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Tricky ante-post race to work out due to not knowing which horses will be sent here, you’d think Cue Card will go the Gold Cup route as was expected last term before his injury, but will Dynaste do the same or will he return to defend his crown?
At the moment I’d choose one of the younger horses in Taquin De Seuil, think the Ryanair will be a perfect race for him especially considering the good form previous Jewson-placed horses have in this race.
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Didn’t even consider Simonsig when thinking about the race, completely forgot about him! So Henderson reckons this will be his intended target?
The King George is the first major target for the season, but not heard anything other than many people don’t think he will stay the gold cup trip, so could possibly be routed to the Ryanair.
In recent years, Nicky Henderson has had a very patchy record when bringing horses back from a year off, or even minor mid-season injuries. A setback often triggers a massive permanent loss of ability with his animals, which is why he is an inferior handler to Paul Nicholls imo.
For examples, see Punchestowns, Riverside Theatre, Grandouet, The Market Man, Punjabi, Jack The Giant, Blue Shark, Calling Brave, Burton Port, Petit Robin, Finian’s Rainbow etc etc etc.
Being bullish and saying one of his horses will ‘romp’ anything after an enforced break is foolhardy. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but you need a run to prove their wellbeing first.
As always, this looks a tricky betting race at this very early stage of the season.
A bit of a dark horse worth keeping an eye on imo is Djakadam. It was probably too far from home to know how things would have panned out when he departed the JLT in March, but he looked to be travelling very well at the time. Still just a 5yo, he’s open to plenty of improvement and at 33/1 looks the best value at the moment.
I expect to see Simonsig romping to victory in this.
Oh my sainted trousers, Simonsig wins this on the snaff!
I’ve taken a leaf out of The Ante Post King and backed Simonsig for the King George every week for the past two months. The grey aeroplane is back!
Have you guys gone mad? Simonsig looks like an adventure in mugpunterland as things stand.
You’re lumping on a horse who has barely raised a gallop in a year, who runs for a trainer with an appalling recent record of bringing horses back after injuries.
That negative is added to the worries that Simonsig looked very very keen over
two
miles when just seen, has a reckless style of jumping fences and doesn’t possess the stoutest of pedigrees.
Very few horses ‘romp’ the King George ‘on the snaff’. It’s usually a deceptively gruelling test, where even strong stayers finish pretty legless. I’m not saying he can’t come back or even land these races, but I’d want pretty chunky double figures on him right now.
In recent years, Nicky Henderson has had a very patchy record when bringing horses back from a year off, or even minor mid-season injuries. A setback often triggers a massive permanent loss of ability with his animals, which is why he is an inferior handler to Paul Nicholls imo.
For examples, see Punchestowns, Riverside Theatre, Grandouet, The Market Man, Punjabi, Jack The Giant, Blue Shark, Calling Brave, Burton Port, Petit Robin, Finian’s Rainbow etc etc etc.
Being bullish and saying one of his horses will ‘romp’ anything after an enforced break is foolhardy. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but you need a run to prove their wellbeing first.
it wasn’t a serious injury he had though? they could have had him back for the second half of last season but decided against rushing him. I personally think hes going to be a monster this year. I expect him to go very close in the king George before going on to win the Ryanair.
Didn’t even consider Simonsig when thinking about the race, completely forgot about him! So Henderson reckons this will be his intended target?
King George is his confirmed first target. Would doubt hes a gold cup distance horse – I can see them sending him to win the Ryanair. Could win the queen mother if sprinter doesn’t come back right (but im obviously praying that’s not the case).
it wasn’t a serious injury he had though? they could have had him back for the second half of last season but decided against rushing him. I personally think hes going to be a monster this year. I expect him to go very close in the king George before going on to win the Ryanair.
I don’t want to come across as a kook, but totally believe that Nicky Henderson can’t be trusted with anything he says about the wellbeing of his horses. It’s all meaningless and misleading PR. There was the Binocular affair and he kept it quiet when Punchestowns was running races with a niggle. It’s surprising that his upbeat reports about your namesake last season (while missing races with the old ‘scoped dirty’ and ‘poor blood count’ chestnuts) weren’t scrutinised when it emerged that there were much more serious issues.
Maybe they were just being ultra-cautious with Simonsig last year, but I’m deeply skeptical. He’s currently rated 162 and would be a 175+ animal if the hype is right. He’d be 185+ if all this ‘on the snaff’ stuff is right. If he’s that good, surely the Paddy Power would be a good starting point? What do you reckon?
it wasn’t a serious injury he had though? they could have had him back for the second half of last season but decided against rushing him. I personally think hes going to be a monster this year. I expect him to go very close in the king George before going on to win the Ryanair.
I don’t want to come across as a kook, but totally believe that Nicky Henderson can’t be trusted with anything he says about the wellbeing of his horses. It’s all meaningless and misleading PR. There was the Binocular affair and he kept it quiet when Punchestowns was running races with a niggle. It’s surprising that his upbeat reports about your namesake last season (while missing races with the old ‘scoped dirty’ and ‘poor blood count’ chestnuts) weren’t scrutinised when it emerged that there were much more serious issues.
Maybe they were just being ultra-cautious with Simonsig last year, but I’m deeply skeptical. He’s currently rated 162 and would be a 175+ animal if the hype is right. He’d be 185+ if all this ‘on the snaff’ stuff is right. If he’s that good, surely the Paddy Power would be a good starting point? What do you reckon?
mate, everything you are saying is making sense. I cant poke any holes in your logic. Nicky past record on keeping the public fully in the loop on his horses well being would be questionable. I am taking what he is saying about Simonsig injury at face value – it wasn’t serious, they didn’t want to rush him, no surgery etc. No need to have a bet yet until he does some serious work. Hes my idea of the winner if he comes back as nicky is saying but we don’t need to act yet.
The original poster has named 4/5 horses in the frame and had forgot Simonsig. My thinking is hes good enough to beat any of the horses named if he comes back like the horse we know.Jonjo has stated he thinks
Taquin du seuil
is a Gold Cup horse,yep he may well be but it wont be this season not whilst he has
Holywell
and
Shutthefrontdoor
as 2 serious players.I think ‘Taquin’ looks tailor-made for the Ryanair and am taking 10/1 at regular rates,he’s another who just gets better and better,handles any ground and has won at the festival.I dont fear any Greys against ‘Taquin’ either.’Uxizandre’ is my danger.
I strongly recommend taking the 20s about Rajdhani Express. I’m convinced there’s a big race in him, and he looked well today. SWC will be rightly annoyed with himself for that unseat.
RE is a lovely type and I’m confident he’ll develop into a grade 1 horse.
Totally agree Joe, bet him in The Ryanair last year, and had a right go on him. Thankfully bet him each way, but was counting my dough until the straight. The 20’s does
look fair for this seasons renewal.Although The Ryanair looks the sensible option, I’ve taken a chance they’ll step him up, and bet a few quid on him at silly prices for The Gold Cup.
That’s an interesting thought, Bobby. I see Hills have him in their Gold Cup market (at 50s), but not in the Ryanair.
He hasn’t struck me as an out and out stayer so far, and the fact that they were happy to go for the Old Roan on good ground and back him for it reinforced my thoughts that they’d keep him at that trip.
King George entries will tell the tale, I suppose.
Good luck
Joe
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