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TRF Vs Pricewise

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  • #20684
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 416

    Tomorrow TS puts up his first ante post bet for the Festival – The Gold Cup. If anyone fancies taking him on, then post your bets here we’ll have a look back in March to see if anyone can beat Sir Tom. He will be tipping something up every Tuesday according to the RP site.

    There aren’t really many rules to the competition, although I believe Mr Segal only puts up one horse per race, so that’s all you will have. You are allowed to place your bet with any high street book maker, but must quote the price with your post. No aftertiming allowed. No betfair prices allowed, as Pricewise never quotes betfair prices in his tips.

    Segal generally only tips things up with a 1pt win or 1pt each way bet too, so to make things easier for me mathematically speaking, only those stakes will be allowed too. EDIT: 2pts win or 1pt each way are the allowed stakes, see later for reasons why.

    My first one is:

    1pt e/w Quel Esprit 33/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes.

    Over to you!

    #385399
    Venture to Cognac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 13957

    After last weeks disappointment, it’s not the most obvious choice, but having subsequently drifted, he could, conceivably, go for Quito De La Roque.

    33’s is too big. If he runs like he did last week, then he’s got no chance, and his lack of speed was totally exposed. However, if conditions fell right on the day, he’s still got an outside chance. He’s also got the extra 2f, and that hill in his favour. Unless he flops again in his next outing, then at least there’s a chance

    1pt ew 33’s Coral

    #385400
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5552

    The Gold Cup is shaping up to be the race of the Festival, with comeback king Kauto Star taking on Long Run for the fourth time. With the score at two all, I fancy Long Run to come out on the top here. His jumping has let him down so far this season, but he was closing Kauto Star down all the way to the line in the King George, and the extra distance can only help him here.

    If there is a horse to take advantage of Long Run’s jumping, Kauto Star is definitely the most likely to do so in my opinion. The hill found him out last year but he more than likely wasn’t at his best, as seen in his other performance last season. There probably won’t be two much between them.

    Of the rest, Grands Crus is next in the market but I couldn’t back him here. I don’t fancy him to win the RSA against the novices and he’d be up against two very good horses if he takes his chance here.

    Synchronised look brilliant in the Lexus but it would take another big step forward for him to win this. I’m still not sure what to make of that race. Quito De La Roque travelled well before finding nothing more off the bridle, while Rubi Light was also a shade disappointing. If Synchronised is as good as he looked there, he’ll have a chance. I don’t want to pay to find out if he can do that again though.

    Jessies Dream is a horse I’ve always liked and there’s been plenty of support for him lately. I backed him last year in the RSA where I felt stamina found him out up the hill. I’d be more interested in his chances in the Ryanair.

    Quel Esprit looked to be cruising when falling in the RSA last year. He has looked very good at times and perhaps we’ll see him step back into Grade 1 company in the Hennessy. I’d be surprised if Mullins sent him straight for the Gold Cup so if he’s going to Cheltenham that seems like it could be the most likely next step.

    QUITO DE LA ROQUE had been as short as 10/1 for this pre-Lexus. I had expressed my opinion that the way of racing in Ireland doesn’t play to his strengths. They often go slow and then sprint for home, and that’s exactly the way it panned out at Leopardstown. He just doesn’t have an instant change of gear, and takes a while to wind up. They’ll go flat out at Cheltenham which will be to his advantage and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t give a much better performance than he did in the Lexus.

    Quito De La Roque
    1pt each-way 33/1
    Corals

    #385401
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Captain Chris 20/1 1pt EW

    #385402
    Euro
    Member
    • Total Posts 403

    Captain Chris is a spring horse who ran well in the King George despite an interrupted preparation and having the race not run to suit him (he was anchored at the back in a relatively slowly run contest). Cheltenham will also suit him far more than Kempton did.

    Captain Chris 1pt each way @ 20/1 Bet365.

    #385403
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2810

    I’ll gladly take him on, but the Gold Cup is a bad race to start with as far as i’m concerned because Long Run – the best horse – will not have the best jockey riding him. Fair enough he won last year but it’s about reliability, consistency. Villa just beat Chelsea and then lost to Swansea.
    I exoect Kauto to be leading for the final circuit, and if Long Run’s jockey is having a good day, i expect him to pass him up the hill.
    Synchronised is an obvious each way antepost selection now he’s proven himself on better ground but i cannot see him winning it unless it’s a bog.

    #385408
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    There’s not an awful lot he can go for, as many are doubtful runners priced as if they will run. Captain Chris 16/1 Ladbroke NRNB e/w for me.

    #385413
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1533

    Daft rule only 1pt or 1pt ew obviusly everyone no matter what they select will go ew.

    On reflection Synchronised must he improved an awful lot for Jonjo to even think about running him in the Lexus. Prior to the race the ground was against him the trip was too short and he was very likely to tail himself off at some stage. For one brief moment he looked like he was in trouble but that was quickly dismissed and he beaten all the odds and won easily. 3m2f an an even stiffer track should bring out even more improvement

    I’m convinced it is no longer possible for Kauto Star to win a Gold Cup. His main asset, instant acceleration, has gone and he simply does not get up the hill without a head start on the field. If anything takes him on before the last he will lose.

    Neither am I convinced that Long Run is any kind of superstar and this years race looks like it could be stamina that wins the day and not speed.

    1pt ew Synchronised 12/1 general

    #385414
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 416

    "Hurdygurdyman" wrote: Daft rule only 1pt or 1pt ew obviusly everyone no matter what they select will go ew.

    Agreed, it can be 2pts/1pt e/w. If anyone wants to revise their choices, then they may do so.

    I’ll collate the list before next Monday evening before Segal’s next tip.

    #385416
    elgransenor1
    Member
    • Total Posts 625

    why is segal so good? is he some kind of genius? I have a theory about this.. that he gets inside information.

    #385441
    Steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5766

    1pt EW Weird Al @25/1 – VChandler

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #385454
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    And the answer is ………. Captain Chris at 20-1. A more or less forced selection in my view and not totally convincing as he’s not certain to run and prefers right-handed tracks. From RP today:

    Chris has to prove Gold
    Cup ability – Hobbs

    BY RACING POST STAFF 2:00PM 3 JAN 2012

    PHILIP HOBBS hopes that Captain Chris can make up into a Betfred Gold Cup contender, but concedes that the chaser has "a bit to prove."

    The eight-year-old, last seen when third in the William Hill King George VI Chase behind Kauto Star, was selected by Pricewise supremo Tom Segal as his value bet for the Cheltenham Festival showpiece and is now a general 14-1 chance having been advised at 20-1.

    Hobbs,speaking on At The Races on Tuesday afternoon, said: "We were pleased with his comeback in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, even though he unseated. The only disappointing thing in the King George was he’s normally a horse who jumps and travels very well and he didn’t do either, although he stayed on alright. The finishing position was satisfactory but he didn’t appear to be at his best."

    The King George run was a first attempt at 3m for Captain Chris, and he would have to stay an extra 2½ furlongs in the Gold Cup.
    Hobbs added: "The trip is a bit of a concern but he’s a better horse on good ground, which is likely at Cheltenham, although finding it before then is the trouble."

    The trainer also stated that going left handed at Cheltenham is a "minor disadvantage," due to him jumping slightly to the right and that the Ryanair Chase is definitely an option.

    The Argento Chase at Cheltenham on January 28, the Aon Chase at Newbury in February and the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase at Ascot are all possible targets for Captain Chris.

    #385504
    TomBarkley87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1822

    @kasparov – Where did you find 20/1 for Captain Chris post-pricewise?

    I’d have to agree with HGM – the Gold Cup betting looks strewn with no shows at this point. However, the point about it being purely a stamina test is only half true – if Long Run jumps to perfection who will beat him. Though there again, if Kauto jumps as he has this season and stays all the way to the finish, who will beat him?

    The only one I like of the ‘outsiders’ is Synchronised. Although a Grand National entry has been mentioned, surely a combination of Welsh National and Lexus wins will make life impossible at the weights, and the ground will probably be too quick. He looks a perfect alternative to the obvious and a place should not be beyond him.

    1 point e/w Synchronised – 12/1@general

    @TopWeightTom

    #385510
    MarkTT
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2810

    I think it’s highly unlikely Synchronised will run in the GN, although he’ll be entered. Surely Gold Cup and then Punchestown.

    #385524
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 660

    Boz – I never found 20-1 on CC post-PW. I was simply saying what Segal had put up. I happen to think 16-1 NRNB (which I did get pre-PW) was a better deal than 20-1 antepost though as CC might run in the Ryanair or like any other horse might have an injury or other excuse for not turning up.

    I think Synchro looks a good deal, especially at place odds on the exchange, and his odds would come in sharply if the going turned soft.

    Another thing to consider, apart from the rejuvenation of Kauto, is whether Long Run is regressing. His jumping seems worse than last year and it’s not obvious it will get better in time for the GC.

    #385556
    roosterbooster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 207

    give this one a go should be fun over the next 10 or so weeks.

    THink the Gold Cup field could really cut up as we approach the race with trainers opting for Ryanair, or leaving horses for Aintree.

    As such, tho not anything original i think the 9/2 for Kauto with Boyle Sports at the moment will look very good value on the day when he trades at around the 2/1 or 5/2 mark in a field of 7 or 8 runners

    2pt win Kauto @ 9/2 Boyles

    thanks

    #385606
    Pants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 639

    Weird Al was only a couple of lengths behind Long Run at Haydock and looks overpriced to me;

    1pt e/w Weird Al, 25/1 (Victor Chandler).

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