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Betfair Hurdle 2012

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  • #20764
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 942

    This could provide us with a very nice 8/1 winner for those that are willing to take a chance ante post wise!!

    Mr Nicholls holds all the aces here and has Celestial Halo entered as top rated followed by Rock on Ruby (surely will not run) and Brampour! Further down we have last seasons Triumph winner ZARKANDAR[/color:2sgpyb3k] who could be nicely weighted on about 10st 12lbs should as expected Celestial Halo or Brampour stay in! This race falls nicely just 4 weeks prior to the festival so I feel sure Mr Nicholls will have a tilt with him.

    I for one am willing to take a chance :D

    #386585
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Its about time the top weights were allotted over 12st to carry in these supposedly competitive handicaps to stop Mr Nicholls from using his top weights to prevent his rivals running off their correct mark.
    The highest winning mark I could find for a recent winner of the race is 144, so Zarkandar would have plenty to do on a mark of 151 especially on seasonal debut. Though I think running him in that would give connexions a more realistic idea of his Champion Hurdle chances than running in one of the small runner conditions races. While the 8/1 might look tempting, if he goes there not fully tuned up, he will be meeting horses trained specifically for that race.

    #386609
    thehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5551

    I’d be interested in Sailors Warn here. If Celestial Halo runs he’ll only be carrying 10-1 if Celestial Halo runs and was a bit unlucky last time out I felt. He’s also entered in the Pierse but Wilmott has the favorite Scottish Boogie entered in that too.

    #386630
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 14083

    Looks a decent enough entry at the moment.

    I agree Zarkandar could have this set up nicely for him. He would be hard to beat.

    However, I’ll probably try to find one at a decent price. Just had a quick browse, and was glad to see Get Me Out Of Here entered, he’ll always be of interest in a big 2m Hcap Hurdle like this. The same applies to Pateese. These were the 2 names I was hoping to see in the entries, so I’ll keep an eye on them for definite.

    Wouldn’t worry about siding with a Novice either, on past runnings anyway, so wouldn’t rule out All The Aces, who might just find this ideal for him.

    Bobby Ewing would be another interesting entry, as would Final Approach, however, I’d be a bit surprised if he came over for this. If he did, I’d definitely take note.

    Get Me Out Of Here would be my main hope at the moment, and took 33’s ew.

    #386638
    Zamorston
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1135

    Recession Proof

    looks a cracker to me at a general 16’s….proven form in big field handicaps and when last seen ran an absolute belter finishing 5th in the Supreme!

    Was just off the tails of 4 top quality horses in that race and was quite a few lengths clear of the 6th….that just only a month after a hard looking race in which it won….Will arrive nice and fresh for this and I’d be hopeful of a big run….

    Another one at 16’s that could be fascinating is David Pipe’s

    Bobby Ewing

    …..wouldn’t be the first time the Pipe’s turned in an outrageous piece of training to ready one after quite a while off…..was last seen thrashing Menorah by 10 lengths when under the guidance of NTD…

    #386639
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    Get Me Out Of Here would be my main hope at the moment, and took 33’s ew

    He was my main hope last year VTC,however connections are defineately looking towards 2 1/2m these days and the Coral Cup looks ideal imo.Like GDC says Zarkandar is thrown in,I’m not totally convinced Newbury will suit so my selection is a confident Soldatino
    at 20/1,he ran a blinder last year for an inexperienced horse with 11-8,i expect he’ll get around 10-7 and thats a winners weight imo.

    #386640
    KINGFISHER
    Member
    • Total Posts 1508

    Recession Proof

    looks a cracker to me at a general 16’s….proven form in big field handicaps and when last seen ran an absolute belter finishing 5th in the Supreme!

    Zam your horse won it last year like the decent horse he is but my

    Soldatino

    gave him a stone and was beaten barely 3L, this year they will just about carry the same weight so i’m pretty hopeful he’ll reverse that form! :)

    #386692
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 421

    Zarkandar has to win this to justify his place in CH market, doesn’t he?

    #386712
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Win it or be an unlucky/tenderly handled loser. If it is his first run of the season he would be entitled to be a little rusty, but you cannot imagine him having a hard race if the Champion is the real target.

    #386805
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    I’ll not be betting anything yet, but I’ll narrow it down to that handful for the time being. If pushed, Get Me Out Of Here would be my main hope at the moment.

    He was my main hope last year VTC,however connections are defineately looking towards 2 1/2m these days and the Coral Cup looks ideal imo.Like GDC says Zarkandar is thrown in,I’m not totally convinced Newbury will suit so my selection is a confident

    Soldatino

    at 20/1,he ran a blinder last year for an inexperienced horse with 11-8,i expect he’ll get around 10-7 and thats a winners weight imo.

    Right with you Gord. When the betting came up on Wed after racing I struck the very first bet on Soldatni to create some interest which it did so I’ve backed him 5 times since for bits and pieces but to be honest I am airing on the side of caution.

    No secret that this is 100% Soldatino’s target and NH’s deliberately been keeping him under wraps to protect his h’cap mark.

    I don’t think it’s as much to do with inexperience as it is him not being fully matured, either way he will have to be a better horse this season that last to win this. The fact he may only carry 10-7 this year is meaningless as he’s no better off than any the others around his mark who will also carry less than they would have last year..

    I’m hoping he does not run at Ascot next week and will take it from there before deciding whether to back him again or not.

    His other entries A Media Luz and All the Aces don’t appeal at all but Darlan could go well if he actually runs.

    He ran the perfect trial the other day when the pace was furious and he coped with it with no trouble. However Nicky had to decide whether to run him or not. Barry gave him as easy a race as possible the other day as there was no need to be winning by a big margin with his place all but already guaranteed it’s under consideration but his main target is the Supreme.

    John Quinn and Jonjo both lost out when they tried the Tote/Supreme double with Get Me Out Of Here and Recession Proof so it’s a big ask from a young horse that he may or may not be asked to try.

    There’s always one or two gambles in this race at big prices and a few names are already flying about as going for a touch.

    I’ve got one for you :wink: . Lucy Waldham’s Alarazi 25/1 claimed to have badly needed the run at Sandown and has been laid out for this. It’s not one I would have picked as I thought it was a bit of a monkey since he was beaten by Credit Swap last year but I am assured he’s anything but so I’ve backed it at 25/1 ew..

    Sodatino and Alarazi against the field for me.

    #387037
    Hurdygurdyman
    Member
    • Total Posts 1555

    He was my main hope last year VTC,however connections are defineately looking towards 2 1/2m these days and the Coral Cup looks ideal imo.Like GDC says Zarkandar is thrown in,I’m not totally convinced Newbury will suit so my selection is a confident Soldatino
    at 20/1,he ran a blinder last year for an inexperienced horse with 11-8,i expect he’ll get around 10-7 and thats a winners weight imo.

    Another point is if you are right and Soldatino 148 carries 10-7 then Darlan 137 who is half his current odds would be running 4lbs out of the handicap. I think I’m right in saying he’s still to get a new mark for beating Jump City 138 but even at that how much can the handicapper put him up for winning by such a short margin?

    One things for sure for JP’s number one AP McCoy to be riding him he’s going to have to go up a fair bit or the top ones are going to have to drop out.

    #387042
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Darlan would carry a 5lb penalty, and a weight of 10.03 – within AP’a compass – assuming Celestial Halo runs, whiich looks likely.
    Doubt last year’s principals will feature this season, as it was a re-arranged race with poorer prize money and smaller field than normal.

    #387223
    TomBarkley87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1792

    Paul Nicholls has been on record to say that Celestial Halo is very much an intended runner, but is more coy with regards to his plans for Zarkandar. I worked out though that if he does go, he’ll be carrying 10st 10lbs. First time out or not, he’s surely got to win to be considered a potential Champion Hurdler.

    @TheTomBarkley87

    #387251
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 942

    PWise makes his selection tomorrow, looking at oddschecker both Raya Star and Darlan are ‘blue’ so take your pick or will he select both!!

    #387327
    Aragorn
    Member
    • Total Posts 2208

    Its about time the top weights were allotted over 12st to carry in these supposedly competitive handicaps to stop Mr Nicholls from using his top weights to prevent his rivals running off their correct mark.
    The highest winning mark I could find for a recent winner of the race is 144, so Zarkandar would have plenty to do on a mark of 151 especially on seasonal debut. Though I think running him in that would give connexions a more realistic idea of his Champion Hurdle chances than running in one of the small runner conditions races. While the 8/1 might look tempting, if he goes there not fully tuned up, he will be meeting horses trained specifically for that race.

    Rooster Booster was beaten a short head off 166 in 2004.

    Celestial halo is unbeaten in handicaps and won the 2009 Elite hurdle off his current mark. He deserves his place in the lineup.

    #387337
    TomBarkley87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1792

    This almost seems a redundant discussion to me, should Zarkandar show up. If he’s there, he can’t lose. There’s no need to go value hunting. Anything you get each way cannot be as much of a banker as he is to win. Let’s keep it simple 8)

    @TheTomBarkley87

    #387348
    GDC
    Member
    • Total Posts 942

    Boz: You have to take into consideration that Mr Nicholls has quite ‘loudly’ stated that the Champion Hurdle is the only race that matters! Yes of course the prize money on offer for the Totesport is extremely good but the ‘kudos’ of winning the Championship is all they want!

    He is without doubt extremely well treated IF the great man can get him there 90% fit, however despite having some 8s EW I get the feeling that IF he runs they will be happy with a nice run out and a place will suffice to blow the cobwebs away!

    Soldatino (KFs selection prior to Tom Segal) is the forgotten horse and has been trained specifically for this race and his trainer has an awesome record at the track and this race itself. 16s still available with Joes and Laddies :wink:

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