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Mixed feelings about this. Its a shame in some ways hes finished as a NH horse but at the same time if anything had happened to him on the Tuesday I doubt many of us would be able to enjoy any of the rest of the week. Look forward to seeing how his flat twilight career pans out.
On another note I read/hear he was drifting like a barge before it was officially announced. This bookmaker sponsoring yards malarky is a massive problem for the game. The sport relies on them too much and for me there is a slight integrity issue that stems from that relationship.
Tough call for them anyway regarding Cheltenham. Its a very winnable champ hurdle but the worst case scenario is the very worst case sadly. I’d like to think if theres any doubt at all in their minds they give it a swerve and hes only lining up if they are as convinced as they can be.
To be fair he did all he could do and Its great to see he hasnt completely fallen out of love with the game. I just think and in fairness this is more aimed at the wider discussion outside this forum, its largely a race of NH trainers tonight. No classic generation to give weight to. No Godolphin, Shadwell, Juddmonte, Aidan O’Brien etc…. just a bit of perspective needed probably for those lofty targets if they are even targets.
Its also a 4yo+ novice race tonight. Lots of that field unraced on the flat. Lots of them probably not very good to be eligible at the age of 4. Talk of Melbourne Cups, Ebors, Group 1s at the age of 9 is wild
It was nice to see him enjoying himself again although I dont think it really proves anything regards Cheltenham or a flat campaign. Hes 9, it was a novice race. How many novice winners bolt up and dont turn out to be anything special? Lots.
I like Lecky Watson a lot too, I think he’s potentially had a bit of the handbrake treatment and I wonder if Stellar Story is another case for Elliott. They’d be my main two fancies at the moment, neither run in a handicap yet, neither gone beyond 3m but I think they’ll both thrive for it. Gorgeous Tom comes from that same Brown Advisory race which didn’t look the strongest at the time and I don’t think it was for a Brown Advisory but they’ve handicapped it lower than typical too. I’m less keen on him because he’s had a go in a big handicap already in the Hennessy and similar sentiments for Quai De Bourbon who unseated in that same Brown Advisory, obviously already had a go and been placed in an Irish National.
One who I genuinely couldn’t have is Iroko mainly because I can’t think of many who run well in the race in defeat and come back and do better with more weight a year later, just rarely happens and plenty seem to try and get backed.
I suspect if they changed the weight date it could potentially impact on numbers at Cheltenham in those staying chases, handicap and graded. If Aintree was the original intended target for the Gold Cup winner, does he actually run in a Gold Cup and risk put his mark up by a stone? Same for things like Corach Ramblers winning year, possibly doesnt run in the Ultima too that year maybe? It won’t just be Cheltenham either, there are other big staying handicap chases prior to Cheltenham that could see numbers suffer
I think Secret Squirrell ran yesterday didn’t he? So that might be one to drop depending on how he comes out of it. How many 40k novice flat races have you come across in 25 years AP? Might not be many defecting for that pot.
Prize money might have done for them here. I doubt the race would have even filled if it was just normal prize money for this sort of race
To be honest the out of the handicap thing is unlikely to be an issue as its a 26lb weight range and you get 14 on top of that to be allowed to run out of the weights so thats 40lb worth of scope. It is going to be an issue in the Cross Country probably as that is a limited handicap anyway so not the full 26lb range and Stumptown is quite high on his rating if an intended/likely top weight
No ceiling. Race has not filled the last few years so mark is probably not too relevant except that because there is no ceiling, if something really highly rated headed the weights the new rule for all handicaps is you can’t run if you are 15lbs out of the weights. Given the champion hurdle is desperate this year I cant see that scenario happening as anything north of 150 probably gives the Champion Hurdle a go instead. Secret Squirrell probably fine if this is the plan imo
Just seen the entries on RP and by my reckoning 8 are higher priority than CH and he is one of 12 who are flat unraced so could still ne problems with 20 of the entries meeting one of the criteria
Incidentally if I’m reading that correct and Willie wants a run Daddy Long Legs is higher up the order than CH because hes had 2 flat runs and a top 4 finish.
I dont even know what a good outcome would be for CH if he runs at Southwell. How on earth do you assess the merits of the run and then apply that to a completely different race at the festival?
26 entries as of 9am this morning according to the Racing Post (doesnt close until noon today). There could be two divs maybe but it splits the pot up and I’m going out on a limb here to say the prize money is the reason CH is going to Southwell and not some other similar AW race worth 5K. Theres no world where CH gets ballotted out is there lol. Can see a few connections kicking off about this and justifiably so imo.
