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Just upped the interest on sir des champs at 12s with 2pts ew
Also Zarks, you’ve convinced me 1pt ew and 1 pt win on solix.
What race is champion court going for? I like Solix but i just thought champion court held him reasonably comfortably and jumps better? 14-1.
Totally agree with you GDC I can see it going either way between him and Al Ferof with different qualities matching up.
Al Ferof will be finishing well enough it is just a case of will he become outpaced, i suspect not too much and the climb to the line will help him no end.
Sprinter should be turning the screw turning in and it is a case of how frantic they go early on that will decide it. I would love 12s on him but 5-2???
Although i wrote off Peddlers I am still concerned about him too, he has an engine and I like the fact that he kept closing the gap on Sprinter and Whacked the first pretty hard too. It is not too much to think that wasn’t his true running and he could have easily winded himself and yet still ran ok on a track that suited sprinter to a tea.
Can’t however argue that Sprinter took a length out of him every jump and looks to have a monster future. I for one will be following Sprinter and Al Ferof blindly after this race and it is the race I am personally looking most forward to. I think they will both prosper going over further and Sprinter, Al Ferof show down against Long Run in the King George next year, I’d have either of them.
Sprinter has some good 2m5- 3m horses in his family which does concern me about my theory that Alferof’s stamina is a major asset, if sprinter shows a decent stamina level too he wins. One thing we know is that alferof will run to the line in frantic race and has won it before, handled the hill and got past a tired sprinter last year. However Sprinter hit the second last in the supreme and emptied soon after, i suspect he will be cleaner over his fences and if so may just get away from them.
Can’t call it but can’t bloody wait either!!!
It could be a case of the stamina beating front horse like last years arkle and my way de solzen – Al Ferof win
Or just the monster 2miler – Masterminded, azertiyoup, moscow style stamping a new hoof on the scene and win for Sprinter.
Fascinating.
PS, SE win over somersby was being closed all the way in the arkle and held on!!!
However, Sizing Europe this year loks nailed on and is the banker of the meeting with the usual quevega.
Noble prince a different entity over 2m4f and good ground. I am not too fussed about how the runners have done since they were decent novices that haven’t progressed whereas noble has run some ok races over inadequate distance and ground.
I think i speak for a lot of people that it will be great if Grands Crus goes for the gold cup. one step closer for Bobs worth. I think he could reverse with him but nicer not to have to.
Do think it is mistake taking the novice chaser to gold cup, too much of a gamble. Long Run for example was appallingly novicey in the RSA he lost.
Third intention who jumps the hurdles so well and ran a blinder penultimate start before nearly giving a potential triumph winner a stone and a half. He has to go close.
I make it him or empire levant at the weights.
I will be tucking into the 25s and 20s available up until the day.
I hope to pay for the festival with these two.
Sea Pigeon,
Nice post. I have done medermit but didn’t realise he has still to win at the course, I just hope he sneaks a place.
I wouldn’t have somersby as much as i like him because i think he needs small fields to win. Value gone there too.
I have been convinced after watching endeavours hennessy again and wil have a dip at 14s now. Also like your pointers for Kauto stone, i am not sure if he has ever raced over a course with undulations like cheltenham and think he looks a little light framed so will avoid him.
With Poquelin, ok ew shout but i can’t see him winning, he couldn’t last year so why now? this looks a hotter renewal.
Noble prince i’ll back on the day, he improves for better ground.
Peddlers has dissappointed me twice this year and i have lost confidence in him. Al ferof will relish the hill we all know that. Will sprinter??? I am not convinced.
Somersby nearly beat szing europe in the arkle so to call him a plodder is absolutely ludicrous. Furthermore i am convinced he would have placed in last years champion only until he clattered the third. Yet still plugged on gamely for a decent 5th place, most horses would empty quickly after such a smash, he has heart and class. Where do the haters of somersby get ther material.
Reality is the race is between 4 horses on known form, cue card i don’t trust, Peddlers has ran a couple of stinkers since the festival last year and has lost my support.
5-2 about sprinter who could well be a superstar but could also do another supreme from last year and fade when challenged.
OR
7-1 about a very pleasing third in a decent renewal of the vc chase who has proven he can handle the hill at cheltenham and has definitely got that all important stamina. The odds on offer now have to bet on him.
Fairdos if you got on sprinter at 12s that is a great bet. I intend on playing this race with £100 on Alferof and £50 on Sprinters. I can’t see it going to any other horse but will settle for breaking even on sprinter.
Started attacking the festival the last few weeks and am beginning to build a pleasing enough portfolio.
Supreme: Colour Squadron 20-1 2pts win – Think the novicey issue of hanging his chance away will not occur again and he is still the English hope for me.
Cash and Go – 16-1 2 pts, liked his performance last time and think he should be 10-1 or shorter.
Arkle – Al Ferof 2 pts 8-1 4 pts 7-1
CH: Spirit Son 8-1 5pts NRNB
Rock on Ruby 14-1 2 points and W/O Hurricane 2 pts 8-1
Been hugely inpressed with him and the handicap performance in november was one of the best performances ive seen this year the loss the binocular was a glitch and the track and race suited binocular, the proven neptune stamina rock and ruby has will stand him in good stead, the new hardy eustace.Neptune: Make your Mark 2pts 14-1, Monksland 2pts 18-1.
Noel Meade has a poor record but hi has won the neptune recently and Monksland should be shorter.RSA – Bobs Worth 5 points 7-1, Grands crus is class but to short for me. I think bobs will improve a lot for the course and tries hard.
Last Instalment 12-1 2 ptsBumper – Champagne fever – 20/1 2 points interest bet but he ran well on his debut against some more experienced rivals.
Jewson – Sir Des Champs, 2 pts 12-1 time he clocked after left in the lead on last run was decent.
Ryanair – Medermit 18-1 2pts ew, ran a couple of solid races at the course and could well place or nick a wide open race.
Will be including noble prince too who i think is a seriously decent chance and is excellent on good ground.
Fred Winter – Kazlian 4pts 20-1, hope he goes for it and not the triumph, fits the bill for me and pipe has great record in the race.
Albert Bartlett – 3 pts fingal bay 6-1, should be going for this race and not neptune in my opinion. looks doubtful now.
Sea of thunder 14-1 3 points. too big after his display.
GC- Considering a large long run bet, jumps a bit dodge but gets round and he has comprehensively beaten everything this year except the king. I have to go for long run over kauto who will surely reverse at the course where Kauto has sometimes struggled to maintain form.
Foxhunters – 14-1 3 points, like the horse a lot and has festival form.
Looking forward to slamming into the handicaps which i think offer some excellent opportunities. Also want to get a bit on sizing europe, big zeb is held by him and the rest can’t cut it. finians is ok but can’t have him against sizing at all. strong run 2m festival suits SE to the ground. 5-2? should 6-4.
Tempting multiple
Long Run
Quevega
Sizing Europe
TrixieEw Lucky 15
Al ferof – will defo place
sea of thunder
bobs worth
sir des champLays of the week – Grandouet, kauto
Hahahaha. Nice.
Al ferof at 7s all day. Like both Spprinter and Al ferof but at 7-1 or 5-2 with proven stamina and ability to handle the cheltenham climb i am all over al.
Sorry if I am being a fool but Henderson has a better record than only Long Run at the festival. Top of my head Trabolgan and Fondmort. Am i just reading your chase stat incorrectly?
I think it gives them the option too but with bookies good reputation is key and i only think they would bring a rule 4 in if big bucks were to be removed for some reason it is the only race where they would be exposed at huge losses to other horses at much larger prices than they would be if bucks ran. All the other races i think they would be genuine and keep from any rule 4 action.
The more i look at this race the more i can’t allow myself to bet in it.
Long Run, without Kauto, would be a long distance winner of both the king george and betfair chase. However Kauto has been fantastic and been the only animal to put the champion to the sword.
All the other horses have been beaten with little valid excuses so for me it has to be Long Run with the extra two furlongs. He is however a dodgy jumper, ridden by an ok amateur at best and at 5/2 I just don’t think i can have him. I could play the ew game at large odds for Quito but i don’t like the fact that he has been hugely outpaced a few times this this year, however i do like that he seems to have stamina galore.
Tiny ew interest on him is about the only play i can justify.
Long run will probably win but i am happy to avoid the tremors and just sneer at the waley cohen smugness if he does.
Also gives me another reason to cheer kauto!!!
Gold Cup. Has to be Long Run, the two furlongs have to be in his favour and Kauto usually looks a little below his best at cheltenham along with the fact he is his age.
All the second season chasers are weak.
Quito for the place.
2 pts win long run 11/4
Champion Hurdle.
Spirit Son 2 pts 8/1want to be against the triumph two