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Not for the first time, I’m struck by the different views of experienced folks on here like Steve and Charles. I thought SDG was done for when coming down at Newbury. He looked either very tired or sore and had jumped just 3 fences cleanly.
I don’t believe ring-rust does that to an experienced Grade 1 horse, as the trainer has claimed. You don’t suddenly become a poor jumper after a few months off. I suspect he will never get back near top form.
I guess we will see this coming Saturday as long as it’s not a bog. Only reason I can see for him having an entry is to get confidence back into the horse for the big one in March.
He was my banker of the festival last year. At the moment he is not even in the equation for this year’s renewal.
As I said, I thought Sire De Grugy would have won had he stayed up last time. He was not being asked to go win the race when he made his bad mistake and even after that I thought he might still get competitive.
The problem I have had is with the mixed messages coming out of the stable and the delays in actually committing him to this race today.
I read someone who claimed Sire De Grugy was well held from a fair way out by Mr Mole last time and was only ever going to be second but I disagree totally that that was the case.
I thought his jump at the first fence was a bit tentative today but he warmed to his task well and although I would have liked to have seen him slightly more aggressively ridden, he did put in a couple of mighty leaps before winning in good style.
Jim McGrath was quick to point out that you have to believe in the handicap system and rate Sire De Grugy right back to his best but it was only a four horse race where one of the main rivals made a bad error early and never got into it, running a stinker really.
Mister Grez is only rated 132 but had to run off a mark of 146 due to being a stone out of the handicap. He’s a horse rated a full 40lbs below Sire De Grugy but he’s been beaten only nine lengths.
The form hinges on Grey Gold, who was last of five behind Dodging Bullets off levels when a rank outsider last time. Sprinter Sacre was runner up that day so these are the key Champion Chase contenders tied in by today’s runner up.
Sire De Grugy gave Grey Gold 20lbs and a seven length beating, compared to Dodging Bullets at levels giving Grey Gold a 24 length beating. A literal reading puts Dodging Bullets seventeen lengths up on Sire De Grugy had Grey Gold been off level weights with today’s winner but the concession of 20 lbs obviously begs the question of how far Sire De Grugy would have won today had Grey Gold carried the same weight as him.
Dodging Bullets was probably harder pressed in beating off Sprinter Sacre than Sire De Grugy was in winning today, but offsetting that is that he is a younger improving horse. A big question is how much Sprinter Sacre can come forward for his re-appearance and it looks like being a fascinating race that won’t be that easy to call either way with absolute confidence.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Happy to have taken the 6’s offered after Newbury now the best price available for a repeat from SDG is 4/1. That was a spectacular round of jumping. As I said 3 weeks ago, Gary Moore’s charge is the most likely Champion Chaser.
I can see him going off favourite.
Hmm, I posted on twitter after the race that I did not think that was the old SDG. A handful of decent judges bit back pretty quickly (not least, Paul Kealy) who thought I was miles out. Most on here seem to have been well impressed, but having watched the race again twice, I think that old spark is missing.
Of course he threw some fine leaps, but he caught the top of a few with his rear legs (he’s never been the most accurate of jumpers). I got the impression through the race that he wasn’t enjoying himself in the way he was last year. Yes, he won well, but the old sparkle wasn’t there, to my eye. I thought he looked pretty tired on the run-in – which I suppose he’s entitled to be.
I thought I should allow for the ground, to be fair, then I looked back at his win in heavy ground at Ascot last season. That wasn’t a handicap of course, but he travelled with zest, ears pricked, much of the time and sauntered away from the second last under hands and heels riding. That was not the character we saw today. You could argue the form was as good on paper as the Ascot run, perhaps better, but that old vim was not there, for me, at least.
I backed him for the QM at the start of the season, so I’d like to be going to the festival with a different opinion. But I don’t think he’ll get back to the horse he was in that wonderful season he had.
Hmm, I posted on twitter after the race that I did not think that was the old SDG. A handful of decent judges bit back pretty quickly (not least, Paul Kealy) who thought I was miles out.
I agree Joe,fine big stamp of a horse that ‘Sire de Grugy’ is I fear ‘Sprinter Sacre’ more.Both have tarnished records and both have been Champions and deserved ones at that but neither has the profile of a horse gunning to be champion this season so if Dodging Bullets gets there he wins.
Of course handicaps are supposed to level the playing field and theoretically result in every horse holding the same chance but it never works out that way.
Despite having fallen last time when returning from an earlier injury, Sire De Grugy was a warm favourite today, somewhat at odds with the opinions expressed that he faced no easy task giving the weight away.
We have to ask why he was still warm favourite when the weights are supposed to negate any advantage?
Sire De Grugy was not coming into the race after a successful outing and his injury obviously begged the question as to whether he would ever be back to his best. The race was not on the original agenda and whether he ran or not was in doubt until Thursday of this week. Plenty of people had said they thought he was beaten anyway when falling behind winner Mr Mole the time before.
With all that negativity, why was Sire De Grugy a warm favourite today?
The first part is easily answered because one horse was a stone out of the handicap. Of the two left, Far West is a Novice who was stepping out of that company for the first time after some really small field runs. That left Grey Gold who was runner up in last year’s renewal but who had been beaten a combined 52 lengths on his last two starts, albeit when one of the races saw him a rank outsider behind Dodging Bullets, where he was last of five.
For me, it really boils down to how Grey Gold actually ran today. He’s ten years old now and the fact is that if the outsider Mister Grez had been able to carry a stone less today, as his actual handicap rating would make him due to do, he would have finished ahead of Grey Gold and closer to Sire De Grugy than the 40lbs gap in their respective marks would suggest.
It’s all about opinions and I have as much reason as anyone to wish Sire De Grugy well, because he’s my selection in a few competitions for Cheltenham but my heart says he has to do better than today to retain his crown.
Channel 4’s Jim McGrath opined that Sire De Grugy could get beat 3 lengths at today’s weights and still be a player for the Champion Chase, so I can only assume he put his betting boots on and marched to the nearest bookies as fast as any man sporting such a large erection can manage with his gait being hampered in such a manner
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Channel 4’s Jim McGrath opined that Sire De Grugy could get beat 3 lengths at today’s weights and still be a player for the Champion Chase, so I can only assume he put his betting boots on and marched to the nearest bookies as fast as any man sporting such a large erection can manage with his gait being hampered in such a manner
5/4 was Xmas Steve about a Champion chaser built to carry weight and a field of only 3 No-hopers to beat.As for Jimbobs erection?? I can only assume he caught a glimpse of the Jockeys through a changing room door left ajar.
Channel 4’s Jim McGrath opined that Sire De Grugy could get beat 3 lengths at today’s weights and still be a player for the Champion Chase, so I can only assume he put his betting boots on and marched to the nearest bookies as fast as any man sporting such a large erection can manage with his gait being hampered in such a manner
5/4 was Xmas Steve about a Champion chaser built to carry weight and a field of only 3 No-hopers to beat.As for Jimbobs erection?? I can only assume he caught a glimpse of the Jockeys through a changing room door left ajar.
Sadly for me, I thought he was a good thing last time he ran and he went flat on his bosoms. Decided to leave him alone this time and opined he’d probably win easily without the burden of my money.
Gary Moore really needs to plead with me to make sure I don’t back Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham. The same thing happened when Richard Hannon was training for The Queen and his first few runners all won for Her Majesty. I put a stop to that carry on with the "Poisoned Pound" on his next runner for Brenda and it duly flopped, stopping the sequence in its tracks.
Steve Caution, stopping more horses than the Needle Man since 1984.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Firstly , let me say that I am a Sire De Grugy fan ; I backed him religiously last season , including his seasonal debut loss at Cheltenham .
His first run after his injury was less than impressive , even with mitigating circumstances taken into account.
Yesterday , I expected him to beat that field , and he did . Had he not done so , Gary Moore would not be sending him to Cheltenham to defend his Champion Chase title.
However , although Sire De Grugy won , he did not impress . I thought it was a rather workmanlike performance where his class saw him home against inferior opponents. The zest and exuberance of last season just wasn’t there for me. Reluctantly, I will be passing him over in favour of Champagne Fever in this season’s Champion Chase renewal.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Of course handicaps are supposed to level the playing field and theoretically result in every horse holding the same chance but it never works out that way.
Despite having fallen last time when returning from an earlier injury, Sire De Grugy was a warm favourite today, somewhat at odds with the opinions expressed that he faced no easy task giving the weight away.
We have to ask why he was still warm favourite when the weights are supposed to negate any advantage?
Sire De Grugy was not coming into the race after a successful outing and his injury obviously begged the question as to whether he would ever be back to his best. The race was not on the original agenda and whether he ran or not was in doubt until Thursday of this week. Plenty of people had said they thought he was beaten anyway when falling behind winner Mr Mole the time before.
With all that negativity, why was Sire De Grugy a warm favourite today?
The first part is easily answered because one horse was a stone out of the handicap. Of the two left, Far West is a Novice who was stepping out of that company for the first time after some really small field runs. That left Grey Gold who was runner up in last year’s renewal but who had been beaten a combined 52 lengths on his last two starts, albeit when one of the races saw him a rank outsider behind Dodging Bullets, where he was last of five.
For me, it really boils down to how Grey Gold actually ran today. He’s ten years old now and the fact is that if the outsider Mister Grez had been able to carry a stone less today, as his actual handicap rating would make him due to do, he would have finished ahead of Grey Gold and closer to Sire De Grugy than the 40lbs gap in their respective marks would suggest.
It’s all about opinions and I have as much reason as anyone to wish Sire De Grugy well, because he’s my selection in a few competitions for Cheltenham but my heart says he has to do better than today to retain his crown.
Channel 4’s Jim McGrath opined that Sire De Grugy could get beat 3 lengths at today’s weights and still be a player for the Champion Chase, so I can only assume he put his betting boots on and marched to the nearest bookies as fast as any man sporting such a large erection can manage with his gait being hampered in such a manner
(Form) “never works out”, really Steve? Form often works out, why else do we study?
Sire De Grugy was not top rated in Timeform yesterday. However, the top rated Grey Gold had run disappointingly last time (and time before), albeit essentially outclassed in a Grade 1 and that day had different tactics employed than usual. So Grey Gold was if anything less likely to run to form than Sire De Grugy. Far West had run well last time out, but on Timeform master ratings had a bit to find if the other two ran to form.
SDG was such a short price because punters as a whole are …. (fill in your own adjective); vast majority want to back horses they know plenty about and have a high opinion of. He was “horse of the year in 2014”, what do you expect? If I’d worked out a fair book on the race I’d have had Sire De Grugy favourite, but not as short as he was. Even so, you say SDG was a “warm favourite”, yes, but he was odds-against (5/4). So the market’s opinion was he’d probably lose.
Yes, “Channel 4’s Jim McGrath opined that Sire De Grugy could get beat 3 lengths at today’s weights and still be a player for the Champion Chase”. Meaning, if Grey Gold ran to his best (or Far West improved a little) and beat Sire De Grugy 3 lengths he would not need to find much (if anything) to be right back to his best at Cheltenham (“still be a player”). The “could” in the sentence is all important. Indeed, had both Grey Gold and Far West been well below form – then SDG could have won as he pleased and still need to find plenty at Cheltenham.
It’s beginning to look obvious that those who under-estimated the task Sire De Grugy faced beforehand do not have as high an opinion of the performance afterwards – as those that did realise what he was up against.
Value Is EverythingHowever , although Sire De Grugy won , he did not impress . I thought it was a rather workmanlike performance where his class saw him home against inferior opponents. The zest and exuberance of last season just wasn’t there for me. Reluctantly, I will be passing him over in favour of Champagne Fever in this season’s Champion Chase renewal.
What race were you watching H? Did you see how SDG took two out?
Value Is EverythingI am going to have mixed feelings going in to the Champion Chase.
Sprinter Sacre is my favourite National Hunt racehorse of the last decade. For a year produced the best NH performances in my racing life time.
Sire De Grugy was my favourite racehorse of last year, tough, genuine, consistent and top quality.
However, my main bet is on Dodging Bullets.
Value Is EverythingWhat race were you watching H? Did you see how SDG took two out?
Funnily enough Ginge , I did , you may be shocked to know , having watched the entire race . I must say that your race evaluating and analyses has improved greatly during the past few years – I’ve been quite impressed ; however, if only you had watched the same race as I did, then it wouldn’t have left me casting even the slightest doubt on your new found expertise . Maybe there remains a slight chink in your armour – on that score – after all .
Anyhow, chin , chin old boy – your posts are (mostly ) always a fascinating read , albeit that I do not always agree with what you have say.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
However, my main bet is on Dodging Bullets.
Did I say you could back another one of mine?? Did I?
And what about Champagne Fever? It looks like the market has spoken and he will run in the QMCC. He has a similar ‘profile’ to SDG in having a fall followed by an easy win.
If I owned him I would run him in the Ryanair though. That looks like his optimum trip and the opposition is weaker in my view.
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