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I don’t believe we’ve seen the winner yet. I fancy the winner will come out of the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton…….we’ll see eh?
Hills are offering 14s on Grumeti winning today and the Triumph. I’ve just had a little nibble.
Blunkett: That’s a nice bet mate, i too though think the Adonis holds the key to this race. Various trainers will be holding one back and hopefully we will see DILDAR make his debut in it.
dun…dun…dun…another one bites the dust
That was an awful race – even if Grumeti had stayed on in his feet i’d have had doubts about him in the Triumph
Zarks: Miles clear but the hurdles are there to be jumped! The winner of the Triumph should come from the Adonis too
Well ok, he looked good against a 40/1 shot, winless in 6 prior starts, rated 75 on the flat and with form figures of 6F over hurdles – and the F was more than likely going to be a very high number.
Something seriously wrong with ante-post betting if all firms but Bet365 and Paddy Power decide to cut his price.
The trainer also wants to run him twice more before the Festival. That’s a long way to go with a hell of a lot more horses due to come out of the woodwork.
Well ok, he looked good against a 40/1 shot, winless in 6 prior starts, rated 75 on the flat and with form figures of 6F over hurdles – and the F was more than likely going to be a very high number.
Something seriously wrong with ante-post betting if all firms but Bet365 and Paddy Power decide to cut his price.
The trainer also wants to run him twice more before the Festival. That’s a long way to go with a hell of a lot more horses due to come out of the woodwork.
Shortening the price is ludicrous.
Baby Mix ran a time very similar to Sam Winner’s in the December trial and has been more impressive than Grumeti yet they are the same price
How useful this is is anybody’s guess. Came about the idea of looking into winning distances last week when discussing Grumeti and after watching his replay today I decided to actually look into it properly. Didn’t take long but could be useful maybe.
I’m a firm believer that style-over-substance novice/maiden wins are usually done by fairly ordinary horses beating trees. I really don’t like flat horses that win their racecourse debuts by 5L+ because they are usually pretty ordinary horses who get turned over at a short-price on their next start in Group company. There are obvious exceptions, yes. Workforce the most prominent one that comes to mind, although he was beaten on his 2nd start at 2/1. Canford Cliffs hosed up in the Coventry.
So I thought about researching the average winning distances of any horse who ran in the Triumph with nothing but 1s next to their name (just one 1 doesn’t count).
19 unbeaten hurdlers with more than 1 run to their name (I believe) have run in the Triumph since 1998.
The 3 unbeaten winners posted average winning distances of 9.66L (Katarino), 7.33L (Penzance) and 6L (Zaynar).
The 3 unbeaten placed horses had averages of 5.5L (Well Chief), 3.75L (Akilak) and 6L (Unaccompanied).
Which leaves 13 unbeaten horses who finished unplaced.
4 of those won by an average of 11.25L+. 2 of them were trained by Nicky Henderson.
5 of them won by an average of 3.5L or less.
And the remaining 4 won by an average of 4.875L, 4.66L, 4.5L and 6.33L.
That means that only 5 unbeaten horses with an average winning distance between 6 and 10 lengths ran – 3 won, 1 finished 2nd, 1 unplaced.
Which means that of the 6 unbeaten horses to finish in the Top 3 in the Triumph since 1998, 5 of them had an average winning distance between 5 and 10 lengths.
I looked into the Supreme Novices’ to see if the data showed anything similar. Only 2 unbeaten horses have run in the Supreme since 1998 with an average winning distance of more than 10L; both were trained by Nicky Henderson, both were placed – Amaretto Rose and Spirit Son.
This data doesn’t apply to Grumeti obviously as he fell today, but you’d have to think his average winning distance would be about 16L had he stayed on his feet.
Ut De Sivola’s stands on 5.375L.
Well ok, he looked good against a 40/1 shot, winless in 6 prior starts, rated 75 on the flat and with form figures of 6F over hurdles – and the F was more than likely going to be a very high number.
Something seriously wrong with ante-post betting if all firms but Bet365 and Paddy Power decide to cut his price.
The trainer also wants to run him twice more before the Festival. That’s a long way to go with a hell of a lot more horses due to come out of the woodwork.
Shortening the price is ludicrous.
Baby Mix ran a time very similar to Sam Winner’s in the December trial and has been more impressive than Grumeti yet they are the same price
Yup, only 1 of the last 8 Triumph winners had more than 3 runs over hurdles too.
Why are we dimissing Gurmeti? I’ve seen no logical or analytical response that suggests Grumeti isn’t a contender for this.
Firstly, some discount him on the basis of Ted Spread running in the same race, and now we are devaluing the form of this race ; a race in which he did not complete.
He would have won on the Bridle by ten lengths. It wouldn’t have told us much, and any possible limitations would still be unkwown. So no, he isn’t a certainty to win the Triumph, but to imply he doesn’t have an above average chance of winning the Triuimemp seems rather incorrect and exaggerated at this time.
Baby Mix ran a time very similar to Sam Winner’s in the December trial and has been more impressive than Grumeti yet they are the same price
Because Sam Winner won last year? If you’re going to use data to compound an argument or stance, atleast use data that has enough significant merit to it.
Why are we dimissing Gurmeti? I’ve seen no logical or analytical response that suggests Grumeti isn’t a contender for this.
Firstly, some discount him on the basis of Ted Spread running in the same race, and now we are devaluing the form of this race ; a race in which he did not complete.
Don’t see the problem with that personally. He beat Ted Spread 14L getting 13lbs.
Ted Spread was beaten 13L off levels the month earlier.
And yes, the form of today’s race looks very iffy. It’s fairly certain Grumeti would have won – what difference does it make that he fell? The form is still very iffy in my eyes.
He would have won on the Bridle by ten lengths. It wouldn’t have told us much, and any possible limitations would still be unkwown. So no, he isn’t a certainty to win the Triumph, but to imply he doesn’t have an above average chance of winning the Triuimemp seems rather incorrect and exaggerated at this time.
Well that’s the point of the data I looked at with horses winning by colossal distances. They usually beat trees on the bridle and then are found wanting when they come up against better, faster opposition.
As for dismissing him, I’m not at all. I just think having a 10/1 shot who’s beaten a bunch of slow horses and fallen on his 2nd start over hurdles is taking the p**s.
Bookmakers certainly don’t need much encouragement to clip a few points. Yes, he would have won easily but on the day what was he beating and that would have been two soft ground victories plus not the best of experiences. Will he be able to improve on a better surface and a totally different track? Plenty of reasons to have left the price as it was I would have thought.
Nicholls has said that Dildar will have just 1 run prior to Cheltenham in a novice hurdle at Taunton.
Not sure 1 run in a tinpot hurdle race with a 4-runner field will be the ideal prep for a Triumph runner…
Grumeti the only thing to me that has looked like a Triumph winner so far. Stumbled more than anything today and a bit of an unlucky fall when about to hose up under a penalty. Not sure how you could be negative about him.
Quite frustrating that today. If he would have stood up, I imagine he would be 6s(ish).
Its an interesting point Zarkava makes. Horses who are maybe a little more battle hardened and who have run against better horses have a better record than bridle merchants who have won Juvenile Hurdles by a fence. Looking at some previous winners, Katchit would be an example of this, as would Detroit City and Penzance.
I must admit that part of the reasoning behind my bet was also connections. Alan King knows how to ready a Triumph winner imo, but now there is no value left in Grumeti at all.
Also, Penzance beat Faasel not Well Chief. Well Chief was second to either Spectroscope or Spectrometer or whatever it was called.
Back to the drawing board I suppose – at least I have Hinterland each way @ 10s!
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