his depth when last of five behind Dodging Bullets.
When betting first opened there were a lot more entrants, including Melodic Rendezvous, who sat as second favourite in the betting. At that time Sire De Grugy was 11/8 favourite. I did not hear one person on this forum put forward Sire De Grugy as a good bet for the race at any stage. To me it was a bit worrying that the field sliced down to only 4 runners, with the original second favourite out of it, yet Sire De Grugy was now available at 6/4.
The stable delayed the decision to run by two days so confidence was a little lacking for anyone considering a bet but in the aftermath we have seen plenty of praise for the trainer and suddenly there seems an awful lot more interest in the horse.
Most handicaps will see a lot tighter spread of the weight, with a few pounds covering a lot of horses. I don’t have the stats for handicaps where one horse was so far ahead of the rest of the field in the weights. I suspect the sample is low and I was always taught as a scientist to be much more cautious about any data with a low number of examples.
I am sure it is much harder to be certain about the effects when a huge concession of weight is given to all the other horses in the race, than a case where they are closely matched with a few pounds here and there.
Maybe Sire De Grugy will go out there and retain his crown but I wouldn’t be so sure that it will be the same meeting horses of his own grade as it was giving a lot of weight to lesser animals.
As I say, I can’t prove any of it scientifically, it is just something I have come to believe in after more than 30 years of punting and observing situations, before applying my thinking when I see a scenario that reminds me of one that happened in the past.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I cannot see why there should be any picking over the bones of SDG’s Chepstow victory. IMO he did what connections and most punters wanted him to – prove his wellbeing and put in a clear round of jumping. He did that and more, powering clear up the straight and jumping with zest.
Pick holes in the opposition all you want, but I don’t think there’s many more animals out there that could have impressed more under the same conditions.All systems go now for the big one, should be an absolute belter if the current half dozen at the head of the market make it to post.
Of course handicaps are supposed to level the playing field and theoretically result in every horse holding the same chance but it never works out that way.
Despite having fallen last time when returning from an earlier injury, Sire De Grugy was a warm favourite today, somewhat at odds with the opinions expressed that he faced no easy task giving the weight away.
We have to ask why he was still warm favourite when the weights are supposed to negate any advantage?
Sire De Grugy was not coming into the race after a successful outing and his injury obviously begged the question as to whether he would ever be back to his best. The race was not on the original agenda and whether he ran or not was in doubt until Thursday of this week. Plenty of people had said they thought he was beaten anyway when falling behind winner Mr Mole the time before.
With all that negativity, why was Sire De Grugy a warm favourite today?
The first part is easily answered because one horse was a stone out of the handicap. Of the two left, Far West is a Novice who was stepping out of that company for the first time after some really small field runs. That left Grey Gold who was runner up in last year’s renewal but who had been beaten a combined 52 lengths on his last two starts, albeit when one of the races saw him a rank outsider behind Dodging Bullets, where he was last of five.
For me, it really boils down to how Grey Gold actually ran today. He’s ten years old now and the fact is that if the outsider Mister Grez had been able to carry a stone less today, as his actual handicap rating would make him due to do, he would have finished ahead of Grey Gold and closer to Sire De Grugy than the 40lbs gap in their respective marks would suggest.
It’s all about opinions and I have as much reason as anyone to wish Sire De Grugy well, because he’s my selection in a few competitions for Cheltenham but my heart says he has to do better than today to retain his crown.
Channel 4’s Jim McGrath opined that Sire De Grugy could get beat 3 lengths at today’s weights and still be a player for the Champion Chase, so I can only assume he put his betting boots on and marched to the nearest bookies as fast as any man sporting such a large erection can manage with his gait being hampered in such a manner
I love how Channel 4 immediately began spinning the platitude that you have to believe in the handicap system, when more often than not it’s being criticised.
SDG ran well on Saturday but there’s no way Grey Gold is a 152 horse, just as there’s no way that Tranquil Sea, at 13 and with one veterans chase win to his name in three years, should be in the National field off a mark of 142. Sometimes the handicapper is far too slow in lowering a horse’s rating.
SDG is currently rated 172, which is his career high mark. Dodging Bullets was on 165 at Ascot and is probably a few pounds higher now. Sprinter Sacre has at least 18 pounds on those two prior to his heart problems and on his first run in over a year, ran to a mark in the 160s. The RP gave him a 171.
I believe he’ll be a stone better in March and the other two just cannot compete at that level. He’ll have even more in his favour if it’s decent ground.I think people will see him in the pre parade ring, sun bouncing off his awesome physique and he’ll be 2-1 at best
Just watching the clarence house again and i’ve come to the conclusion the winner off this years champion chase is sprinter sacre.
I just feel SS lacked a bit off match practice on the day was a bit rusty and lost nothing in defeat to a very good horse in dodging bullets.I’ll explain why i think sprinter sacre will win the champion chase.
Firstly SS i feel travelled with all his usual zest i felt his jumping was pritty good on the whole i know he got in close to a few fences but if you watch the race back wen barry gives him a little squeeze into his fences he produced 2 excellent leaps.
I feel it was just the lack off racing that cost SS the race nothing else coming round the bend and going to 2 out he has dodging bullets cooked he just blows up a little between the last and the run in.But i believe 20% improvement will be enough.This run will off made SS stronger and therefore stronger in the finish.I believe this is all SS lacked his jumping his travelling was all there just wasn’t match fit.I honestly believe we could see SS back to his best come cheltenham.
Interesting that Nicholls said in today’s Guardian piece that DB likes nice soft ground.
Interesting that Nicholls said in today’s Guardian piece that DB likes nice soft ground.
No surprise given his record post January for the last couple of years. Tears it up over the winter months and then falls flat at the festivals. I’ve been a big fan and paid the price over the last couple of years, won’t get burnt this year!
I think both returning horses are worth taking on, DB can be struck through based on the above… Leaving the mercurial Champagne Fever pick up the pieces!
Impossible race to call – so many if buts and maybes, will certainly not be a big betting for me that’s for sure
Just watching the clarence house again and i’ve come to the conclusion the winner off this years champion chase is sprinter sacre.
I just feel SS lacked a bit off match practice on the day was a bit rusty and lost nothing in defeat to a very good horse in dodging bullets.I’ll explain why i think sprinter sacre will win the champion chase.
Firstly SS i feel travelled with all his usual zest i felt his jumping was pritty good on the whole i know he got in close to a few fences but if you watch the race back wen barry gives him a little squeeze into his fences he produced 2 excellent leaps.
I feel it was just the lack off racing that cost SS the race nothing else coming round the bend and going to 2 out he has dodging bullets cooked he just blows up a little between the last and the run in.But i believe 20% improvement will be enough.This run will off made SS stronger and therefore stronger in the finish.I believe this is all SS lacked his jumping his travelling was all there just wasn’t match fit.I honestly believe we could see SS back to his best come cheltenham.
I love SireDeGrugy and Dodging bullets has been good to me but I think i would be very surprised if Sprinter is not a short price on the day. The more I look at the comeback, the easier it is to see him coming on leaps and bounds. It was holding ground, he was conservatively handled and not really allowed to stride on due to fitness and it was run at a strong enough gallop. Its only because its Sprinter Sacre, that we apply a standard we dont set for others.
I think the handbrake will be taken off a good way from home in QM and I think this might not be a race at all.
In fact, the hardest thing he will have to overcome is the fact that I have backed him which in antepost terms usually means a non runner.
SHL
I love how Channel 4 immediately began spinning the platitude that you have to believe in the handicap system, when more often than not it’s being criticised.
SDG ran well on Saturday but there’s no way Grey Gold is a 152 horse, just as there’s no way that Tranquil Sea, at 13 and with one veterans chase win to his name in three years, should be in the National field off a mark of 142. Sometimes the handicapper is far too slow in lowering a horse’s rating.
SDG is currently rated 172, which is his career high mark. Dodging Bullets was on 165 at Ascot and is probably a few pounds higher now. Sprinter Sacre has at least 18 pounds on those two prior to his heart problems and on his first run in over a year, ran to a mark in the 160s. The RP gave him a 171.
I believe he’ll be a stone better in March and the other two just cannot compete at that level. He’ll have even more in his favour if it’s decent ground.I think people will see him in the pre parade ring, sun bouncing off his awesome physique and he’ll be 2-1 at best
As I had suggested, the only horse who went up in the ratings was the third Mister Grez. I actually felt he might have gone up a couple of pounds more than the one pound he was raised to a mark of 133. Unsurprisingly, Grey Gold went down by two pounds to a new mark of 150 and Sire De Grugy was unchanged on 172.
I can see why some believe Sire De Grugy might be back with a bang but I think he’ll face a different type of task at Cheltenham, where is will probably be much more furiously run and jumping will come under a greater examination that it did when stalking and passing vastly inferior animals, albeit giving plenty weight.
I’d love to see Sprinter Sacre come back to his best but I felt that Dodging Bullets ultimately held him with some degree in hand last time. The ex-champ was sympathetically handled that day but after his health issues you just wonder if they’ll ever "put the gun to his head" again.
A race with too many if’s and but’s to be strongly confident and it should be 3/1 and maybe a shade more for whatever actually shades favouritism on the day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t see anything outside of the top four in the betting being anywhere near good enough!
I’m ruling out Dodging Bullets on two disappointing efforts at previous festivals….for me he took the best form into last years Arkle and we were told he’d had a breathing op so there would be no excuse like the year before…and he ran way below par for me…yes, he’s looked great this season but I can’t see anything other than another below par festival on everything we know about the horse.
Champagne Fever has an excellent festival record, and has to be respected on that. For me though he wants further to show his best. Looking at Paddy Power pushing him out to 14/1 for the Ryanair it looks like they know where he’s heading? Ryanair looked the perfect race to me after a superb effort 1st time this season when looking to just fail to stay the King George trip. Travelled and jumped as well as I’ve ever seen him though. Also thought it wasn’t a foregone conclusion last time when falling at the last, many people thought Don Cossack would have gone on to win, I’m not so sure though, as we know his battling qualities. In terms of his chances at a Championship 2 mile event I just don’t see it….if he does go for this it’s got to be the worst planned preparation ever for a horse running in this race and one that will cost him dearly for me.
So for me that leaves it as a match between the top 2 in the betting and one I just favour Sprinter Sacre in. I was impressed by SDG last time and no one can knock what he did last year, that was without the proper champ around though. I saw enough in Sprinter Sacre’s return to suggest he’s still got a fair few lbs in hand of these and can only see him coming on for that run and improving again.
Sprinter to be King again for me!
I’m ruling out Dodging Bullets on two disappointing efforts at previous festivals….for me he took the best form into last years Arkle and we were told he’d had a breathing op so there would be no excuse like the year before…and he ran way below par for me…
I’ll throw away my 40/1 vouchers now then Zamorston.I always rated you as a decent judge!
No, no, no lol…
That will probably end up being a winner now knowing my luck!
I was telling every man and his dog last year….was on decent at 14’s and 16’s for Arkle. Many were telling me he’s just not the same come festival time (going on the previous festival), but I argued the breathing op would have ironed that out. Turned out a nightmare race for me as I was on Champagne Fever to win and DB each way!
Even writing him off on previous festival form, he has looked good this year and wouldn’t have him out of the first three….Just have a sneaky feeling SS could bounce right back to his best…there is a little nagging doubt though that if things aint going great Barry could well call it a day on him early…
Forget anything Dodging Bullets did before his comeback in November,that is the answer to assessing this seasons Champion Chase.His form alone this year makes him Fav in my book but if you watch his Ascot run he was so laid back throughout,jumped perfectly,looked physically stronger than ever before and was never faized when the mighty ‘Sprinter’ lobbed alongside him,when push came to shove my fellow left the mighty one toiling and will do again.
Can’t see anything outside of the top four in the betting being anywhere near good enough!
I’m ruling out Dodging Bullets on two disappointing efforts at previous festivals….for me he took the best form into last years Arkle and we were told he’d had a breathing op so there would be no excuse like the year before…and he ran way below par for me…yes, he’s looked great this season but I can’t see anything other than another below par festival on everything we know about the horse.
Champagne Fever has an excellent festival record, and has to be respected on that. For me though he wants further to show his best. Looking at Paddy Power pushing him out to 14/1 for the Ryanair it looks like they know where he’s heading? Ryanair looked the perfect race to me after a superb effort 1st time this season when looking to just fail to stay the King George trip. Travelled and jumped as well as I’ve ever seen him though. Also thought it wasn’t a foregone conclusion last time when falling at the last, many people thought Don Cossack would have gone on to win, I’m not so sure though, as we know his battling qualities. In terms of his chances at a Championship 2 mile event I just don’t see it….if he does go for this it’s got to be the worst planned preparation ever for a horse running in this race and one that will cost him dearly for me.
So for me that leaves it as a match between the top 2 in the betting and one I just favour Sprinter Sacre in. I was impressed by SDG last time and no one can knock what he did last year, that was without the proper champ around though. I saw enough in Sprinter Sacre’s return to suggest he’s still got a fair few lbs in hand of these and can only see him coming on for that run and improving again.
Sprinter to be King again for me!
Exactly my thoughts but the odds aren’t there. I will have a point on the day now but out of interest more than anything.
Is anyone concerned that it might not be just a guessing game between Dodging Bullets confirming form, or Sprinter Sacre reversing it at Cheltenham. What if neither of them are good enough?
Twinlight went into the Clarence House fancied by some to be a value alternative after a 6 lb handicap hike for a win over Hidden Cyclone, left him on a mark of 163.
Twinlight has run twice since and disappointed on both occasions. It is all very well to say he’s not a consistent sort but he’s been beaten three times in a row now and who’s to say if he was on a going day in The Clarence House?
Twinlight’s latest run saw him beaten 20 lengths by Mallowney, a horse he had beaten by 16 lengths when he registered his win that saw his handicap mark raised. In a previous meeting where Felix Yonger won, Mallowney finished a close second and Twinlight was pulled up.
Based on that it looks quite clear Mallowney had an off day when Twinlight won his Paddy Power at 16/1 in a race where Uxizandre and Ballycasey both ran abysmally as 1st and 2nd favourites. Both Ballycasey and Uxizandre went on to run stinkers next time, behind Balder Succes and Mr Mole, making Twinlight’s win look more ropey the further you look into it. Twinlight has gone down the ratings by a pound and then two pounds the last twice but I think that’s a bit generous leaving him rated there, particularly after his latest tanking.
Somersby hasn’t run since but he’s eleven now and didn’t jump that well behind Dodging Bullets and Sprinter Sacre after forcing the pace for much of the race, he tired quite markedly letting Twinlight finish 3rd behind the big two.
Fifth horse Grey Gold has run since, behind Sire De Grugy, where he was considered one of the two dangers in receipt of plenty of weight. He was readily brushed aside by the reigning champion and the handicapper decided to drop his rating by two pounds to 150.
I think if you look at the overall form and ask what the two leading candidates beat in The Clarence House it might not actually be that much and even allowing for improvement from both, which might not be guaranteed, there is reason to think it’s more than just a question about which of the two fancied one’s comes out on top next time around.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.