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I was very taken with Urbain de Sivola at Newbury. I think there could be considerably more to come and am happy to take the 20s on offer.
I was at Cheltenham for the Paddy Power meeting, and couldn’t have been more impressed with Hinterland in the Triumph Trial on the Saturday. Ok, he may not have won by 20-30 lengths like Sam Winner like last year, but that may have done us a favour with his price. He travelled like an absolute dream throughout, and went over the hurdles like they weren’t there. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a 3 year old jump as well as him before. He is a very scopey character and Paul Nicholls has already said he’ll make a smashing chaser some day. The form from the race has turned out well with the two who finished behind him that day going on to turn in convincing wins in their follow up runs. He will be out again at Cheltenham on Saturday in the first and I for one will be watching intently(granted it’ll probably be at odds-on!).
The 10/1 with Hills ante-post may not seem that appealing to some, but I truly believe that this could be a serious horse some day.
Do you really want to back a French-bred Nicholls horse for the Triumph Hurdle who has already put in a great display over 2 miles in November and has entries to run again in December? He’ll need 2m 4f in March and his career is headed towards fences.
Zarks: I too have backed Hinterland (20s) EW for the Triumph. However I totally see where you are coming from in that this race generally sees the winner running FTO in the New Year and being an ex flat type! But Hinterland skipped over the hurdles and hopefully Mr Nicholls will win Saturday and then put him away until February and we will get a race for our money
I assume the 20/1 was pre-Cheltenham?
I can’t see Hinterland stepping up in trip in the near future. He travelled and jumped really well and the only disappointment was the failure to really go clear from the last. Had he done that we would probably be talking about 5/1 or shorter.
Yes, he does look more of a chasing type but on what we have seen so far it is hard to argue with his position at the head of the market. He didn’t look as if he wanted a great deal of experience so if he wins at the weekend no surprise if he is kept fresh for March.
I suppose the big question is what Henderson has got to offer.
Stilvi: Yes, was the day before, after reading Mr Nicholls Stable Tour. Took a chance as he quite rightly reminded people that an ex flat type regularly wins this race but he spoke so well of the horse that it was worth the gamble of £40
Hinterland still available at 10s, and will be half that after tomorrow if all goes according to plan.
Just out of interest, when did Celestial Halo make his debut? I remember him getting turned over by Sentry Duty (possibly in this race?), but that was his second start over timber.
They’re similar horses at this stage of their careers.
The perils of ante-post betting, Hinterland suddenly looks a complete washout and must be doubtful he will even make the Triumph – surprising the bookmakers haven’t pushed him out more. Looks the juvenile equivalent of Mon Parrain.
If we accept Hinterland was only favourite by default, difficult to know how to evaluate the winner.
I still feel a great amount for the horse, and Saturday’s effort cannot take away from his jumping. One thing that did bother was how obviously one paced he was up the straight. I forgave him this in his first race at the Open meeting but to see it again is worrying. Granted I’m sure we haven’t seen the 2012 Triumph winner yet, but I still think Hinterland will have a great future chasing. He is after all, only 3…………
Got to take the rough with the smooth, i should have known better though, the winner of the Troumph does not turn up until February these days! Ahh well onwards and upwards
Just had a look at the last ten years for this race, aiming to find out when the winner debuts in Britain over hurdles:
The winner debuted before Christmas 6 times out of 10 before the new year.
The runner up debuted 8 times out of 10 before the new year.
The third place debuted 8 times out of 10 before the new year.
So, over the last ten years, 22 of the 30 horses to fill the placings had made their debuts over hurdles before the new year. So, using this logic, we have seen 2 out of the first 3 already. Baby Mix? Hinterland? Urbain De Sivola? Ranjaan? Ut De Sivola?
I can’t have any of the above with the possible exception of Urbain De Sivola, and I may have missed any Irish challengers.
And yes, I’ve backed Hinterland.
At the start of the season I was fully aware of the New Year – Triumph winner stat. However, I saw Hinterland as an exception. I still see him as a fantastic prospect, and in a couple of years from now, he WILL be a multiple grade 1 chase winner.
Right now though, I have my Friday ticket for the festival, and I’m still waiting for the Triumph Hurdle winner to appear…………
Be interested to see which of King’s 3 recent winners head for this race. Grumeti was very impressive in beating Ted Spread by a wide margin, Vendor would have beaten a good yardstick further if not for a bad mistake at the last, whilst Balder success won nicely today (admittedly a weak race). King invariably has a Juvenile that is near the top of the tree (Mughas, Penzance, Katchit, Blazing Bailey, Franchoek, Mille Chief) so will be interesting to see which one of these is his likely candidate.
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