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I have been rethinking the peddlers situation and I am actually a little worried I am showing him too little respect. The last race is fair to ignore in my opinion, he smashed the first and was always just not going right and making up ground. I think he could still be a big danger. Has a monster engine, wins at the festival and place in the champion. If you ignore the last race which was a disaster but still showed good guts to keep going where a lesser horse would throw in the towel i just think he might be more of a contender than i ruthlessly assessed. I am abandonding the race and just hope al ferof does the job and places atleast. I think any of the top three could win and will look forward to see it unfold and hope they all get clear runs. No excuses.
I think it is simply a case of hold bets until middle of feb for the race. Minsk is entered for a race mid feb.
Adonis will be informative as will the fact that minsk is entered in a race so will learn a lot from those two events.
The race on saturday will hopefully help narrow the field a little.
I like saddlers risk but want to see how he goes in there. Also a little short at the moment.
I would be cautious backing him in the neptune. Henderson remarked that he wouldn’t be scared to go back in distance because he has so much speed.
I would still be concerned about how he travelled to challenge and then fingal repelled him. He won’t reverse that form.
I like to think you are not calling me a pillok
It all makes sense then.
Cleeve should be a decent event, the triumph trial will be a goodun too.
Waiting for Minsk, Dildar and the henderson horses who will probably go the adonis route. Then will assess them and plough in late feb.
Zarks, Clutching at straws because i have backed two of the beneficials but what distances are his winners? Ie what percentage were over 2m4?
And were the winners all hurdlers?
Also I have a strong liking for national hunt bred horses with pointing background. I think they have a great record. Trouble is you get a lot of them in the staying novice races. I would prefer to narrow the race down and avoid french breds usually. Just how I tend to approach the race and had a fair few winners and placers with it.
Like your work though, fascinating stuff.
Now i am concerned about My beneficials including the meade one but again i clutch to the reason that atleast he has won the neptune in recent years with nicanor so there is hope. MONKSLAND!!!
Had a small go at 70-1. Means i have an interest at inflated odds. Hope the restrained tactics bring about improvement but whats a 5er?
Oscar is seriously class but i like the horse to have shown stamina in staying races before hand. It is a bit too short for me. Hope he goes for the world hurdle would be cruel if they change their plan. Don’t undesrstand why run at fos las when they can go the cleeve hurdle route and learn so much more. They could measure against bucks and see how he handles 3 miles? If he fails badly then back to the chammpion for the festival. it baffles me.
Ps if he wins the argento and shortens for the gold cup layout your bet and save your money.
I mean not to cause offense only highlight my approach to certain horses I intend to avoid.
In response Medermit won the haldon against a largely second season chase field.
My interpretation of Captain Chris is he is the best british second season chaser. Decent don’t get me wrong just the best of a weak bunch though i.e. not a world beater. He does however have the scalp of most the others from the king george so should give a nice place effort, just can’t see him catching long run.
The boylesport was not a top class race by any means, just a handicap, the best performance was medermit and even though i am on him for smalls he is no doubt not top class. Look at the horses in that race they are not championship horses.
Finians hasn’t done anything wrong but he won’t win the qm and if they step him up it will be a desparation act to win a top race.
I wouldn’t back any these horses in their targets It is just my perception. I hope one of them proves me wrong – Medermit.
If the second season chasers are a group of stars then i stand to have a terrible festival. I am happy to bet they aren’t though.
No offence intended, good to have mixed opinions otherwise we’d all be backing the same horse.
I’ll just holdfire then me thinks.
I am inclined just to avoid the race to be honest. I think he is one of the better horses but know he will give it his all going for the win and might get run out of it in which case i’ll be gutted.
Ok i may miss out on 10-1 second but not sure he will run like that and he tired in rapid circumstances, the cheltenham climb might just make it a whole lot worst. I am talking myself out of it.
I am also leaning away from the Ryanair. I want an interest and have a small ew on medermit but i genuinely think 8 horses could win.
Love Rubi Light, he jumps well and is classy, lot to like about his effort as a 6 year old last year. I am not as conceerned about the good ground as he ran well enough last year. I like noble prince but wish i had seen him more in similar distances this year to gauge progression. I am against all the second season chasers especially the brits who have all disappointed me including captain chris. i just could never have him for the Gold cup he was hammered by the two in front and can’t see him improving to be honest.
Rubi light and quito are the two who are least exposed and have formlines that suggest they might be the better two out of last year. Quito however has been alarmingly outpaced in slow races. i’d be inclined to wait for him to go for a slog, he will be a nice place potential in the gold cup though running through beaten ones.
Rubi light I’ll be on come the day i suspect in the ryanair, he has improved, if it was softer id smash into him on the day for sure. However they still might go for gold and i think it is worth holding fire.
Sorry for the waffling.
I am pretty sure i have seen 12s on the wo big bucks market.
It means i miss out 33-1 if he wins. but bucks is a machine.
12-1 win if he comes second. i might actually go in with a heavier bet on the w/o market say 3/4pts ew say then anything up to 4th and i will get 3-1 on. Then i’ll follow it up with a smaller ew at 33-1 which would be 8-1 on the place and if something goes a miss with bucks then he could be in contention.
mmmmmmm
8-1 on him finishing in top 3 place at 33s
or 3-1 to finish in top four with a 12-1 win if he comes second.Mix is the best way to play i think.
If they delay the final kick a little he should beat the rest I agree. I was all over him on his seasonal debut and love his hurdling, never puts a foot wrong. I’ll probably have a go on him.
Boz i’m a huge fan of dynaste and agree he was a bit too handy last time could have slowed it down a little and got a better trip out of him.
He did still stretch them all and had bucks puffing a little. My massive worry is he will be one of tthe only ones who has the capability to really throw some sort of challenge down and then weaken to be beaten by weaker plodders.
I’ll be having a sneaky ew interest i suspect but am concerned he will slit his throat with either tactics or being second best but tiring and coming 4th or 5th.
2m4 is his ideal trip but i think he has mentioned rsa if grands crus isn’t there.
I would just prefer to second guess on him. I think i would be forced for a small saver if he runs in this. RSA is too hot for him in my opinion.
I am convinced Rock on Ruby is the horse to be on in the market without Hurricane Fly.
The triumph horses are always overbet in this and they need to buck trends and improve hugely in the season. I just don’t trust Grandoeut one bit, he finds trouble in small fields so the competitive chapion race will be monstrous.
Zarkandar has to prove to me he has improved, i don’t deal in potential for alone for the championships.
Binocular won’t be getting faster since his weaker win previously.
Rock on Ruby ran an excellent second at the festival last year, the neptune has previous champion hurdlers come out of it. The top weight hurdle win this season was exceptional, the extra stamina will stand him in good stead. The loss to binocular was in a small field over a course that suited the winner, besides ror would have passed in a steep finish.
8/1 ew nrnb. YES PLEASE
